Hot/Cold Jockeys

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

IT is the mounts they get, nothing else. Horses run races, NOT riders.

If, for three weeks, the top stats jockey traded all mounts with a top ten journeyman, that fact would readily be exposed.

While I do agree with your sentiments I do feel like when the pressure is the greatest, when there is the most to win or lose, some riders have a knack for making the right moves.

[classhandicapper]

In every sport or game people have different levels of talent and skill. The same is true of jockeys. The difference in racing in that the horse is more important than the jockey. But the best riders almost unquestionably get their horses to run a little faster and make better strategic decisions over the long haul than bad riders. It's just hard to isolate because the horse means so much more and even good/bad rides is somewhat subjective.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

While I do agree with your sentiments I do feel like when the pressure is the greatest, when there is the most to win or lose, some riders have a knack for making the right moves.

yes but parimutuelly any slight advantage like that is overwhelmed by low odds.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

What do the majority of horse that throw their riders do? They run right with the field, and with no weight to carry, tend to be up front any way.

And drift out, go wide, run erratic, and many pull up.
Riders matter - fact of life.

Ever see a loose horse get trapped on the rail?
Ever see one with a rider get rapped inside (Arklow)?

Being up front is not winning.
Ask me how I know!

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

yes but parimutuelly any slight advantage like that is overwhelmed by low odds.

Actually, the data says it's the other way around.


-jp

.

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

IT is the mounts they get, nothing else. Horses run races, NOT riders.

If, for three weeks, the top stats jockey traded all mounts with a top ten journeyman, that fact would readily be exposed.

46zilzal's point is well taken - just look at Sammy Camacho - arguably the best rider of Tampa's 3 "elite" jockeys (along with Gallardo and Centeno). A >20% lifetime guy at Tampa. Goes to Oaklawn to ride King G. in the Arkansas Derby (loses every race at OP) and heads to Gulfstream after the Oaklawn meet. He's getting mid to bottom tier horses at GP and he's single digit win % now even with the top Miami riders in NY.

[Tom]

Horse do NOT Run RACES.
They RUN, the jockey pilots the race itself.
NO horse is going to save ground his own, move into a hole, or other tactical things jockeys guide them in to doing.

You think horse would save ground in a turf race and then swing out between horses at the stretch?

Yes, the horse runs, but on its own, it run where and when it want so to.

Most rider are probably capable. Those under 6& or over 20% are the extremes to watch.

Much like a car - no good without a driver. But some drivers will still drive off the road.

[jay68802]

One thing I have noticed. When a horse loose's his rider, the horse will either run on the rail or wide around other horses, hardly ever see them go through horses.

[46zilzal]

quote: Horse do NOT Run RACES.


Really but then you live an alternate reality most of the time so why am I not surprised

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

quote: Horse do NOT Run RACES.


Really but then you live an alternate reality most of the time so why am I not surprised

Take the time to read the rest of post, which explains what I meant by that to all but the most dense of minds.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Tom

Horse do NOT Run RACES.
They RUN, the jockey pilots the race itself.
NO horse is going to save ground his own, move into a hole, or other tactical things jockeys guide them in to doing.

You're getting close Tom!
Believe it or not MONEY controls the races by those who have the most to lose: the Insiders.
(It certainly isn't your Outsider betting $2, $10, $50 or even $100)

Generally speaking they have information about the animals O.A. physical and mental condition. This is provided to their jockeys of course who have a pretty good idea how their horse likes to run.
If their horse has these positive intentions then any decent jockey can bring it home.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Just like a confident Tiger Woods is radically better than a Tiger with no confidence, the same can be said of a jockey. Winning begets winning. Mike Maloney uses this as an angle, among many other factors, when he's betting. I highly recommend his book.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Just like a confident Tiger Woods is radically better than a Tiger with no confidence, the same can be said of a jockey. Winning begets winning. Mike Maloney uses this as an angle, among many other factors, when he's betting. I highly recommend his book.

GREAT book.

[NJDfan1711]

Originally Posted by Tom

Horse do NOT Run RACES.
They RUN, the jockey pilots the race itself.
NO horse is going to save ground his own, move into a hole, or other tactical things jockeys guide them in to doing.

You think horse would save ground in a turf race and then swing out between horses at the stretch?

Yes, the horse runs, but on its own, it run where and when it want so to.

Most rider are probably capable. Those under 6& or over 20% are the extremes to watch.

Much like a car - no good without a driver. But some drivers will still drive off the road.

I don't particularly like or use this feature, but if this forum had the "like" or "thumbs up" option, I'd press it a thousand times for this post.

Spot on.

[kdavis7837]

Hot and cold streaks can be any number of reasons, the main one is they are Human. Could be personal problems, could be hiding an injury, you name it.
I remember a Jock back in the late 70’s that was trying to get his family here ( to the US )and needed cash, fast, he was well liked, so for about a month he won on everything he sat his butt on. Couldn’t smell a race for about a month after he achieved his goal
Not so much anymore but these guys went through hell trying to maintain weight and sometimes the vomiting and sweat box took its toll, like I said any number of reasons, streaks happen to everyone of them, self inflicted or just plain racing luck but there going to happen