easiest top 6 i've ever had before KD draw

[Curln22]

Not worried they all get a 1 1/4 just some faster than others.
My point is he blew by Forte and got caught by Forte.
He breaks slow again, know way he makes that huge middle move and sustain for a additional 1/8 mile.

Horse should go into an Allowance race and let him grow.
This race has ruined a many good horses.
GL

[Aerocraft67]

Mage—you have to have faith he breaks. If he does—easily a top contender. If he doesn't—nail biter for a piece.

He broke slow in the Florida Derby and still gave Forte—remember him?—a run for the money. From dead last. I see that glass half full.

I don't see him as a closer, but he passed more horses that day than anyone in the field (!). Not the trip I want in the Derby, at all. I'd be delighted with him stalking fourth, more likely near the front of midpack, but satisfied with a decent midpack position early.

Aragona has Mage tied with two for eighth–tenth choice at 20-1. He has Kingsbarns, the other entering his fourth race (the others are at least on their sixth), sixth choice at 12-1. I sort of see them swapped. Not that I want 12-1. But I'd be happy with 15-1.

Questionable break and low key trainer help the price. I don't know about hype, but I'm betting this horse.

Tapit Trice—he's passed eight horses, but he's staring up at 15 on paper here based on pace ratings. He's got to be more forward, and you could say that about most of these.

But if he can do what he did in the Blue Grass, that absolves most of the worries. Just moved right up from behind midpack, wide on the turn, and waited for the leaders to sort out for the stretch, dueled with Verifying pulling away from the pack, then just hit that last boost to remove ambiguity about the win.

Was he checking out the crowd heading for the finish? Like, "hold my beer, watch me put away this horse." I'm pretty convinced I can't bet against this guy.

[Michael]

I think Kingsbarns is going to scratch and Skinner is going to draw in.

Is my comment dumb? could be.

think about it... does Pletcher really want Skinner to draw in? why doesn't this horse have a jockey named at this point?

Otherwise, who's left to ride KB? Jose is the only knee jerk name that came out of the hat.

While I'm at it... Two Phils is going to be the most overbet horse in the derby.
I also put Jace's road at 130/1

And just for fun... I'm going to predict Forte breaks out of the gate at 7/2

[Aerocraft67]

Tried to assess the field's penchant for going classic distances. I'm no pedigree handicapper, so I took a look at the distance figures from BRIS, DRF, and TFUS, as well as the AWDs in BRIS. I even looked up a few sires and damsires.

I was really hoping to confirm a play against Practical Move. Factors poorly with all the distance ratings. Good reason not to take a short price, right?. Then you see his damsire is Afleet Alex, a winner of the Belmont Stakes, among other things. Now I wonder if he can prevail on sheer speed and class he's already demonstrated, with just enough stamina to get the job done (that others might dismiss, helping the price).

The exercise did confirm lots of non factors I don't want to use. Wild on Ice, Angel of Empire, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder. But even those last two have distance influences from damsires.

I have to say, Kingsbarns ranks near the top of almost every distance factor. Another I'd hoped to play against that has me wondering.

I corroborated lots of the mid-priced runners I'm interested in. I'd say Verifying looks a little iffy—but he's by Triple Crown winner Justify!

Conflicting figures for Jace's Road, and Mage. Not enough to include the former or demote the latter. Tapit Trice's main benefit is that he's by Tapit. Otherwise doesn't stand out on distance ratings.

Two Phil's Tomlinson number (DRF) is way highest, but among the lowest from BRIS. Seems neutral-to-positive for the distance all considered. Such a wild card this guy.

The Japanese entrants check out on AWD, which is always the hope with foreign shippers.

[Curln22]

Mage.
We shall see, but to see a horse move forward in the Derby is a big ask.
He will be used defensively in my exotics but nothing heavy.

Trice.
Biggest issue with him if the pace is moderate as most folks are saying how wide will he be turning for home?

Now we have two horses adding blinkers for the race.
Palace Malice all over again?

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

The exercise did confirm lots of non factors I don't want to use. Wild on Ice, Angel of Empire, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder. But even those last two have distance influences from damsires.

Occasionally I'll look for patterns of improvement (or a lack thereof) in young horses like these. From just a quick glance through the Bris Derby PPs it looks like Angel of Empire, except for the second of his six races, has shown the most positive improvement (with regard to speed figures) in every race. And those incremental improvements have been been substantial (+8, +10, +11, +4). The first question, naturally, is whether he peaked in the Arkansas Derby or is ready to take yet another step forward, in which case he just might be a contender.

As a closer his Derby chances will be wholly dependent on the pace setup, and I'm utterly useless with Kentucky Derby pace projections, lol.

And I'm no pedigree expert, either, but his sire's and dam's AWD seem to be a little light compared with the main contenders.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Tried to assess the field's penchant for going classic distances. I'm no pedigree handicapper, so I took a look at the distance figures from BRIS, DRF, and TFUS, as well as the AWDs in BRIS. I even looked up a few sires and damsires.

I was really hoping to confirm a play against Practical Move. Factors poorly with all the distance ratings. Good reason not to take a short price, right?. Then you see his damsire is Afleet Alex, a winner of the Belmont Stakes, among other things. Now I wonder if he can prevail on sheer speed and class he's already demonstrated, with just enough stamina to get the job done (that others might dismiss, helping the price).

The exercise did confirm lots of non factors I don't want to use. Wild on Ice, Angel of Empire, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder. But even those last two have distance influences from damsires.

I have to say, Kingsbarns ranks near the top of almost every distance factor. Another I'd hoped to play against that has me wondering.

I corroborated lots of the mid-priced runners I'm interested in. I'd say Verifying looks a little iffy—but he's by Triple Crown winner Justify!

Conflicting figures for Jace's Road, and Mage. Not enough to include the former or demote the latter. Tapit Trice's main benefit is that he's by Tapit. Otherwise doesn't stand out on distance ratings.

Two Phil's Tomlinson number (DRF) is way highest, but among the lowest from BRIS. Seems neutral-to-positive for the distance all considered. Such a wild card this guy.

The Japanese entrants check out on AWD, which is always the hope with foreign shippers.

my problem with practical move is that the horse never comes off the rail. not only that but the horse hasn't seemed to completely overcome his gate issues as well. if those two things don't bother you the distance thing should. coupled with abbreviated fields with quite possibly lesser horses.

with the trip he had in the sa derby I would have expected to see a better finish than he gave. the joc almost choked the horse down in the race and didn't let him run...wait, wait, wait...wonderful. the rail magically opens once again for him. did Ramon not let him run because if he did he would've quit like a turd or did he not finish as good as he should have because he didn't let him run.

when that AAA jap horse was going to pass you you gonna have problems tackling better horses going even further. mandarin is lol'd at when compare to derma in the Japanese racing circles. he's literally a minor league horse.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Occasionally I'll look for patterns of improvement (or a lack thereof) in young horses like these. From just a quick glance through the Bris Derby PPs it looks like Angel of Empire, except for the second of his six races, has shown the most positive improvement (with regard to speed figures) in every race. And those incremental improvements have been been substantial (+8, +10, +11, +4). The first question, naturally, is whether he peaked in the Arkansas Derby or is ready to take yet another step forward, in which case he just might be a contender.

As a closer his Derby chances will be wholly dependent on the pace setup, and I'm utterly useless with Kentucky Derby pace projections, lol.

And I'm no pedigree expert, either, but his sire's and dam's AWD seem to be a little light compared with the main contenders.

I originally had kb and 2 pills as my 5/6th horses. but there's no way I could have any conviction with them over the likes AoE.

if playing triples I can go 10 deep for third and still not feel completely comfortable. even if tt wins and mage comes in second for me. if you get a page 2 bomb and you can have over a 5k triple and an exacta that doesn't hit 200. I refuse to wheel. it gets so expensive a 20 more race

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Occasionally I'll look for patterns of improvement (or a lack thereof) in young horses like these.

You know who hasn't shown a consistent progression of improvement? Forte. Yeah. The last TFUS podcast tipped me off to that. Several others also exhibited lack of progression, but they're not the favorite. In fact they're mostly non-factors by my reckoning on all the other merits.

To be fair, I like Forte because he's been winning with big figs all along. I mean, he's 6 for 7. But is he consolidating for a big step forward, or has he already arrived? Can he prevail with that? At a short price? He's already spotting the top figs by a few points. Maybe he's my bet against?

Practical Move, on the other hand, made a big leap in his 3yo debut and topped that a bit in the SA Derby, which came back with a good class figure, and his TFUS speed figure matches the biggest in the field from Two Phil's—that race ranked weaker in class, not to mention another surface.

One of my interest horses with an uninspiring progression pattern is Hit Show. His Withers looks better than his Wood. He's only entering his fifth race, so maybe excusable at a big price (>20-1).

[Curln22]

Practical Move jock stated after the S.A Derby
I did not want him to go too early.
I wanted to teach him to take dirt and to learn to Re break.
I agree, I thought it was a choke job as well until I heard that.

Don’t understand how peeps are annoyed he gets inside trips.
They run wide they whine, they save ground now an issue?
I love that he isn’t intimidated by being inside.

For a horse that is supposed to be distance limitations is undefeated around two turns, has never been passed in the stretch either.

Damn Sire Afleet Alex won the Belmont.


Since the jock change it looks like his gate breaks have improved some.

Perfect scenario for this horse, inside post.
Moderate pace with a Borel type trip should be very live turning for home.

Biggest question.
First time leaving Cali, does he take his race.

Very live horse
GL.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Practical Move jock stated after the S.A Derby
I did not want him to go too early.
I wanted to teach him to take dirt and to learn to Re break.
I agree, I thought it was a choke job as well until I heard that.

Don’t understand how peeps are annoyed he gets inside trips.
They run wide they whine, they save ground now an issue?
I love that he isn’t intimidated by being inside.

For a horse that is supposed to be distance limitations is undefeated around two turns, has never been passed in the stretch either.

Damn Sire Afleet Alex won the Belmont.


Since the jock change it looks like his gate breaks have improved some.

Perfect scenario for this horse, inside post.
Moderate pace with a Borel type trip should be very live turning for home.

Biggest question.
First time leaving Cali, does he take his race.

Very live horse
GL.

on the surface things don't look bad at all for the horse. it isn't until you drive into his races can you see the possible shortcomings. mandarin beats this horse if the race was at the derby distance. let that sink in. throw in the fact that no cali horse ran better away from home as well leads me to believe they might not be that good.

horse just doesn't have the makeup of running his biggest race to date. sure he might be able to be in decent position which should help some. but. even with this the horses in front might be better and right next and around to him as well.

I would never use the horse for 1st/2nd

[boys at tosconova]

kind of amazed that mage isn't getting much rah. i also see many pundits putting forte 1st as well as top 3 and top 5 with mage nowhere to be found.

[capitalman]

Originally Posted by capitalman

I can't imagine a top 6 without Angel of Empire.

I came pretty close. After reviewing all the data, my top 6 in order are
Tapit Trice, Skinner, Derma Sotogake, Forte, Two Phil's & finally Angel of Empire.
Actually, I only have a top 4 since I believe my 1st 4 are the only win candidates.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by capitalman

I came pretty close. After reviewing all the data, my top 6 in order are
Tapit Trice, Skinner, Derma Sotogake, Forte, Two Phil's & finally Angel of Empire.
Actually, I only have a top 4 since I believe my 1st 4 are the only win candidates.

where as mage gets nothing A&E gets all the rah....... a&e has done well in his races but they just don't grab me like i want them to. the horse hasn't been respected up until this race. (which isn't a good sign)

not my fav horse but one that i'm afraid of and prat is a beast.

after my top 3/4 there's plenty of grey as i see it. i could easily have him 4/5th

[Michael]

Is Rosario on Disarm or Cyclone Mischief ? back to square 1 for me

I have to re-do all my spreadsheets