2015 Superbowl XLIX February 1, 2015

[lamboguy]

i know the odds maker's and the public have this as a close game. i don't because i see no way that the Seahawks front 4 can deal the Patriots offensive line. that tends to lead to blowout's.

my Pats in a blowout victory

[Marshall Bennett]

Close on paper, but heavily favors Pats with emotion. They have a point to prove and some critics to silence.

[badcompany]

You won't go broke betting the better D every year in the Super Bowl.

Seattle covers with Kam Chancellor as the MVP.

[thaskalos]

Wilson saves his best game for last, and punishes the NE secondary mercilessly...while Seattle's D covers NE's receivers like a blanket. Seattle...28-17.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Wilson saves his best game for last, and punishes the NE secondary mercilessly...while Seattle's D covers NE's receivers like a blanket. Seattle...28-17.

no doubt about it the Seahawk secondary is dynamite, the only problem is i don't think the Patriot's will be passing to much in this game. the offensive line of the Patriots push the defensive tackles backwards and they knockdown the linebackers. if i am right, the Patriots should be able to run all day on the Hawks and Wilson we be chasing from behind all game and might be forced into making many mistakes. i really wish i was wrong, but i highly doubt it.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

no doubt about it the Seahawk secondary is dynamite, the only problem is i don't think the Patriot's will be passing to much in this game. the offensive line of the Patriots push the defensive tackles backwards and they knockdown the linebackers. if i am right, the Patriots should be able to run all day on the Hawks and Wilson we be chasing from behind all game and might be forced into making many mistakes. i really wish i was wrong, but i highly doubt it.

Brady is the key...IMO. Seattle has the better ground game, AND the better defense against the run. If Brady airs it out in the early stages of the game against the typically slow-starting Hawks, and builds up a sizable lead at the half...then Seattle's Marshawn Lynch gets limited snaps in the second half, and NE probably wins. But if Belichick decides to play it close to the vest early by mainly relying on his ground game, and the score is close at halftime...then Seattle wins in a walk. No way can NE stay with Seattle in the second half...IMO.

[thaskalos]

In my opinion...Marshawn Lynch will have a big game against NE...and this will give Wilson the help that he needs to unleash the Seattle passing attack. A balanced offense and a lock-down defense are tough to beat.

[lamboguy]

when you have an opinion, you can test it out in Nevada on this game for basically whatever your heart desires.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

when you have an opinion, you can test it out in Nevada on this game for basically whatever your heart desires.

My money is already in. A highly reputable outfit here had NE -1, -120...so I took Seattle +1, and no juice. How can you go wrong?

[pandy]

I lost the last two Super Bowls, which put my record in Super Bowls to 9 and 4 over the past 13 since I started handicapping it on my website. The last three times New England was in the SB I bet against them and won, but this time I'm going with Patriots.

It's hard see either one of these teams scoring a lot of points, two good defensive secondaries, and neither team has outstanding wide receivers, so they're both going to try to run the ball. Belichick always targets the opposition's main weapon, so he'll keep his linebackers in close to the line of scrimmage to stop Lynch, while trying to keep Wilson in the pocket. My complete analysis is below.



http://www.handicappingwinners.com/nfl_bets.htm

[_______]

Took alt line at Bovada. SEA -6.5 +195

[Stillriledup]

How about this as a "Tell".

Belichick running those plays with the eligible/ineligible confusion vs the Ravens...my question is this....if you have the better players, why get cute? Why not just line up and smash the other guys, if you're the best and have the better players, why resort to chicanery?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

How about this as a "Tell".

Belichick running those plays with the eligible/ineligible confusion vs the Ravens...my question is this....if you have the better players, why get cute? Why not just line up and smash the other guys, if you're the best and have the better players, why resort to chicanery?

The thing is, the Patriots haven't had the best players in many years, but that hasn't stopped them from having the highest win percentage in the NFL. They have better game plans and better execution of the game plan than the other teams.

[cj's dad]

Originally Posted by pandy

The thing is, the Patriots haven't had the best players in many years, but that hasn't stopped them from having the highest win percentage in the NFL. They have better game plans and better execution of the game plan than the other teams.

They are in the worst division in the AFC - Guaranteed 5 wins in that division every year.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Like Seattle. Pats can't contain the beast and spy on Wilson at same time. Watched New England struggle with some bad teams this season, still view them as a bit suspect. Brady awesome, but eligible to get frustrated given hawk's great secondary, and if pats can't bully with offense, team tends to unravel.

Also, P C can coach on par with B B, which not many peers can manage.

I think you nailed it, on all points.

This game reminds me a lot of the Ohio State vs. Oregon college championship game.

Seattle's offense is in some ways similar to OSU.
Establishing and using Wilson's threat as a runner looks to be a key.
(Maybe I'd say Gronkowski as an established threat could be the Pats' offensive key?).

I still can't confidently pick this game. 2 well coached teams that are both pretty good. Anyone can win 1 game.