Excel Spread sheet for Harness Factor Ratings

[Ray2000]

I ran 'Single Factor' analysis on 320 races.
All Impacts set to '0' except 1 factor

 ROI    Factor
 1.06     TM Post Bias
 0.91     Trainer UTR ($93 win outlier, more like 0.83)
 0.85     TM Power
 0.83     TM Class
 0.80     Early Speed
 0.78     TM Speed
 0.75     Earn Last5
 0.74     TM Pace
 0.73     Driver UDR
 0.64     2yr Wins

Scaling that to these Impacts
3    TM Post Bias
1    Driver UDR
3    Trainer UTR
2    Early Speed
3    TM Power
2    TM Pace
2    TM Speed
3    TM Class
2    Earn Last5
 1    2yr Wins


 Gives these selections for today, looks like all Morning Line Picks. 

We'll see what happens.....

HOP R14. . 4 5 6. . WENISTOPDREAMING® $7500 5/2 -- Jared Finn Red-Blk-B Go J D Finn

NFLD R11. . 4 6 3. . QUICK ARACACHE $20000 5/2 -- Ronnie Wrenn Jr C Brian Loney
NFLD R12. . 4 8 6. . ONE LAST LAUGH® 3/2 -- Ronnie Wrenn Jr Sam Schillaci
NFLD R13. . 4 2 1. . KELLY'S KINDNESS® 9/5 -- Kurt Sugg Jessica Roegner
NFLD R14. . 1 9 4. . PLAY IT AGAIN 5/2 -- Chris Lems Vernon Beachy
SCD R5. . 6 1 4. . ROCKN MOTION® $42000 5/2 -- Dan Noble Ron Burke

SCD R6. . 3 4 1. . EXHIBIT CLASS® $5000 4/1 -- Chris Page Blu-Mar Sean Smithpeters
SCD R7. . 10 8 5. . VINTAGE GAL® $9000 7/2 -- Chris Page Blu-Mar Jimmy Lupton
SCD R8. . 8 7 1. . CAMBASSADOR $20000 2/1 -- Jeremy Smith Red-Gra Parker Smith
SCD R9. . 5 3 1. . TIFFANY MARIE® 5/2 -- Chris Page Blu-Mar Ron Burke

MEA R3. . 5 9 2. . MISS MARTHA JONES 5/2 -- Brady Brown Mark Goldberg
MEA R4. . 4 6 3. . ANGIES LUCKEYLADY $20000 2/1 -- Mike Wilder Tim Twaddle
MEA R5. . 6 3 5. . JACKPOT JESSIE 3/1 -- Jerry Kehm Mark Goldberg
MEA R6. . 2 6 1. . CAPTAIN KRUPNIK $13000 7/5 -- Dave Palone Jenny Melander

[Ray2000]

Minor update has a few errors corrected and MAO in decimal on sheet Playlist



Tonight's picks where MAO > 1.51
MAO Track Race Picks
2.37 HAW R12. . 1 5 9. . Chick Magnet® 2/1 -- Kyle Husted Rob Rittof

2.30 M... R6. . 5 6 7. . Violet Stride® $280000 10/1 -- Brian Sears Mark Harder 175
1.51 M... R8. . 4 5 3. . Marloe Hanover $47000 3/1 -- David Miller R. Nifty Norman 421
1.84 M... R9. . 6 4 3. . Hammer Time® †Â 15/1 -- Steve Smith Harry Landy 413

also from the Mohawk SS
........WBSB R5. . 9,6,1. . Lovely Donna Ml 10-1
........WBSB R7. . 3,6,5. . Pristine Beauty Ml 10-1

Betting Win/Place and exactas A/B,C

GLA

[Ray2000]

FYI
================
Data is starting to show better performance on Races above TM 77
================






Strange TM Power numbers in this race today ...Saratoga Race #3

Spreadsheet Top Rated Horse is #4 if MAO> 6/5
COLUMBO ML 6/1 Dr/Tr JOHN STARK JR / MAUREEN SALINO (Toscano to Beckwith to Salino)
TM Class this Race 84

Columbo's Power is 81 ?? ...6 points higher than race ave 74
TM Power ratings
PP1 72
PP2 73
PP3 74
PP4 81
PP5 73
PP6 72
PP7 77
PP8 75


I'll donate some $$ to toga

[Ray2000]

Small changes

MAO now listed below Picks

New sheet "Exacta Min" shows probables for $2 Straight Exactas assuming Spreadsheet calculations for Win percentages are true (HA!) and using the old Harville approach.

Strickly an experiment, the larger probable payoffs are wildly different from the probs shown at racetime. I'm looking for a trend or group improvement.

BigM for Friday loaded.

[Ray2000]

Best Impact settings yet, . 0.97 ROI without Cherry Picking MAOs

 Impacts    
4    TM Post Bias
1    Driver UDR
4    Trainer UTR
4    Early Speed
3    TM Power
1    TM Pace
1    TM Speed
2    TM Class
0.5  Earn Last5
0.5  2yr Wins

MAO >7/5  <2/1 (Sweet Spot)
 
 Races   261 of 571 
 ROI      1.19 
 Win%     36%
 Return  620 
 Cost    522 
 NetP/L 98 
 Max      47 
  Play%     46%

Todays selections


1.14 HOP R14. . 4 1 6. . Theraputic $40000 5/2 -- Trace Tetrick Tyler George
1.47 MEA R3. . 4 5 8. . Heavy Handed Hanna 8/5 -- Jerry Kehm Mark Goldberg
1.81 MEA R4. . 8 7 5. . The Spinster 5/2 -- Aaron Merriman Herman Hagerman
2.03 MEA R5. . 5 6 4. . Trump This 12/1 -- Jim Pantaleano Steven Grisenthwaite
0.91 MEA R6. . 4 5 2. . Touchamatic $20000 5/2 -- Aaron Merriman William Bercury