Interesting Derby stat I did here

[ny0707ny]

Im looking at the DRF pp's for the Derby races from 2002 up until 2007. Im seeing how many horses ran a triple digit figure before the Derby. To gauge a feel for the competition we have this year. I thought is was much weaker since last year. So far it is playing out that way.


2002- 8 horses
2003- 11 horses
2004- 14 horses
2005- 9 horses
2006- 12 horses
2007- 9 horses
2008- 2 horses? War Pass, Pyro...


2008 may change. We may get more horses stepping up. We also could get some not running and it can go lower. Even the low year of 8 though seems impossible to catch.

[slewis]

Originally Posted by ny0707ny

Im looking at the DRF pp's for the Derby races from 2002 up until 2007. Im seeing how many horses ran a triple digit figure before the Derby. To gauge a feel for the competition we have this year. I thought is was much weaker since last year. So far it is playing out that way.


2002- 8 horses
2003- 11 horses
2004- 14 horses
2005- 9 horses
2006- 12 horses
2007- 9 horses
2008- 2 horses? War Pass, Pyro...


2008 may change. We may get more horses stepping up. We also could get some not running and it can go lower. Even the low year of 8 though seems impossible to catch.

Interesting point. But there's a caveat here, and it's not the four legged kind.
Many of these stakes days where these superstars would post 3 digit figures (or not) have the racing secretaries carding 1 other race/no other races at the same distance/surface OR just one other 2 turn race i.e. Sam Davis stakes.
It gives figure makers, myself included, little to gauge against.
Take the Gotham .... I dont know if anyone noticed but you had that as the ONLY 2 turn race of the day!!! The remaing 9 races were at 6F.
I had a word with the NYRA stakes co-ordinator about it and he agreed with me. (I wonder if Haywood or Duncker picked up on it, I'll bet not) ANYWAY...
How do you come up with an accurate figure for the race????????????
ANSWER:
It's rhetorical, you cant.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by ny0707ny

Im looking at the DRF pp's for the Derby races from 2002 up until 2007. Im seeing how many horses ran a triple digit figure before the Derby. To gauge a feel for the competition we have this year. I thought is was much weaker since last year. So far it is playing out that way.


2002- 8 horses
2003- 11 horses
2004- 14 horses
2005- 9 horses
2006- 12 horses
2007- 9 horses
2008- 2 horses? War Pass, Pyro...


2008 may change. We may get more horses stepping up. We also could get some not
running and it can go lower. Even the low year of 8 though seems impossible to catch.

Well now I'm curious as to which triple digit horses won the races, was it always the highest triple digit horse? Or, always one of the higher triple digit horses.

jdl

[john del riccio]

Originally Posted by ny0707ny

Im looking at the DRF pp's for the Derby races from 2002 up until 2007. Im seeing how many horses ran a triple digit figure before the Derby. To gauge a feel for the competition we have this year. I thought is was much weaker since last year. So far it is playing out that way.


2002- 8 horses
2003- 11 horses
2004- 14 horses
2005- 9 horses
2006- 12 horses
2007- 9 horses
2008- 2 horses? War Pass, Pyro...


2008 may change. We may get more horses stepping up. We also could get some not running and it can go lower. Even the low year of 8 though seems impossible to catch.

NY,

Its early march, these 3yo's are in the processes flying through puberty so to speak. I would not be surprised to see several of them jump up in the coming weeks.

John

[asH]

how many triple digit horses ran triple digits races over a mile...dont count the Gotham!

[DerbyTrail]

I wrote a piece in '05 on this topic specifically focused on 100+ BSF's run by the end of February... Here's a glance at the lists for whoever wanted to know the horses that had triple digited (2003, 04, 05):


2003 Derby finish-Horse-100+ BSF as of 3/1/03:

• 1. Funny Cide 103
• 3. Peace Rules 102
• 4. Atswhatimtalknbout 105
• 5. Eye of the Tiger 102
• 6. Buddy Gil 106
• 10. Domestic Dispute 103
• 11. Scrimshaw 104

In addition to these, here are other 'Class of '03' horses that didn't make the Derby but had earned consideration at two or went on to good things later in their careers:

• Badge of Silver 108, 108
• Kafwain 102, 115
• Trust N Luck 106, 110
• Omega Code 103
• Philadelphia Jim 101
• Zavata 101, 102
• Why Why Why 102
• Vindication 102
• Toccet 101, 102
• Southern Image 102
• Singletary 100 (!!!)
• Sky Mesa 103
• Composure (f) 101

2004 Derby finish-Horse-100+ BSF as of 3/1/04:

• 1. Smarty Jones 105
• 2. Lion Heart 103
• 3. Imperialism 101
• 5. The Cliff's Edge 101
• 7. Read the Footnotes 105, 113
• 12. Master David 100

These other '04 sophomores were 100+ runners:

• Cuvee 101, 103
• Value Plus 108
• Silver Wagon 106
• Second of June 113, 111
• Redskin Warrior 105
• Rock Hard Ten 101
• St. Averill 102
• Chapel Royal 100
• Madcap Escapade (f) 108

2005 Triple Crown Nominees with 100+ BSF as of 2/23/05:

• Afleet Alex 102 (6f Sanford)
• Declan's Moon 107 (7f DMR Futurity)
• Diligent Prospect 102 (5f MSW)
• Roman Ruler 106 (7f DR Futurity), 103 (6.5f Best Pal)
• Going Wild 104 (6f MSW), 100 (9f Sham)
• High Fly 100 (8f Aventura)
• Proud Accolade 100 (8.5f Champagne)
• Galloping Grocer 102 (9f Remsen)
• Rockport Harbor 102 (9f Remsen)
• Sweet Catomine (f) 102 (8.5f BC JF)

[Murph]

Originally Posted by slewis

Interesting point. But there's a caveat here, and it's not the four legged kind.
Many of these stakes days where these superstars would post 3 digit figures (or not) have the racing secretaries carding 1 other race/no other races at the same distance/surface OR just one other 2 turn race i.e. Sam Davis stakes.
It gives figure makers, myself included, little to gauge against.
Take the Gotham .... I dont know if anyone noticed but you had that as the ONLY 2 turn race of the day!!! The remaing 9 races were at 6F.
I had a word with the NYRA stakes co-ordinator about it and he agreed with me. (I wonder if Haywood or Duncker picked up on it, I'll bet not) ANYWAY...
How do you come up with an accurate figure for the race????????????
ANSWER:
It's rhetorical, you cant.

I think the same can be said for about all of the preps so far. I cannot assign any faith in triple digits off of the SA surface. Then there is the Risen Star and some other odd pace lines. Who knows if times reported at GP are even correct now.

So many questions are leading up to this Derby there's a point for me that any betting on it will break off here pretty soon. Probably right after the Wood Memorial.

Muprh

[ny0707ny]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Well now I'm curious as to which triple digit horses won the races, was it always the highest triple digit horse? Or, always one of the higher triple digit horses.

jdl

Hello.

2002- triple figure horse won
2003- triple figure horse won
2004- triple figure horse won
2005- -
2006- triple figure horse won
2007- triple figure horse won

It is safe to say a horse that ran a triple digit beyer before the Derby, has the most chance of winning. I don't have data before 2002 since I didn't really follow horse racing before that year. The highest triple digit does not always win.

So out of 6 years the triple digit horse won 83% of the time.

[OTM Al]

2005 was the great Bellamy Road pace collapse. Afleet Alex was by far the best in that field but got caught a little to close to that white hot pace. He made up for it later.

[ny0707ny]

I believe I had Afleet Alex to win that year. Yeah I remember the pace in that race was so quick.

I am not a fan of any stats really, but the triple digit stat is one that holds up for the Derby year after year.

[Marshall Bennett]

This year's crop does seem weak . The prep races thus far have been weak as well and this weekend's Tampa Bay Derby is no exception

[DanG]

Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett

This year's crop does seem weak . The prep races thus far have been weak as well and this weekend's Tampa Bay Derby is no exception

2nd year in a row with the division leader and your calling it weak MB?

(He says in his best Jersey / transplant / provincial / Tampa style!)

[Hank]

Depth wise this crop Might prove weak,however IF War pass and Pyro prove legit and provide us a few battle royals I'll take it.

[JPinMaryland]

In 2005 Giacomo did indeed run a 100 Beyer although I think it was way back. Here is another partial list of derby winners and their highest beyer adn where they finished in that race,

the last winner with a non 100 BSF per race, was Sea Hero in 1993:

2004 SMARTY JONES 107 OP Arkansas Derby G2 [1st] 4-1*
2003 FUNNY CIDE 110 AQU Wood Memorial G1 [2nd]13-1
2002 WAR EMBLEM 112 SPT Illinois Derby G2 [1st]20-1
2001 MONARCHOS 103 AQU Wood Memorial G2 [2nd]10-1
2000 FUSAICHI PEGASUS 111 AQU Wood Memorial G2 [1st] 2-1*
1999 CHARASMATIC 108 KEE Lexington G2 [1st]31-1
1998 REAL QUIET 107 SA Santa Anita Derby G1 [2nd] 8-1
1997 SILVER CHARM 110 SA Santa Anita Derby G1 [2nd] 4-1
1996 GRINDSTONE 100 OP Arkansas Derby G2 [2nd] 6-1
1995 Thunder Gulch…………4th Bluegrass
1994 GO FOR GIN 107 AQU Wood Memorial G1 [2nd] 9-1

[rastajenk]

Giacomo's 100 was in the Derby itself, after a string of mid-90's. His career top was 103. Outstanding.

That's why St. Giacomo has become the patron saint of redboarders and Beyer bashers everywhere.

Giacomo's career pp's