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12-03-2016, 10:36 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 12/4
Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone thats interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 10 races with 4 on the Turf and 6 on Awd. (Not the norm w/Turf racing being what is in HK.)
Post Time Race #1 12:00 AM SUN. EST
TVG is offering live video for at least 7 races.
Theres also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#
For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action its available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true
Early selections to follow.
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12-03-2016, 10:38 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value its sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F
. B w/C-D-E-F
.C w/D-E-F
.D w/E-F
..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.
3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others itll be 80 Bets, but theres potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
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12-03-2016, 10:58 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 506
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Hello Nitro. Goo to see you back again today. You've been taking some hits from the board lately.
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12-03-2016, 11:00 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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EARLY SELECTIONS
I wont be posting any live selections for Hong Kong this morning.
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
There are 3 very competitive races this morning: #6 -#8 & #10 (watch the money in #6)
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns as well.
R#1 - 1200M (6F) Awd
....1-4 W/ 7-5-9-2 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 or #9 possibly moving up Live)
R#2 - 1800M (9F) Awd.......5-1 W/ 8-6-2-10
.12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 or #2 possibly moving up Live)
R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf.......3-4 W/ 9-1-8-11.......1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 or #8 possibly moving up Live)
R#4 - 1200M (6F) Awd.......1-5 W/ 6-3-10-2
...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #12 with the possibly of #3 moving up Live)
R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Awd ..1-2 W/ 4-7-5-9......2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 or #5 possibly moving up Live)
R#6 - 1000M (5F) Turf.......13-1 W/ 8-3-2-14-6
2:35 AM EST.
(Also of interest are: #14 or #6 possibly moving up Live)
R#7 - 1400M (7F) Turf
......1-4 W/ 2-3-6-7........3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 or #6 possibly moving up Live)
R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Awd....1-2 W/ 4-3-12-9
...3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 possibly moving up Live)
R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf........5-1 W/ 3-6-13-11-10.....4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 or #13 with possibly moving up Live)
R#10 - 1200M (6F) Awd......1-2 W/ 11-3-12-8..........4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 possibly moving up Live)
GL if youre playing!
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12-03-2016, 11:10 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kevb
Hello Nitro. Goo to see you back again today. You've been taking some hits from the board lately.
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Hey Kev! How's it going? Good I hope!
Yeah, getting bashed around here seems to be par for the course. It doesn't really phase me, but it can be distracting at times. I generally will respond with the same fervor if necessary.
At least there are some who can still be civilized.
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12-04-2016, 12:30 AM
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#6
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Nitro, if you wouldn't mind, could you add the field size of each race in your early selections?.....Thanks
Just wanted to see if you analyze before scratches pre-race or after.
Last edited by ReplayRandall; 12-04-2016 at 12:32 AM.
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12-04-2016, 12:57 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Nitro, if you wouldn't mind, could you add the field size of each race in your early selections?.....Thanks
Just wanted to see if you analyze before scratches pre-race or after.
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Not at All. GL
Field Sizes: (No Early scratches)
Code:
#1 12
......
..#6 - 14
#2 14
......
..#7 - 14
#3 12
......
..#8 - 14
#4 12
......
..#9 - 14
#5 14............#10 12
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12-04-2016, 01:24 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Race #1 - #2 - #3
NOTE: All Dutch calculations based on U.S. $ Odds and returns.
R#1 - 1-4 W/ 7-5-9-2...........Results: 4-5-11-2 (2nd choice Early $37 Quin & Live)
Dutch 1 ( 15/1 ) 4 ( 2.2/1 ) 7 ( 8.7/1 ) - $51.00 $51.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 8.7 14.0 BET PRF
$7 $19 $30
$30 $10 $7 $47 $51 109%
$98 $98 $98
Quinella - 1 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live
R#2 - 5-1 W/ 8-6-2-10.......Results: 1-7-6-10 (2nd choice Early & Live)
Dutch 5 ( 6.1/1 ) 1 ( 1.8/1 ) 8 ( 11/1 ) - $56.00 $107.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.8 6.1 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $14 $24
$48 $19 $11 $78 $56 72%
$134 $135 $132
Quinella - 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live
R#3 - 3-4 W/ 9-1-8-11............. Results: 11-3-9-4 (6th choice Early $37 Quin/$144 Tri - & Live)
Dutch 3 ( 3.8/1 ) 4 ( 16/1 ) 9 ( 1.5/1 ) - $0.00 $107.00
Code:
PASS Profit margin below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 3.6 16.0 BET PRF
$5 $9 $34
$34 $18 $5 $57 $28 48%
$85 $85 $85
Quinella - 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live
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12-04-2016, 02:19 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Race #4 & #5
R#4 - 1-5 W/ 6-3-10-2.........Results: 1-7-5-12 (Top choice Early & Live)
Dutch 1 ( 3.7/1 ) 5 ( 9/1 ) 6 ( 4.2/1 ) - $47.00 $154.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.7 4.2 9.0 BET PRF
$9 $10 $20
$20 $18 $9 $47 $47 100%
$94 $94 $94
Quinella - 3 for 3 Early & 3 for 3 Live
R#5 - 1-2 W/ 4-7-5-9......... Results: 2-11-5-8 (2nd choice Early & Live)
Dutch 1 ( 20/1 ) 2 ( 6.1/1 ) 4 ( 11/1 ) - $217.00 $371.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
6.1 11.0 20.0 BET PRF
$14 $24 $42
$42 $25 $14 $81 $217 268%
$298 $298 $298
Quinella - 4 for 4 Early & 4 for 4 Live
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12-04-2016, 03:22 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Race #6 & #7
R#6 - 13-1 W/ 8-3-2-14-6......... Results: 14-8-1-9 (6th choice Early $307 Tri & 2nd choice Live)
Dutch 13 ( 4.2/1 ) 1 ( 4.3/1 ) 8 ( 13/1 ) - ( $67.00) $304.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.3 4.3 13.0 BET PRF
$11 $11 $28
$28 $28 $11 $67 $82 123%
$148 $148 $148
Quinella - 4 for 5 Early & 5 for 5 Live
R#7 - 1-4 W/ 2-3-6-7
Results: 6-1-2-4-3 (5th choice Early $32Quin/ $990Tri & 2nd choice Live)
Dutch 1 ( 2.6/1 ) 4 ( 3.5/1 ) 2 ( 25/1 ) - ( $56.00) $248.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 3.5 25.0 BET PRF
$7 $9 $52
$29 $23 $4 $56 $48 86%
$104 $104 $104
Quinella - 4 for 6 Early & 6 for 6 Live
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12-04-2016, 04:29 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Race #8 & #9
R#8 - 1-2 W/ 4-3-12-9........ Results: 4-9-14-8 (3rd choice Early & Live )
Dutch 1 ( 6.3/1 ) 2 ( 10/1 ) 4 ( 4.8/1 ) - $77.00 $325.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.8 6.3 10.0 BET PRF
$12 $15 $22
$22 $17 $12 $51 $77 150%
$128 $128 $128
Quinella - 5 for 7 Early & 7 for 7 Live
R#9 - 5-1 W/ 3-6-13-11-10........Results: 10-1-13-8 (Last choice Early-$40 Quin/ $418 Tri & Same Live)
Dutch 5 ( 5.8/1 ) 1 ( 7.2/1 ) 3 ( 19/1 ) - ( $45.00) $280.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.8 7.3 19.0 BET PRF
$14 $17 $40
$21 $17 $7 $45 $98 217%
$143 $141 $140
Quinella - 5 for 8 Early & 7 for 8 Live
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12-04-2016, 04:35 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Nitro if you are betting less than 2-1 I'm killing you in the first place but more importantly if you miscalculate by 5% or better we are nailing you to the cross for Sunday worship.
So proceed cautiously Oriental Boy!
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12-04-2016, 05:07 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Nitro if you are betting less than 2-1 I'm killing you in the first place but more importantly if you miscalculate by 5% or better we are nailing you to the cross for Sunday worship.
So proceed cautiously Oriental Boy! |
Heaven Forbid! I've got enough Crosses to bear around here! LOL
I can't be held accountable for any miscalculations at 5 in the morning, but right now it looks like I'm within + or -1%. So we'll see what happens.
I'll be in church tomorrow with a smile on my face when the tithing is collected. 
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12-04-2016, 05:09 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,957
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Race #10
R#10 - 1-2 W/ 11-3-12-8........Results: 7-11-5-2 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch 1 ( 8.8/1 ) 2 ( 6/1 ) 11 ( 1.9/1 ) - ( $34.00) $246.00
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 6.0 8.8 BET PRF
$6 $14 $20
$20 $8 $6 $34 $23 70%
$57 $57 $57
Quinella - 5 for 9 Early & 7 for 9 Live
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12-04-2016, 05:13 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nitro
Heaven Forbid! I've got enough Crosses to bear around here! LOL
I can't be held accountable for any miscalculations at 5 in the morning, but right now it looks like I'm within + or -1%. So we'll see what happens.
I'll be in church tomorrow with a smile on my face when the tithing is collected.
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Tear it apart brother! I'm rollin dice on the ladies of Tinder so we shall see! LOL!
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