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07-06-2020, 12:34 AM
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#106
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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7/5/20
Maybe Horses
7 bets (3 hit board) 0 won/ 3 placed
GP 8------12.00, 7.40
Elp 8------ 5.20, 3.20
GP 11----- 6.80, 4.20
Pass Horses
41 bets (9 hit board) 1 won/2 placed/6 showed
Bel 5------#1 --------, -------, 16.60
Bel 6------#4 --------, -------, 7.60
Mth 8-----#4 --------, -------, 34.00
Mth 9-----#1 216.00, 83.00, 32.00
Mth 9-----#2 -- ------, 44.00, 21.20
Mth 9-----#4 --------,---------, 34.00
Elp 7------#5 --------,--19.40, 5.60
Elp 8------#8 --------, --------, 7.60
LARC------#9 --------, --------, 9.20
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-06-2020, 12:49 AM
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#107
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Overall (4 days)
Maybe
46 bets (3W/7P/2S)
Win 3/46 = 7% frequency
Minus 1.60/92 = 2% loss
In the money 12/64 = 26%
Pass
170 bets (5W/3P/15S)
Win 5/170 = 3% frequency
Plus 116.20/340 = 34% profit
In the money 23/170 = 14%
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-06-2020, 10:16 AM
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#108
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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I don't know if you're reading comments but I wanted to say a couple things that yesterday's 99-1 at Monmouth shows.
1) Crazy results like that will screw up your stats indefinitely. Overall your "pass" horses were underperforming your "maybe" horses by a substantial margin. Now it looks like the opposite is true, because of one horse.
2) If you're ONLY betting huge longshots, you basically have to bet every day of the year. (I realize this horse was in your "pass" not your "maybe" but the truth is the same.) Because when you're only hitting 5% of your bets, if you miss that one $150 horse and the profits that come with it, it can ruin your whole year. Some people can handicap and bet every year, but for those who can't, this type of betting can be mentally challenging.
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07-06-2020, 06:04 PM
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#109
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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I still believe I can overcome the poor (freak) start by concentrating on horses that show a glimmer of hope and passing those that show nothing.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 01:48 PM
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#110
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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7/8/20
Del 2
Pass #4
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 02:01 PM
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#111
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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GP 5
Maybe #1, #9
Pass #3, #4, #5
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 02:09 PM
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#112
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Kee 3
Pass #2, #4
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 02:19 PM
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#113
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Del 3
Pass #2, #5, #9
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 02:34 PM
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#114
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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GP 6
Maybe #7
Pass #1, #5
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 02:46 PM
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#115
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Kee 4
Maybe #8, #12
Pass #3, #4, #9, #10, #11
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 03:14 PM
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#116
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Del 5
Maybe #4
Pass #5
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 03:21 PM
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#117
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Kee 5
Pass #5, #6, #8, #9, #10, #12
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 03:38 PM
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#118
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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GP 8
Maybe #7
Pass #1, #8
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 03:54 PM
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#119
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Kee 6
Pass #2, #3, #4, #8, #11,
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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07-08-2020, 04:14 PM
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#120
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Del 7
Pass #1, #13
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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