Guessing that Confidence Name, Angel of Empire take some money. They are both reasonable horses to use 4th/3rd.
Confidence Game is the fun-name horse this year. Supposedly that matters a lot less due to CAW money, but I think he'll be lower odds than a lot of players seem to be projecting.
Angel of Empire looks like a mid-range price that wouldn't shock if he won.
Hit Show is another one to consdier. Depending on whether my name-theory plays out (hey look this is a message board and while I'm not always in absolutes I will bring up ideas that aren't herd approved) could be longer than most mentioned here in the Mid-long pricerange and Hitshow has a chance to run 4th/3rd. Lot of supertrainers and superowners in this Kentucky Derby.
HitShow has one of the hardest hitting superowners and same with the Trainer. They are going to pull out all the stops and health-willing, Hit Show will be as 'fit' as any we've been seeing (I'm talking Authentic level 'fitness).
Lord Miles was interesting in the Wood because he was the only horse in the Mucho Macho Man to do any running vs the grain(that and respecting the potency of the trainer). Was supposed to be a CRUSH in the Holy Bull but the syndicates and the public were smart that time (they are wrong often enough to win, forget what the demoralizing mid-wits whine about here and social media about them being perfect) well they were 'right' in the Holy Bull and hammered him down to 3-1, so it was a hard pass but the horse Lord Miles and the circumstances were a disappointing DUD.
Did bet him (inclusion not as the 'key') in the Tampa Derby at 25/1. Learned a little more about him not having a high ceiling.
In the Wood I made some light wagers singling Lord Miles exactly 3rd at 59/1. I had already won money on a Brittany Russell move-up earlier in the card where there was a lot of luck/favorable circumstances that played out. I was otherwise broke and happily taking that money home with me and not betting more that $10 on the Wood. The sonofabitch ran better than 3rd and won the Wood
payouts were generous and everyone was shocked. I was pissed that I didn't single both the Russell filly and both the Russell Wood move-up with the Saffie overlooked long shot in the Wood and just spent on the pick 5.
I know it wasn't that hard because in addition to the lucky win with the Russell move-up filly I had some very lean P3s multiple times (think it was an obvious chad Brown duo in leg3 IDK)....
But having followed Lord Miles, he's not good relative to this field. Hit Show is more dangerous out of the same race.
If we talk mid-range prices, I don't think Derma Sotogake(sp?) will be 10-1, but if he is 10-1, he's a key in multiple board slots including 'win'.
There's some 'unknown' stuff with this horse that is scary to key with.
There's also a fairly strong contingent of high quality supertrained horses (Forte, Verifying, Angel of Empire, Practical Move), but Derma Sotogake is also a supertrainer situation. It's just that when you have 4 or 5 of them, the potency of one of them is less dominant and you're facing a formidable opposition along with the trip and race dynamics.
I don't see this as a soft pace, and I see it as more of a danger to my key than as an advantage if he's sent to set the pace.