Handicapping RETOOLED. My New Approach on Beating This Game

[bisket]

playing larger pools is the name of the game.

[Space Monkey]

saver bets are losers
don't see where I advocated all eggs.
if you are smashing chairs and afraid to miss "something" , then reduce your eggs to just the ones you can afford to lose.

Ddog, 50-50 here. I shouldn't have characterized my exotics within my pik 4 as saver bets. If you reread the original post you'll see that the #1 reason is to offer me the opportunity for a tremendous profit if I'm right on this small 4 race menu. Like the load up on a key horse example that was mentioned earlier, I'm loading up on VALUE, wherever I see it.Their second purpose is as a saver. I can still make a very good amount of cash while missing my primary bet with some smart plays.

You told me to skip other bets and just play my pik 4. Thats all the eggs to me.

I realize its hard sometimes to get a correct read on the tenor of a post. Sometimes sarcasm, humor, sarcastic humor and other emotions just don't translate well with the printed word. When somebody puts a after a line it means to me that it was said as a joke, or at least something that should be taken lightly. That statement wasn't meant to be taken literally.

I learned about,,,ummm,,,30 years ago, that its no fun gambling with money you can't afford to lose. Nowadays, If I do get pissed, its because I approach this game as a sport. No different than when I play one myself. I am a competitor, I want to win. I'm glad that at my age I still got the fire in my belly

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Steve,

Whales are rarely winning without rebates. If they are, then they should spread more so that they lose and increase volume.

I haven't really worked out the math, but I assumed that breakeven pre-rebate was their optimum performance level. If they're already at breakeven, and they make additional bets that bring their overall ROI to say -5%, the incremental performance of those additional bets is way worse than just -5%, and wouldn't cover the rebate.

[Space Monkey]

I was all set to dive into today with enthusiasm after last weeks success with my new strategy. I looked at MTH first and saw 2 maiden races with 5 FTS that killed both Pik 4's. Turfway's open and I can live with their 22% PIk 4 takeout. Unfortunately they just opened and horses are shipping in from all over the midwest, most with no poly form. Thats another one of my criteria for playable races. Current surface form for a large majority of the field. Turfways cards for the next few weeks will be a crapshoot until everybody gets in and has a race over the track.

I realized that I didn't have a Plan B. I decided to develop one. A pick 3. Monmouth's late one. I tune in for the scratches and track condition only to find to my dismay, MUDDY, OFF THE TURF. Now, the discipline part of the equation comes into play. The old me would abandon my plans and just wing it going back to my ex/dbl ways. The new me is going to pass, sit on my $511 profit from last week and watch the NFL

[CBedo]

for the discipline. Finding playable races is tough enough. Sometimes finding playable race SEQUENCES can drive you crazy, which is why I love tracks that offer rolling double and pick 3s as well as the pick 4s. If you find a race you love, you can build around it if you like the races on either side.

[badcompany]

Are these rebate shops really so sound that you trust them with large amounts of money?

What if one goes belly-up? I'm guessing there isn't a rebate shop equivalent of an FDIC or SIPC.

[Space Monkey]

Good question BC. Since I'm not a heavy hitter, the rebate debate is not applicable to me. I do have an opinion though. It seems like a lot of rebaters are basically just trying to break even with their bets and profit on the rebates. I understand that you can negotiate and that very little of the true rebate info is available online, so I'm really just guessing. Now if you bet 10,000 a month and get back 3%, thats only $300. Even 5% is only $500. My question is, how much are the pro rebate handicappers betting?? $300-500 a month is beer money, not an income.

[Dave Schwartz]

I haven't really worked out the math, but I assumed that breakeven pre-rebate was their optimum performance level. If they're already at breakeven, and they make additional bets that bring their overall ROI to say -5%, the incremental performance of those additional bets is way worse than just -5%, and wouldn't cover the rebate.

You assumed incorrectly.

The "sweet spot" is -3% to -5%.


Dave

[bisket]

space i was tossing around playing belmonmt today, but decided against it because i thought the track would be sloppy. next week?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I am just curious here as I have proposed doing similar here on this site, playing exotic's and I get slammed as an idioit,

No, you were given HELPFUL ADVICE tailor MADE for your particular situation. You were not slammed as an idiot, however, it has become clear that you will never follow the advice you constantly seek (and only because you don't LIKE the advice you are getting, despite how appropriate it may be).

Then you turn around and complain you are getting slammed...wow....

[Space Monkey]

Finding playable races is tough enough. Sometimes finding playable race SEQUENCES can drive you crazy, which is why I love tracks that offer rolling double and pick 3s as well as the pick 4s. If you find a race you love, you can build around it if you like the races on either side.
Yesterday 01:06 PM

I couldn't agree with you more. Now throw in a low takeout and you got it all.

[Space Monkey]

space i was tossing around playing belmonmt today, but decided against it because i thought the track would be sloppy. next week?

My first choice will be Monmouth. 15% takeout on my prime bet. Only 2 weeks left in the meet. I love Belmont, but 26% on the pik 4 is tough to swallow.

[Space Monkey]

I was really looking forward to playing Monmouth tomorrow, but with the 100% heavy rain probability, it looks like the whole northeast is a washout. So i took the time to figure some stats on my pik 4 plays. Small sample, but its all I got:

4 played, 2 hit, +$304.45
16 races, 13 winners on tickets punched
A horses, 7, at an average mutual of $6.40
B horses, 4, at an average mutual of $7.60
C horses, 2, at an average mutual of $23.00

My Pik 4 primary bet decision is on trial. I will evaluate it at the proper time. My early results have raised an interesting question. I rarely bet multiple horses to win in 1 race. There are some here who are a proponent of that strategy. I realize that decisions have to be made on how much to bet on each horse and the fluctuating late odds can throw a monkey wrench into your play. I'm wondering, with my current hit rate, how well I would have done with a multiple win bet strategy. Just something to think about as the clouds move in.