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02-11-2018, 05:59 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 113
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Picking pacelines
Hello,
I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.
Thanks,
Gun
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02-12-2018, 08:49 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 466
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Read the conditions of the race
Read the Past Performances from the bottom up for the history of the
horse
Form performance from the last line can tell a lot
Eliminate any horse over 30-1
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02-12-2018, 09:47 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topgun
Hello,
I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.
Thanks,
Gun
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Gun..
this is what makes this game so great.....
everyone can develop their own style on playing this game...
I suggest reading books and take it from there....
This can be a starter:
back in the day, someone develop the( +, -, or a + inside a circle) )approach to assign to each paceline......then take it from that
Mike
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02-12-2018, 10:31 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Audubon, PA
Posts: 427
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Here are some guidelines that may help:
try to pick pacelines from the same distance structure (sprint/route) and surface (dirt/turf/synthetic)
try to find a representative race within the last 3 or 4 races, if possible.
avoid lines that appear aberrant in a good or bad sense*, or where the horse experienced trouble in the running or at the start. Where possible, avoid races that were taken off the turf.
within the context of the above guidelines, prefer a line from a race at today's track to one at another track
most important - try to pick a line that as closely as possible matches today's projected pace.
Following these guidelines may lead to contradictory choices, so when in doubt pick a line as close to the top as possible
* for example, (don't pick) the only race in the visible past performances where the horse took the lead, or a race on an off track where the field was strung out through the running.
Practice and concentration while handicapping will improve your paceline selections over time. If you can handicap a couple races per day without betting and go back after the races are run to critique your own work, that is probably the fastest way to get good at picking pacelines. It's more an art than a science, so don't expect perfection.
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02-12-2018, 11:28 AM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,916
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topgun
Hello,
I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.
Thanks,
Gun
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I've not used paceline selection in well-over a decade, but I can tell you how I did it then.
First, I built a set of rules that start with the most preferred/represented lines, and worked backwards. Then I fine-tuned the rules.
I can tell you that this was not an easy endeavor. It took me many hours but was worth the effort.
Eventually, I coded it into my software. (Coded it as a programmable system for the end user.)
The key to making the entire process work is to begin with 40 or 50 horses, selecting paceline(s), and formulating "Why" as a set of steps.
For example:
(My opinion)
The most representative paceline in a dirt sprint race is the most recent dirt sprint in which the horse was within a head (win or lose) at the finish.
This approach tells you how good this horse really is. If he lost and is really better than this, he would have won. If he won by a head and was actually better, it wouldn't have been so close.
Dave
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02-12-2018, 11:47 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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For older horses, besides making sure that the distance and surface match, make sure that the pace line also matches the horses running style. Younger lightly raced horses might show two or three different running styles, but older horses, especially claiming types, usually have 1 established running style.
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02-12-2018, 12:01 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Looking at pace is key for form's sake but picking a paceline is relatively simple. If the horse has a competitive race see how it stacks up to everybody else's competitive race. If it doesn't the analysis is over. If it does and is overlooked you might have a bet!
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02-12-2018, 08:17 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 466
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Good points
May I ask did the horse have impact its last race or can one excuse last line and use the second line back and our evaluation again.
How much confidence would you have if the Horse record was 1-31
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02-12-2018, 09:24 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dlivery
Good points
May I ask did the horse have impact its last race or can one excuse last line and use the second line back and our evaluation again.
How much confidence would you have if the Horse record was 1-31
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Answers:
1) This might surprise you and the rest...you can use any line in PP!!
2) I limit horses to 10 races...if you couldn't win by then....or a 10% win record....TOSS
Mike
Last edited by mikesal57; 02-12-2018 at 09:25 PM.
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02-12-2018, 09:30 PM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I've not used paceline selection in well-over a decade, but I can tell you how I did it then.
First, I built a set of rules that start with the most preferred/represented lines, and worked backwards. Then I fine-tuned the rules.
I can tell you that this was not an easy endeavor. It took me many hours but was worth the effort.
Eventually, I coded it into my software. (Coded it as a programmable system for the end user.)
The key to making the entire process work is to begin with 40 or 50 horses, selecting paceline(s), and formulating "Why" as a set of steps.
For example:
(My opinion)
The most representative paceline in a dirt sprint race is the most recent dirt sprint in which the horse was within a head (win or lose) at the finish.
This approach tells you how good this horse really is. If he lost and is really better than this, he would have won. If he won by a head and was actually better, it wouldn't have been so close.
Dave
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Think about this Dave...
Actually YOU ARE using paceline selections in every race you do....
maybe its not by your hand but it is your set of rules that created it..
a PC doesnt run on its own ...you told it what to do and look for in each race
Mike
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02-12-2018, 10:20 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 1,488
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I'm no expert on that situation, but what's work best for me, is finding the best of the last three races run at today's distance and surface, and beaten by no more than 5 and 3/4 lengths. Those three races can be found anywhere in the chart or could very well be the very last three races run. I use the Taulbot pace software so these lines are automatically picked for me.
__________________
"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" - Ray Taulbot
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02-13-2018, 03:06 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Spaghetti Junction and Frustration Blvd.
Posts: 1,903
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Thank you Atlasaxis:
I use the very same rules/principles when picking my own pacelines for any particular race. Love Ray Taulbot...
__________________
Warm Regards,
Vinnie
"All Human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method"- F. Kafka
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02-13-2018, 03:16 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 1,488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinnie
Thank you Atlasaxis:
I use the very same rules/principles when picking my own pacelines for any particular race. Love Ray Taulbot...
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I know you do Vinnie! Good to see you again my friend! :-)
__________________
"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" - Ray Taulbot
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02-13-2018, 03:29 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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02-13-2018, 03:34 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upthecreek
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let us know how it does..
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