Jerry Brown is the president of Thoro-Graph, Inc.

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-no-hyperbole/


7-So, what can be done? Finally, some good news: because the industry makes so little from a dollar of CAW, eliminating a portion of their handle will not have anywhere near the same effect as eliminating the same amount of ordinary handle.

The first thing that has to happen is that the unfair advantage has to be taken away from the CAW players. Their special access to the pools has to be shut off with three minutes to post, like NYRA did with their win pool. But it can't be just cosmetic. It has to happen in all pools.

The second thing is to reduce their rebates. If you make twice as much from each dollar bet, even if CAW handle is cut in half, it's a wash. And if those two actions erode their edge to the point where they bet much less, good; that's the idea. We need to knock that third of the pools figure down by quite a bit, to salvage what's left of the non-CAW handle, and hopefully create more.

I'm using “salvage” advisedly, because we are hemorrhaging customers, and once they are gone, it is hard to get them back. Since I wrote the first draft of this letter one of those cracks has appeared. Golden Gate is closing, in an attempt to triage California racing. We need to stop the bleeding. And we need to do it right now.

[andicap]

"Right on," as we used to say. I pretty much quit betting due to the CAWs (and the drugs).

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by andicap

"Right on," as we used to say. I pretty much quit betting due to the CAWs (and the drugs).

Twitter

[Poindexter]

I would hope that the closing of Golden Gate Fields would be a huge wake up call to everyone in this industry. Stop buying the we need caw money bullshit and look at the big picture. This industry is going to ultimately screw everyone involved. While horsemen have had no problem screwing the bettor while they receive fatter purses racing in front of empty crowds, they ultimately will meet a fate similar to the ones many of the horsemen in Northern California are now facing. But as casual horse players all we have to lose is an opportunity to gamble. If we don't bet Golden Gate, we bet Santa Anita or somewhere else. Maybe ultimately we will have to bet races in Hong Kong, who knows. As horsemen they ultimately lose their career.

It is time for the people in this industry to start realizing that ultimately it is the casual/every day horse player that puts food on their table. Not the Caw, not the sharps, the public. The Caw and sharps will do their thing no matter what, as long as their is a profit to be extracted. When Major Venues continue to close and we have stats that almost 70% of the retail dollar is gone, it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. The racing industry is not in this for the longevity of this sport. No rational person could continue with a business policy that continues to drive people away from your business, yet the racing business does this year in and year out (it has been over 20 years). Horse players suck it up and get gauged until they cannot afford to anymore and horsemen buy the stupidity that an industry can be supported by a bunch of whales taking on each other and of course slot revenue.

They can spin the Golden Gate closing all they want, but I look at is simply sacrificing Golden Gate to save Santa Anita. Plain and simple, they realize that they are both ultimately going to go, so the will try and sell this as an attempt to drive up field size. They can run 10 horse fields every race and they can eliminate every illegal drug in the backstretch and they can buy the blessing of Peta, but as long as rebates remain part of this game this game will ultimately fail. As long as horseplayers and horsemen enable the industry to continue on with this stupidity, the sooner this game reaches it very predictable demise.

So please stop ignoring the elephant in the room. Racing has to feed the recreational gambler. How do they do that. A fair takeout. What is a fair take out. 8% wps, 10% double/exacta and 15% all other exotics. NO REBATES for anyone. They can even continue on with their jackpot nonsense although I think a 20 cent standard pick 6 with a 12% takeout would be much preferred. The recreational gambler feeds the rest (CAWS, sharps, wannabe sharps, advantage gamblers etc) A very simple concept. Why this very simple concept is so lost on so many will never cease to amaze me.

So whether you are a horsemen or a horse player, demand it. Take all these track closures for what they truly mean. Your industry is failing you. Yes field size is important and yes it would be nice if horses were not juiced, but the biggest reason they are failing you is they do not give the recreational gambler a chance to rationally stay in the game. Fix the pricing, build the sport then you worry about the other problems.

[metro]

lol, Brown preaching about rebates when he's surely been getting one for decades. It's only when CAWs started getting theirs, and it started hitting him in his wallet, that he cares about the edge someone else has.

Other than that I agree with most everything he says.

[cj]

I took me a while to catch on, but the instant access and the ability to bet last is the big advantage in my opinion. I think CRWs would still win a lot without rebates. I don't think they would win without last second access, and if they did it would be a much smaller amount than they win now.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I took me a while to catch on, but the instant access and the ability to bet last is the big advantage in my opinion. I think CRWs would still win a lot without rebates. I don't think they would win without last second access, and if they did it would be a much smaller amount than they win now.

betting last has a big advantage, just ask a hold em player.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I would hope that the closing of Golden Gate Fields would be a huge wake up call to everyone in this industry. Stop buying the we need caw money bullshit and look at the big picture. This industry is going to ultimately screw everyone involved. While horsemen have had no problem screwing the bettor while they receive fatter purses racing in front of empty crowds, they ultimately will meet a fate similar to the ones many of the horsemen in Northern California are now facing. But as casual horse players all we have to lose is an opportunity to gamble. If we don't bet Golden Gate, we bet Santa Anita or somewhere else. Maybe ultimately we will have to bet races in Hong Kong, who knows. As horsemen they ultimately lose their career.

It is time for the people in this industry to start realizing that ultimately it is the casual/every day horse player that puts food on their table. Not the Caw, not the sharps, the public. The Caw and sharps will do their thing no matter what, as long as their is a profit to be extracted. When Major Venues continue to close and we have stats that almost 70% of the retail dollar is gone, it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. The racing industry is not in this for the longevity of this sport. No rational person could continue with a business policy that continues to drive people away from your business, yet the racing business does this year in and year out (it has been over 20 years). Horse players suck it up and get gauged until they cannot afford to anymore and horsemen buy the stupidity that an industry can be supported by a bunch of whales taking on each other and of course slot revenue.

They can spin the Golden Gate closing all they want, but I look at is simply sacrificing Golden Gate to save Santa Anita. Plain and simple, they realize that they are both ultimately going to go, so the will try and sell this as an attempt to drive up field size. They can run 10 horse fields every race and they can eliminate every illegal drug in the backstretch and they can buy the blessing of Peta, but as long as rebates remain part of this game this game will ultimately fail. As long as horseplayers and horsemen enable the industry to continue on with this stupidity, the sooner this game reaches it very predictable demise.

So please stop ignoring the elephant in the room. Racing has to feed the recreational gambler. How do they do that. A fair takeout. What is a fair take out. 8% wps, 10% double/exacta and 15% all other exotics. NO REBATES for anyone. They can even continue on with their jackpot nonsense although I think a 20 cent standard pick 6 with a 12% takeout would be much preferred. The recreational gambler feeds the rest (CAWS, sharps, wannabe sharps, advantage gamblers etc) A very simple concept. Why this very simple concept is so lost on so many will never cease to amaze me.

So whether you are a horsemen or a horse player, demand it. Take all these track closures for what they truly mean. Your industry is failing you. Yes field size is important and yes it would be nice if horses were not juiced, but the biggest reason they are failing you is they do not give the recreational gambler a chance to rationally stay in the game. Fix the pricing, build the sport then you worry about the other problems.

You haven't been paying attention...trainer Jeff Mullins had the balls to say straight out what the "industry" has been planning all along. The grand plan is for the "industry" to align itself with the casino (and now the sports betting) side of the gambling business, and have the casino and the sports bettors fund the horse racing purses...and to hell with the complaining "recreational horseplayer". The money that they make from the recreational horseplayers and the rebated computer betttors will be a mere pittance compared to the money that they will be raking in from slots and sports betting, once the sports-betting business gets well established.

Only the rebated computer groups will miss the "recreational horseplayer" once he becomes extinct...but then these groups will still have the option to return to Wall Street...or wherever else they came from. That's why it's imperative that the "recreation horseplayers" come up with some other wagering option(s) too...because one thing is certain. Our participation in this game isn't appreciated now when it's still needed...so, we can guess how we will be treated in a couple of years, when they won't need us at all anymore.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

So please stop ignoring the elephant in the room. Racing has to feed the recreational gambler. How do they do that. A fair takeout. What is a fair take out. 8% wps, 10% double/exacta and 15% all other exotics. NO REBATES for anyone. They can even continue on with their jackpot nonsense although I think a 20 cent standard pick 6 with a 12% takeout would be much preferred. The recreational gambler feeds the rest (CAWS, sharps, wannabe sharps, advantage gamblers etc) A very simple concept. Why this very simple concept is so lost on so many will never cease to amaze me.

So whether you are a horsemen or a horse player, demand it. Take all these track closures for what they truly mean. Your industry is failing you. Yes field size is important and yes it would be nice if horses were not juiced, but the biggest reason they are failing you is they do not give the recreational gambler a chance to rationally stay in the game. Fix the pricing, build the sport then you worry about the other problems.

I just don't understand how you keep saying "no more rebates" like it can actually happen with a law being passed or something. Well I understand the dream of turning back the clock to 1997, but it can't be done. Organizations other than racetracks are giving the best rebates! How do you legally ban independent bet takers from offering rebates?

There is one way it might work. Every single racing organization would have to cut takeout to your fantasy low levels, all at once, with no exceptions.

I'll wait for the laughter to subside.

Okay, so in fantasyland, if that happened, then the ADWs couldn't afford to give 10% rebates and survive. But if it didn't happen in some mass action by 30 independent states and organizations ALL DOING IT AT ONCE, then all the business from the "whales" would just go to the places they can still get rebates. Do you think everyone in racing would unify in this way? It's just fantasyland. Your IDEA is right but we're way past the point it can happen.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You haven't been paying attention...trainer Jeff Mullins had the balls to say straight out what the "industry" has been planning all along. The grand plan is for the "industry" to align itself with the casino (and now the sports betting) side of the gambling business, and have the casino and the sports bettors fund the horse racing purses...and to hell with the complaining "recreational horseplayer". The money that they make from the recreational horseplayers and the rebated computer betttors will be a mere pittance compared to the money that they will be raking in from slots and sports betting, once the sports-betting business gets well established.

Only the rebated computer groups will miss the "recreational horseplayer" once he becomes extinct...but then these groups will still have the option to return to Wall Street...or wherever else they came from. That's why it's imperative that the "recreation horseplayers" come up with some other wagering option(s) too...because one thing is certain. Our participation in this game isn't appreciated now when it's still needed...so, we can guess how we will be treated in a couple of years, when they won't need us at all anymore.

I agree with everything you said and how they view us. Of course they will need us at some point---when they all start eating each other and the states take the casino money back to pay for whatever---but we'll mostly be dead or betting on football by that point.

[Dave Schwartz]

I just don't understand how you keep saying "no more rebates" like it can actually happen with a law being passed or something. Well I understand the dream of turning back the clock to 1997, but it can't be done. Organizations other than racetracks are giving the best rebates! How do you legally ban independent bet takers from offering rebates?

I can tell you first hand that a state law just like that works really well to kill rebates in Nevada.

Look at what the laws in TX and AZ have done to racing in those states.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I just don't understand how you keep saying "no more rebates" like it can actually happen with a law being passed or something. Well I understand the dream of turning back the clock to 1997, but it can't be done. Organizations other than racetracks are giving the best rebates! How do you legally ban independent bet takers from offering rebates?

There is one way it might work. Every single racing organization would have to cut takeout to your fantasy low levels, all at once, with no exceptions.

I'll wait for the laughter to subside.

Okay, so in fantasyland, if that happened, then the ADWs couldn't afford to give 10% rebates and survive. But if it didn't happen in some mass action by 30 independent states and organizations ALL DOING IT AT ONCE, then all the business from the "whales" would just go to the places they can still get rebates. Do you think everyone in racing would unify in this way? It's just fantasyland. Your IDEA is right but we're way past the point it can happen.

Laugh away, it is not my problem. I am stating what needs to be done for this game to succeed. If all the "smart" execs and lawyers working for this industry cannot find a way to make it happen then so be it. The sport will eventually die and every year or two until it does we will have another discussion about another big track closing. Why exactly anyone needs horse racing to have a casino or sports betting is beyond me. What does horse racing bring to the table. Even if it brings something to the table today, it surely will not in ten years. Thanks to this idiotic policy of rebates, rebates and more rebates, horse racing went from the Sport of Kings to a relic.

Honestly if the people in charge cannot figure out how to correct it and the people in the industry stand behind the "leaders" in charge and continue to push for every welfare dollar going into purses instead of into fixing the game, I cannot bring it upon myself to give a rat's ass if this track goes out of business or that track goes out of business. The solution is simple, nobody wants to make it happen, the industry hemorrhages customers. Shocking. If anyone disagrees, they will disagree. Opinions are like ********, except mine happens to be right. The status quo certainly is failing. So at this point behind curtain #1) is stay with a failed plan and watch the game deteriorate into nothing or 2) Try to take advantage of a society that has largely transformed from gambling being "taboo" to gambling being very accepted and very popular, not to mention a huge market of advantage gamblers who would dive into this game if it was priced properly.

But then again there is always slot welfare.

You can go back to spitting up your coffee from laughing so hard.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Laugh away, it is not my problem. I am stating what needs to be done for this game to succeed. If all the "smart" execs and lawyers working for this industry cannot find a way to make it happen then so be it. The sport will eventually die and every year or two until it does we will have another discussion about another big track closing. Why exactly anyone needs horse racing to have a casino or sports betting is beyond me. What does horse racing bring to the table. Even if it brings something to the table today, it surely will not in ten years. Thanks to this idiotic policy of rebates, rebates and more rebates, horse racing went from the Sport of Kings to a relic.

Honestly if the people in charge cannot figure out how to correct it and the people in the industry stand behind the "leaders" in charge and continue to push for every welfare dollar going into purses instead of into fixing the game, I cannot bring it upon myself to give a rat's ass if this track goes out of business or that track goes out of business. The solution is simple, nobody wants to make it happen, the industry hemorrhages customers. Shocking. If anyone disagrees, they will disagree. Opinions are like ********, except mine happens to be right. The status quo certainly is failing. So at this point behind curtain #1) is stay with a failed plan and watch the game deteriorate into nothing or 2) Try to take advantage of a society that has largely transformed from gambling being "taboo" to gambling being very accepted and very popular, not to mention a huge market of advantage gamblers who would dive into this game if it was priced properly.

But then again there is always slot welfare.

You can go back to spitting up your coffee from laughing so hard.

Horse racing without rebates will not bring the patient back to good health. There is minimal draw to horse racing as the gambling game of choice. I doubt that there is a large pool of advantage gamblers waiting to dive into the game. They are in already getting rebates!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Horse racing without rebates will not bring the patient back to good health. There is minimal draw to horse racing as the gambling game of choice. I doubt that there is a large pool of advantage gamblers waiting to dive into the game. They are in already getting rebates!

Could not agree more!

[Parkview_Pirate]

Rebates are just one aspect of the economic problem in racing. The recreational player is mostly gone now - to online contests, other gambling activities, or the markets.

Discretionary spending from those of us who bet the races is dwindling fast. Want to fix racing? Come to grip with the fact that as the economic and demographic trends continue, race tracks will need to adapt or die. Big changes are necessary, and the biggest of all is contraction.

CAW groups and the whales were temporary arrangements to extend the patient's life - that is, racing's model from the 1950s. Anyone with a few extra brain cells could see the game was making a deal with the Devil, and a death spiral in handle and interest was not just a possibility - it's become a certainty.

I've thought for a long time American racing was heading down the path to what goes on in South America, as described by Beyer 20 years ago. High, high takeout, no winning players, $2000 claimers making 100 starts, and....just bad racing. I've seen no reason to adjust that outlook - if anything we're accelerating to that endpoint.