Handicapping RETOOLED. My New Approach on Beating This Game

[ddog]

Originally Posted by Space Monkey

I'm 59, always been a multicolor pen/form guy. I've been using BRIS's Ultimates since 1997. About a year and a half ago I decided to explore other handicapping methods. I realized I had deficiencies. One of which was not being able to identify when the "cheap speed" or just speed in general, would win. I got into a trap where I was betting the strongest finisher most of the time. A lot of seconds and thirds .

I had the attitude that software programs just led you to the fave. But I opened my mind and started experimenting. I tried AllWays, Nuerax, MultiCaps, Trackmaster and even went back to DRF. Formulator was interesting, but I just can't live with the Beyers. MultiCaps opened my eyes to pace handicapping. I started seeing the E types that would be there at the wire. Then I joined HANA and they offered free PP's for their member race of the week. In those PP's was CJ's Pace Figures. Long story short, I signed up after a few more trials. I now use them in conjunction with the BRIS Ultimates. BRIS's 8 trainer/jock stats and the overall figs in the upper right are key elements for me.

I then decided I had to pick on a key bet. Another one of my faults was over extending on multi exotic wagers. I'm not a grinder. I only get to play 1-3 days a week and 1 is most often. The work thing. A few people here like to promote win and place betting on mostly faves. Not my style. I've also found that the pik 3 very often gives poor value when considering the hit rate probability. So I decided on the Pik 4. I could elaborate more on this but I don't want to write a book here.

I've learned a lot from the HANA website. I'm not ruling out playing 25% takeout exotics entirely, but I'm steering clear as much as I can. Monmouth's 15% takeout on the pik 4 is what I'm concentrating on now, but unfortunately their meet is about to end. I'm looking at SA, the Kentucky tracks and the winter meets at Gulfstream and Tampa as prime pik 4 tracks. They are all roughly 20%. I love NY racing, especially Belmont, but 26% on their Pik 4 is too much to accept. Win, Doubles and Exactas are the smartest way to bet there.

Ive also noticed that when I concentrate on a "key bet", I do a lot better with that group of races than the ones that follow. So here's my gameplan:

I'm going to pick a playable PIk 4. By playable, I mean no baby races, no maiden turf races with multiple starters with no turf form. Another one of my weaknesses. Some of my biggest hits have been maiden races, but 3,4,5 yr old on the dirt is the type I'm looking for. One thing thats not going to change is the amount of $ I allot to a day. Except for special occasions, like a road trip or BC day, $200 is what it is. I plan on covering the pik 4 with about half of my stake and using the other $100+ or so on value plays within the pik 4. Value could be a win bet, or keying a 20-1 shot over 4 in the tri. Whatever, if I pik this thing stone cold, the payoffs could be huge. I think its a good risk/reward strategy without committing any more $ than I normally would in a racing day.

Opinions??

IMHO-commit your whole BR for the day to the PK4. Forget the other stuff.
If you can't find a reason to spend the whole BR that day , then carry it over.
You want to be deep on the day the month-changer Pk4 comes in. Hit that one!

[formula_2002]

I LOOKED AT 68 “MODEL” EXACTA RACE PLAYS IN 8 HORSE FIELDS WHERE THE PICK WAS THE FAVORITE.
THE FLAT BET WIN POOL ROI WAS 1.10.

THE PICK OVER THE 2 BETTING CHOICE RETURNED 1.18 ROI
OVER THE 3RD CHOICE , 1.04
4TH CHOICE, .91
5TH CHOICE, .86
6TH CHOICE, 1.57
7TH CHOICE, .47
8TH CHOICE, .96
WITH THE PICK OVER ALL, THE ROI WAS 1.00
(COULD THAT BE RIGHT?)

IN MY EXPERIENCE, FUTURE SAMPLING COULD EASILY INTERCHANGE THOSE ROIS SUCH THAT THE 2ND CHOICE COULD RETURN A .86 ROI AND THE 5TH CHOICE A 1.18 ROI.

WHAT I HAVE FOUND, MANY TIMES OVER IS I CAN NOT IMPROVE THE WIN POOL ROI BY BETTING EXACTAS, UNLESS OFCOURSE, I CAN HANDICAP THE PLACE HORSE..
I'M STILL WORKING ON THE WIN HORSE

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Not a wash... The rebates are huge.

And so is the takeout. Maybe my question wasn't clear. Why is a 15% rebate on a 25% takeout bet better than a 7% rebate on a 17% bet? It seems that either way, you're more or less betting into an effective take of 10%.

[ddog]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I LOOKED AT 68 “MODEL” EXACTA RACE PLAYS IN 8 HORSE FIELDS WHERE THE PICK WAS THE FAVORITE.
THE FLAT BET WIN POOL ROI WAS 1.10.

THE PICK OVER THE 2 BETTING CHOICE RETURNED 1.18 ROI
OVER THE 3RD CHOICE , 1.04
4TH CHOICE, .91
5TH CHOICE, .86
6TH CHOICE, 1.57
7TH CHOICE, .47
8TH CHOICE, .96
WITH THE PICK OVER ALL, THE ROI WAS 1.00
(COULD THAT BE RIGHT?)

IN MY EXPERIENCE, FUTURE SAMPLING COULD EASILY INTERCHANGE THOSE ROIS SUCH THAT THE 2ND CHOICE COULD RETURN A .86 ROI AND THE 5TH CHOICE A 1.18 ROI.

WHAT I HAVE FOUND, MANY TIMES OVER IS I CAN NOT IMPROVE THE WIN POOL ROI BY BETTING EXACTAS, UNLESS OFCOURSE, I CAN HANDICAP THE PLACE HORSE..
I'M STILL WORKING ON THE WIN HORSE

if you "handicap" TOO MUCH you will lose.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by ryesteve

And so is the takeout. Maybe my question wasn't clear. Why is a 15% rebate on a 25% takeout bet better than a 7% rebate on a 17% bet? It seems that either way, you're more or less betting into an effective take of 10%.

Exactly the question I posed that I don't yet have (or understand) the answer.

[Rutgers]

"And so is the takeout. Maybe my question wasn't clear. Why is a 15% rebate on a 25% takeout bet better than a 7% rebate on a 17% bet? It seems that either way, you're more or less betting into an effective take of 10%"



Short term, if you win, it is actually much better to get a 7% rebate on a 17% bet. Long term, with wins and losses, it does not make a difference.

Assume at Utopia Downs, with have a 10 horse field with $10,000 bet on each horse. Total pool amount is $100,000. Also assume a bettor made a $100 win on the horse that won.

With a 25% takeout $75,000 goes back to the winning ticket holders. At $10,000 bet on each that means there were 5,000 winning $2 tickets. So, $75,000/5,000 = $15.00 Mutual payout for each $2.00 wager. So our bettor collects 50 * $15.00 = $750. Plus, he gets 15% of his wager or $15. So he ends up, with $765.

With a 17% takeout, $83,000 goes back to the winners. The winning mutual is now $16.60. So the bettor is now getting back $16.60 * 50 = $830.00 plus $7 rebate for a total of $837.00

But has we all know, we don't win them all. After losing the next 9 races while betting $100 a race with a 15% rebate(on a 25% takeout) the bettor would get back $135. Adding that to the $765 you end up with $900 (after wagering $1,000). With a 7% rebate(on a 17% takeout) the bettor would get back $63. Adding, that to the $837 you end up with the same $900.

I know this is a rather simple made up example, but the math is the same in the real world.

[Space Monkey]

you have just retooled yourself into making sure that you don't win at this game. you have just eliminated the only type's of races where you might find a possibility of an edge. most people are like yourself not having any idea on what is going on with a baby race.

Lambo, I do have a clue about what goes into the baby races. I'll agree that baby races offer great opportunities. I've stayed away from them for about the last decade after seeing so many improbable results for over 30 years. You can spot the best bred, the best connections, the multiple dot workouts, the smart money, and still when that gate opens and the bell rings for the first time, you just don't know. A key element for me in making a profit on the pik 4 is narrowing the contenders down as much as I can which will enable me to bet more on my tickets. Every time I see a handicapper, from Crist, Beyer to Mr.B they always spread out on the baby races. Since I'm picking only 1 Pick 4 for the day, I see no need to play one with this type of race. To say that you can't beat this game by not playing the 2 yr olds is just something I can't accept.

[Space Monkey]

The one thing you might want to remember is that the sharks and/or whales zero in on the low-takeout bets. Sometimes, the bets with the 25% takeout are easier to beat.

In other words, if you're fading 15%, and there is 5% more smart money than stupid, then you have to be 20% better than the public. If the takeout is 25%, and there is 15% more stupid money than smart money, then you only have to be 10% better than the public.

Very interesting Tom. I hadn't ever thought of that angle. I wasn't prepared for the debate that followed

[cj]

Originally Posted by CBedo

Exactly the question I posed that I don't yet have (or understand) the answer.

This was also the point of my first post in the thread.

[Space Monkey]

I think that the bettor with a poor win pctg. would prefer the higher rebate, while a better capper would prefer a lower takeout

.

Pineda, I'd change that to say that the "Professional gambler" would prefer the higher rebate, while the "Average handicapper" would prefer the lower takeout.

I've stated that I only get to play 1-3 times a week. Rarely 3. If I invest $200 a day, over a month, thats $1,600 thru the window. From what I've learned, that doesn't qualify me for anything. or if it does, just pocket change. I've enjoyed reading the debate on rebates that started after I requested a critique of my strategy and its plain to see that I don't fit the profile for the rebate player.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Space Monkey]

IMHO-commit your whole BR for the day to the PK4. Forget the other stuff.
If you can't find a reason to spend the whole BR that day , then carry it over.
You want to be deep on the day the month-changer Pk4 comes in. Hit that one!

Ddog, thanks for the advice. Betting value picks within my 4 race play for the day is my "saver" bet. I've reached a point in my wagering career, that I can't accept picking that killer 15-1 shot and not getting anything for it when my 3 or 4 horses in the last leg don't come in. I've smashed too many clipboards over the rail, chair backs, walls in my day. Its not good for my BP I'm also not an "all my eggs in one basket" type of player.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Space Monkey

Ddog, thanks for the advice. Betting value picks within my 4 race play for the day is my "saver" bet. I've reached a point in my wagering career, that I can't accept picking that killer 15-1 shot and not getting anything for it when my 3 or 4 horses in the last leg don't come in. I've smashed too many clipboards over the rail, chair backs, walls in my day. Its not good for my BP I'm also not an "all my eggs in one basket" type of player.

i've found my percentages are much better trying to get a good read on one race than trying to string a good read together with four in a row. eventhough the takeout may be larger. which is why you see that i play tri's and exacta's.

[pktruckdriver]

I am just curious here as I have proposed doing similar here on this site, playing exotic's and I get slammed as an idioit, not that I have a daily 200 BR to play each day, or when plays come around .


Space Monkey , I wish you the best, and believe that with proper handicapping in choosing your 1 -2 Key Selections, and trusting them enough to even play in Vertical Exotics , then I say go for it, as this give the chance to still profit if only your key selections come in and you miss the pick 4 .


Someone recently suggested to me that when you find a key horse you feel real good about , you should hammer that race in all the exotics, otherwise go for the jugular and take all the race has to offer, as He stated Crush the race, and depepnding on your Handicapping ability, it would seem being right on 25% of the time would still be profitable, since you are not playing chalk.


One major suggestion thou is this ... You stated you tried Formulator and alsothat you use 200 BR and about 100 on your pick 4 ticket, I would suggest using the Ticketmaker within the Formulator to help you structure your tickets, as it works with what ever budget you give it as spits out various tickets and may give a chance to hit the pick 4 more than once if your picks are good enough . After awhile you will see how it does your tickets and you will be able to do them on your own.


Hey Man I wish lots of luck


Patrick

[bisket]

finding a key horse and hitting the race hard has worked for me. this situation doesn't come along often, but when it does its really fun.

[Space Monkey]

Exactas are fine biskit, as are doubles. But if you look it up most tracks ream the player on the tri with 25% takeout. they know its the most popular bet. KY, Cal are exceptions. There are a few more.

PK, thanks for the encouragement. Slamming you for playing exotics is just plain wrong. Sure, the takeout on w/p/s betting is the lowest, but its also the most unexciting way to play the game and requires the player to "grind it out" to achieve a decent profit. It seems like the proponents of that type of playing are people who have the time to do it. Pro's. Good luck to them. I wish I ahd the time to experiment with that system. Doubles and Exactas at almost any track are under 20%. Nothing wrong with playing them.

I do try to crush a race when I like a bomb. A few months ago I liked a 30-1 shot. Wasn't playing pik 3's or 4's at the time but bet it every other way. Hit the double and a win bet. Lost the tri and exactra . Still made a nice profit though. Made around $700 I think, but it could have been 5 figures.My last throwout got in the middle.

I haven't looked at formulator's new ticket program. I've adopted Steve Crist's multi ticket strategy with the A,B,C,X classification of the field. I'm confident that I've got a good handle on it. I've got a feeling that Formulator's system is very similar to Crist's, if not the same.

Thanks again for the post and the good wishes.