TCB Blood files for 2009 Crop

[Sysonby]

Thanks again for doing this! Looking forward to your analysis re Street Life

[turninforhome10]

Street Life is by Street Sense(Champion 2yo, Ky Derby Etc) Link to sire stats
http://www.equineline.com/extendedco...&ASCID=1443262
With 3 crops to race his best have had a tendency to be long sprinters AWD 7..44. With only 3 crops to race he seems to get precocious youngsters that are ready early to go distances up to a mile before others. So far, other than Japan he has not reproduced himself. His book would have had it's best mares in it's first 3 years so this is make or break year for him. He is a good juvenile sire but to attract classic mares he will need that extra push. He will need a stout mare to get a classic distance like 12 fur.
Street life comes from a long line of classic types coming from family 16-h
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDa.../Family16.html. Belmont winners include Shut Out, Chateaugay,Little Current and from branch -b Commendable.
I went back to War Feather to pull data. A Man O War mare who a Champion producer and went on to estabilsh her own branch of the family. Was then bred to Derby winner Burgoo King and produced one of the very best daughters of a very modest stallion. Then bred to a very nice stallion in Alibhai. Not easy to get a ticket. Penultimate broodmare sire. Then the very stout Greek Song who won the Endurance Handicap in Chicago. Then the versatile To Market who while not the best of his generation, he did have speed to go long setting track records at 6fur and 10fur.Then we get to the modern pedigree. Round Table, Roberto, Known Fact and Grindstone. Lot of distance here but no wins at 12 fur on dirt. I appreciate the names but this is a lot of turf speed. How that translates to 12 fur dirt is the question. While the stallions are rated high as chefs, I wonder if we can establish a new Chef De Race table for dirt just using solid and professional dirt tendencies of sire.
While I really like the pedigree to go long, 12 furs is too much for his guy.
First I am not convinced of he Peter Pan as key race as I am doubting Mark Valeski and while his closing speed looks good he is going to need to be closer as things are not going to be 45 and 109 to set him up.
I like him for a decent effort but feel he is a GrIII middle router effective at mile to 1 1/8th. Exotic chance if someone get silly up front early.

[Sysonby]

I think he might be a little better than that, Turningforhome, but not sure he's ready for a race like the Belmont yet. Thanks for the pedigree insight, always very helpful!

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Sysonby

I think he might be a little better than that, Turningforhome, but not sure he's ready for a race like the Belmont yet. Thanks for the pedigree insight, always very helpful!

I think he has the possibility to be a very nice animal. I am just hoping Chad Brown plays the right hand with him. He could be a monster based on pedigree and pace type for the grass and not throwing this around loosely. 1 1/8th mile on the weeds at Saratoga and use that big closing kick. Running him against animals that have the speed and don't back up could jerk the heart right out of him. This horse, I have liked and been watching since first race. I guess I am basing my assessment on the parties getting late 3yo season fever and running him over his head. Would love to see him put away after this and taken to Sar where Chad Brown can do no wrong on the grass or otherwise. Tab him for later if moved in the right spots.Will finish up a proper assessment by draw time . Thanks for reading.

[turninforhome10]

Street Life
Unstoppable U
Union Rags
Atigun
Dullahan
Ravelo's Boy
Fivesixteen
Guyana Star Dweej
Paynter
Optimizer
I' ll Have Another
My Adonis
This is it folks, post positions and final field. Putting something together today and will post later. Digesting the post's now.

[turninforhome10]

From Ground Hog Day. "Did you really want the weather"
http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

[turninforhome10]

Trying to find factors relevant to two turn races on dirt at Belmont. Would it be true that only races at 10 fur or more would be two turns?

[turninforhome10]

Well we have come to the Belmont. My Derby horse has swept the first two legs and is now looking for immortality. Can he do it? I say yes. Based on pedigree and performance, I have a strong feeling that the Belmont may be his best yet.
I'll Have Another has the strongest breeding for 12 fur of all those who have gotten 2 of 3 since 1978. Stage Door Johnny, Pleasant Colony, Sea Bird and double doses of female Danzig's. His sire is providing the speed and the bottom is the stout. I much prefer the AWD of the broodmare sire to be greater than the stallion. Speed over stamina is what wins classic races. Sure there are freaks but this guy has proven himself. His gallops are all that he needs to stay fit and not get to hot(temperament). He is a very happy horse right now and O'Neill has been spot on with prepping this guy so far, so I don't doubt he is ready.
Horses of concern
Again only opinions.
Street Life- Not today. Nice animal but getting his heart jerked out when the speed does not back up is only going be another check presented for cashing with no money in the account.
Unstoppable U- Two one turn races and works are not gonna put this guy on my radar.Nice animal but seasoning is much lacking. Junior was going at him pretty hard form the 16th home at Bel in the one turn allowance and the other Belmont entry from that race Guyanna Star Dweej bounced from the maiden win. McPeek says his two are both better than Sarava, and this one will have to run a race that might not be in him yet. See Dosage below.
Union Rags- Want to see this guy run a race without excuses and with the 12 fur and returning to the scene of one of his best efforts there will be no excuses today. Put up or shut up. That being said he is training well and Johnny V picks up mount after being on board on Sunday at Fair Hill for a very speedy 59.3 for 5fur. Was Johnny V taking a test drive? Matz did not seem very happy with the fast work. Turning for home we will find out if this guy is all hype or is finally putting his problems behind him. Mid Pack finish IMHO.
Atigun- I was high on this guy in Ark and the speed has yet to come back to him. Showing speed in works and has a nice pedigree based on crosses to Secretariat family members. Dynaformer on the bottom and the broodmare sire of Istan, Bluebird is a stamina source. I like this guy to move forward here as the more seasoned of the two McPeeK horses.
Dullahan- Everybody is high on this guy as being the spoiler. I am taking a stand that he won't fill the exacta. Wrong surface and wrong distance. His owner Jerry Craawford has made some pretty crazy claims IMHO. "Belmont a Stallion making race". He did not run in the Preakness based on the stallion pedigree "pedigree says he needed a rest" Huh? His Speed figures have been good but his Bris LP figures says his deep closes are an illusion. He has only had one LP figure above 100 and that was on the turf in the Palm Beach. Playing against here.
Ravelo's Boy- Florida invader rested after tough trip in Tampa. Working forwardly but pedigree is seriously lacking quality and dosage to perform this task, see below. Don't see it here
Five Sixteen- Needed blinks to go after N1x win at 1 1/8th and got beat by a pretty normal field. Salt Lake on the bottom and I am out.
Guyanna Star Dweej- The hat is on the desk, but I am pretty comfortable that it will remain there. See absolutely no reason to run him here and he might be the best as it will take 10 horses to beat him (Joke). Next
Paynter- Sire was very classy router and dam is full sister to Tiznow. A troubled trip in the SA Derby and finished a good 4the to I'LL Have Another. His Derby trial was good but a one turn mile. The race at Pim was very good and showed he can rate at move late at 2 turns with a nice 109 LP figure. I feel that race was a nice prep for the Belmont and he looks to have more in the tank. If this guy gets the lead and is doing it easy he will have a say in the outcome.
Optimizer- Does not belong and Lukas running these types to stay in the limelight is growing old.
I' ll Have Another- I have nothing left to say about this guy but thanks for giving me a reason to be a fan again. Can't do anything to get the value on him on win as souvenir hunters will kill his price. Looking at Brooklyn\Belmont Doubles for value. and maybe a pick 3. This horse has made my whole season. Future Book, SA Derby, Ky Derby and the Preakness and have cashed them all as documented through this thread.
My Adonis- Connections took this race last year with Ruler on Ice. I think this guy might surprise on Sat. Picks up Ramon and will be clear of all trouble outside. Either that helps him or kills him. IMHO allowing him to rate and make a big late run might help. Trujillo had him so close to the pace and came up empty. Ramon might change that and let him run like he did in the Holy Bull. My longshot
My Picks




Thanks everyone for following this thread. It has been a whole lot of fun and very profitable. This will be one of the last posts as we will switch gears and start looking at 2yo's at the Spa. Can never get started to early. Any input is welcome.

[Sysonby]

Thanks again for all the work you've put into this, turninforhome. Very nice sum up!

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

. Any input is welcome.

Thanks a lot for sharing your opinions. In particular your opinion on Dullahan has made me sit up and check the PP again. My only concern about IHA was that he got a lot of whip in the preakness..but then I realize, he finished 8.5 lengths ahead of 3rd place there. Speaks volumes, Excited for true contender.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Well we have come to the Belmont. My Derby horse has swept the first two legs and is now looking for immortality. Can he do it? I say yes. Based on pedigree and performance, I have a strong feeling that the Belmont may be his best yet.
I'll Have Another has the strongest breeding for 12 fur of all those who have gotten 2 of 3 since 1978. Stage Door Johnny, Pleasant Colony, Sea Bird and double doses of female Danzig's. His sire is providing the speed and the bottom is the stout. I much prefer the AWD of the broodmare sire to be greater than the stallion. Speed over stamina is what wins classic races. Sure there are freaks but this guy has proven himself. His gallops are all that he needs to stay fit and not get to hot(temperament). He is a very happy horse right now and O'Neill has been spot on with prepping this guy so far, so I don't doubt he is ready.
Horses of concern
Again only opinions.
Street Life- Not today. Nice animal but getting his heart jerked out when the speed does not back up is only going be another check presented for cashing with no money in the account.
Unstoppable U- Two one turn races and works are not gonna put this guy on my radar.Nice animal but seasoning is much lacking. Junior was going at him pretty hard form the 16th home at Bel in the one turn allowance and the other Belmont entry from that race Guyanna Star Dweej bounced from the maiden win. McPeek says his two are both better than Sarava, and this one will have to run a race that might not be in him yet. See Dosage below.
Union Rags- Want to see this guy run a race without excuses and with the 12 fur and returning to the scene of one of his best efforts there will be no excuses today. Put up or shut up. That being said he is training well and Johnny V picks up mount after being on board on Sunday at Fair Hill for a very speedy 59.3 for 5fur. Was Johnny V taking a test drive? Matz did not seem very happy with the fast work. Turning for home we will find out if this guy is all hype or is finally putting his problems behind him. Mid Pack finish IMHO.
Atigun- I was high on this guy in Ark and the speed has yet to come back to him. Showing speed in works and has a nice pedigree based on crosses to Secretariat family members. Dynaformer on the bottom and the broodmare sire of Istan, Bluebird is a stamina source. I like this guy to move forward here as the more seasoned of the two McPeeK horses.
Dullahan- Everybody is high on this guy as being the spoiler. I am taking a stand that he won't fill the exacta. Wrong surface and wrong distance. His owner Jerry Craawford has made some pretty crazy claims IMHO. "Belmont a Stallion making race". He did not run in the Preakness based on the stallion pedigree "pedigree says he needed a rest" Huh? His Speed figures have been good but his Bris LP figures says his deep closes are an illusion. He has only had one LP figure above 100 and that was on the turf in the Palm Beach. Playing against here.
Ravelo's Boy- Florida invader rested after tough trip in Tampa. Working forwardly but pedigree is seriously lacking quality and dosage to perform this task, see below. Don't see it here
Five Sixteen- Needed blinks to go after N1x win at 1 1/8th and got beat by a pretty normal field. Salt Lake on the bottom and I am out.
Guyanna Star Dweej- The hat is on the desk, but I am pretty comfortable that it will remain there. See absolutely no reason to run him here and he might be the best as it will take 10 horses to beat him (Joke). Next
Paynter- Sire was very classy router and dam is full sister to Tiznow. A troubled trip in the SA Derby and finished a good 4the to I'LL Have Another. His Derby trial was good but a one turn mile. The race at Pim was very good and showed he can rate at move late at 2 turns with a nice 109 LP figure. I feel that race was a nice prep for the Belmont and he looks to have more in the tank. If this guy gets the lead and is doing it easy he will have a say in the outcome.
Optimizer- Does not belong and Lukas running these types to stay in the limelight is growing old.
I' ll Have Another- I have nothing left to say about this guy but thanks for giving me a reason to be a fan again. Can't do anything to get the value on him on win as souvenir hunters will kill his price. Looking at Brooklyn\Belmont Doubles for value. and maybe a pick 3. This horse has made my whole season. Future Book, SA Derby, Ky Derby and the Preakness and have cashed them all as documented through this thread.
My Adonis- Connections took this race last year with Ruler on Ice. I think this guy might surprise on Sat. Picks up Ramon and will be clear of all trouble outside. Either that helps him or kills him. IMHO allowing him to rate and make a big late run might help. Trujillo had him so close to the pace and came up empty. Ramon might change that and let him run like he did in the Holy Bull. My longshot
My Picks




Thanks everyone for following this thread. It has been a whole lot of fun and very profitable. This will be one of the last posts as we will switch gears and start looking at 2yo's at the Spa. Can never get started to early. Any input is welcome.

There is your tri after IHA scratches. A brilliant ride by Johnny V and big horse who likes Belmont

[sammy the sage]

straight up good call...hopefully ya cashed it

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

straight up good call...hopefully ya cashed it

I spent the whole afternoon in the hospital being treated for cellulitis only to get home feeling like shit and see the tri came in and I had nada. Feeling better and look forward to the Travers and Haskell.

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

I spent the whole afternoon in the hospital being treated for cellulitis only to get home feeling like shit and see the tri came in and I had nada. Feeling better and look forward to the Travers and Haskell.

Sending well wishes to you ! Hope your feeling better fast !

[Sysonby]

Sorry to hear that, hope you feel better soon!