TLG's Saratoga ROI

[the little guy]

What the sad cyber-bashers don't understand, or refuse to understand, is that what we are doing at NYRA is discussing races in a manner which hopefully stimulates interest in these races. Because the cyber-bashers refuse to listen to our show, and are fixated on the 1-2-3 picks, they miss this, and sadly miss out on what we are actually offering. But, if it makes them feel better about their own lives, then we are also performing a positive function as well.

Of course the top picks lean towards the favorites....they are usually a reflection of " most likely winner " types and frequently not the horse a bettor focuses on in single race play to make money. Anyone that listens to the shows realizes this and perhaps that is why we have such a positive following. But, once again, if it makes a few here happier to miss the point ( and opportunity ) then once again we are succeeding in our hopes of making everyone's racing experience a positive one.

It's all good. The second best thing to being loved, at least in this situation, is being hated.

[Light]

JT

I've already mentioned twice that I have proved myself on this board more than anyone else on this board.The proof is all here. Go to the PA downs contest link and you'll see I made something around 100% ROI. Go to the Riders up threads and you can see what I did. I will be playing the next Aqu Pk4 contest when the Aqu inner meet starts in December for 4 months as I have done in the past. I have proved myself over and over. I mainly do it for myself,not for anyone else.But this is irrelevant. I am not a public handicapper nor do I get paid for my picks. Its just that I have higher standards for myself and anyone purported to be an "expert".

So I watched the show this morning just to see again what is so great from TLG's analysis and got absolutely nothing. They had all the scratches. This is what I got from him watching the show. I took notes.

1) "I dont have a great opinion"
2) There are too many scratches
3) "Its a guessing game"
4) Likes #4,Embrace. Not sure why he likes him,didn't say.
5) I couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here.
6) Thinks its a 2 horse race #4 or #6. Why? I have no idea.
7) Sort of likes the 3. Why I didn't get
8) Really likes the 1A. 6/5 favorite. WOW. Finally an opinion,but come on,Chalklate man. Tell me something the ML guy doesnt know.
9) Says "you could use a bunch of horses". Thanks Andy. That really clears it up.
10) No opinion given for his pick nor did he even mention the horse's name. Just knocked Donovan's longshot pick.

How in the world this lame analysis benefits anyone is beyond me.

[Space Monkey]

1) "I dont have a great opinion"
2) There are too many scratches
3) "Its a guessing game"
4) Likes #4,Embrace. Not sure why he likes him,didn't say.
5) I couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here.
6) Thinks its a 2 horse race #4 or #6. Why? I have no idea.
7) Sort of likes the 3. Why I didn't get
8) Really likes the 1A. 6/5 favorite. WOW. Finally an opinion,but come on,Chalklate man. Tell me something the ML guy doesnt know.
9) Says "you could use a bunch of horses". Thanks Andy. That really clears it up.
10) No opinion given for his pick nor did he even mention the horse's name. Just knocked Donovan's longshot pick.

Sounds a lot like my critique of the races I was looking to play today.
I don't tune into the prerace shows to get winners. I do it just to hear maybe that 1 opinion on 1 horse that might make my day. It might not even be ahorse they pick. Andy is a lot like I used to be, a trip handicapper, but back when it was more profitable, less obvious. Back then you used to have to fire up the VCR, tape the NYRA show and replay every race back to spot the trips. Now its all done for you. Andy will give me that 1 horse from time to time. I could care less about his ROI. Hes got an impossible job trying to appease people who are just looking for easy winners to be given to them.

If anybody here hasn't tuned into Arlington's show with Jim Dooley and Jessica Pacheco, do yourself a favor and watch it. Jessica is sometimes hilarious without tyring to be. She'll hold up her paper and twitch her lip, tilt her head as shes trying to figure out who to pick. It seems like shes winging it most of the time. I get a kick out of her, and it has nothing to do with the fact that shes hot, so don't go there

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Light

So I watched the show this morning just to see again what is so great from TLG's analysis and got absolutely nothing. They had all the scratches. This is what I got from him watching the show. I took notes.

1) "I dont have a great opinion"
2) There are too many scratches
3) "Its a guessing game"
4) Likes #4,Embrace. Not sure why he likes him,didn't say.
5) I couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here.
6) Thinks its a 2 horse race #4 or #6. Why? I have no idea.
7) Sort of likes the 3. Why I didn't get
8) Really likes the 1A. 6/5 favorite. WOW. Finally an opinion,but come on,Chalklate man. Tell me something the ML guy doesnt know.
9) Says "you could use a bunch of horses". Thanks Andy. That really clears it up.
10) No opinion given for his pick nor did he even mention the horse's name. Just knocked Donovan's longshot pick.

How in the world this lame analysis benefits anyone is beyond me.

I realize you have an incessant need to point out how miserable you are in life, but I will offer some truth to your lies....

1 ) We both picked the same horse, who was a short price when we did the show, thus I'm not sure how much should be said but it was made clear that he was dropping into an appropriate spot after being in one wrong one after another since his prior win. I said on the pre-race prattle ( when his odds had drifted to 9:2 ) that I was betting him and I also " tweeted " that he was the right horse. he paid $13.

2 ) Obviously it was a race destroyed by scratches and not particularly interesting from a betting standpoint. During the pre-race prattle, when we could see the odds, I stressed that the 2 entry was wildly overbet, and while the 1 was the likeliest winner ( he won ) the 7 ( who finished a close second ) was the value play.

3 ) It's a field of five firsters. I'm glad I was able to further your handicapping knowledge by explaining that two hours before post time it was a " guessing game. "

4 ) As opposed to your flat out lie, I made it clear why I liked my selection and showed the replay of her debut to further my point. I also explained specifically why I was against the Dutrow first time starter ( it was a subtle breeding concept that apparently flew over your head ).

5 ) I made it clear who I liked and showed a replay to bolster my opinion. That fact that you " couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here " speaks volumes about you and not me.

6 ) It's fairly obvious on paper why it's a two horse race on paper. We try not to belabor the obvious when one of us likes the two favorites out of respect to our audience. There is a limited amount of time for the show and we try hard to apportion our time as best as possible. We showed two replays to discuss other horses in the race to broaden the discussion. If anything, we spent too much time on this race.

7 ) I didn't do a great job of discussing my selection, I agree, but the conversation took a different direction. We pointed out, with replays, two horses that we ( one each ) thought had less than good trips in their prior starts. Maybe not a perfect job but once again we tried to fit in as much information as the limited time allowed. How much should I have used to expound on why I like the second choice?

8 ) Now you criticize me for doing what you previously criticized me for not doing. I get it.....and so does everyone else.

9 ) You used my short final comment to summarize a discussion which included detailed replay work from the Sword Dancer. Once again.....I get it. The plusses and minuses of the logical horses were discussed as best as possible in the time allowed.

10 ) I did no such thing as criticizing Eric's pick. What I did was make fun of myself for picking the obvious favorites, and made it clear that the few seconds we had left were much better spent letting Eric discuss his longshot idea.

But, this has nothing to do with you.

[rjorio]

IT WOULD SEEM THE LIGHT IS QUITE DIM.

[Light]

TLG

Part of my attitude while watching your show was to try to put myself in the shoes of those here who claim to have the skill of filtering out who you really like and who you are chilly on. Alot in your defense says, you wouldn't bet every race and only if I watched the show would I be able to figure out who you really liked. The only race it looked like to me that you really liked something was the 6th where you say its a 2 horse race and the 8th,the big chalk. Otherwise I didn't get the feeling you liked much. Plus if I was going to selectively bet horses based on your opinion,I certainly would not bet them if you make disparaging comments about the race even if you covered some info on your pick(s) such as in the 9th where you said "you could use a bunch of horses". That implies you think the race is wide open.Why should I care about what you just said about your picks. You just nailed your opinion about the race. Certainly I couldn't take your top recommendations when you dont even mention their names like in the 7th and 10th. I realize time is a big factor in your presentation,but thats all the more reason to be consise and to the point rather than wishy washy or not commenting on your own pick.When you ignore your top pick it sends the message to me that you don't really care about him that much. If someone really likes a horse,they are usually enthused and expressive about it and I didn't get that in most of your picks so these people who seem to know which of your picks to bet are obviously deluded because I didnt get the impression you even knew who you really liked.

[toetoe]

Andy,

You don't need blind adulation. You want tough love, right ? Otherwise, you're just President Obama.

If you really insist on fawning praise, I will arrange for Stevie Wonder to adapt his brilliant number, based on "Do re mi ...," using the following lyrics:

A-a-a-andy SERLING. A-A-A-andy Serling..

And don't worry --- we'll tell Stevie you're black ... er, of color ... well, whatever.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by toetoe

Andy,

You don't need blind adulation. You want tough love, right ? Otherwise, you're just President Obama.

If you really insist on fawning praise, I will arrange for Stevie Wonder to adapt his brilliant number, based on "Do re mi ...," using the following lyrics:

A-a-a-andy SERLING. A-A-A-andy Serling..

And don't worry --- we'll tell Stevie you're black ... er, of color ... well, whatever.

You're better than this. As you well know I am more than happy to listen to constructive criticism ( as I have proven on this site in the past ). That, however, is not even close to what is going on here. Believe me, I take it for what it's worth. When you are lumped in with people like Steve Crist and Andy Beyer it is impossible not to be extraordinarily complimented. It's kind of like saying someone is as ugly as Gisele Bundchen.

You can't please all of the people all of the time. I will continue to work hard to do the best job I can.

[Space Monkey]

TLG, I tried to change the tone of this thread, but to no avail. I mean nobody would even bite on my Hot Jessica Pacheco reference To judge a public handicapper on his ROI for the whole meet, when hes picking every race, is just nonsense. Keep doing what you're doing. I enjoy watching you. One bit of unsolicited advice. Don't waste your time on threads like this. I'm sure you've got better things to do.

[illinoisbred]

Originally Posted by Space Monkey

TLG, I tried to change the tone of this thread, but to no avail. I mean nobody would even bite on my Hot Jessica Pacheco reference To judge a public handicapper on his ROI for the whole meet, when hes picking every race, is just nonsense. Keep doing what you're doing. I enjoy watching you. One bit of unsolicited advice. Don't waste your time on threads like this. I'm sure you've got better things to do.

J.P. is easy on the eyes.I see her throughout the day as I go back and forth between here and Twinspires.Soon it's sayanora for her until Fair Grounds opens.As far as TLGis concerned;whenever I view NY racing Ifind his remarks pretty much on the mark.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by Space Monkey

TLG, I tried to change the tone of this thread, but to no avail. I mean nobody would even bite on my Hot Jessica Pacheco reference To judge a public handicapper on his ROI for the whole meet, when hes picking every race, is just nonsense. Keep doing what you're doing. I enjoy watching you. One bit of unsolicited advice. Don't waste your time on threads like this. I'm sure you've got better things to do.

But many here seem to be able to pick out want picks mean more then others. It's ridiculous for one to make such claims when 63 of his 82 winners paid 10 bucks or less..As Light posted earlier about todays show..Not much commitment or reasons why he liked a particular horse.. This game is about finding value..One who makes picks everyday for a particlualr track should have a better idea on who is going to be bet down and who isn't.

One more thing..Jessica Pacheco does commit to more longshots then TLG from what I've seen. I give her credit for this. That's the only way this game can be beaten in the long run.

[toetoe]

Andy,

Sorry if it sounded callous, but I was just hammering away at the futility of the direction of this thread and others like it.

I admire you, and I defend your right to be snippy ... sometimes .

The funny thing is that Light is a very sweet person, although I contend that a hundred Ridersup Contest titles in the world won't make someone a winning player in the real world.

Also, I happen to know that Light is house rich, and he is wealthy by my standards.

[Space Monkey]

Funny thing Cmoore, from what I've seen JP is a s chalky as they get. Now, I'll admit I have a hit and miss sample like I suspect you do. . I started following TLG's Twitter page and it seemed like he started off not so good. But then again the first 2 weeks of a meet are the toughest. Then he hit a $30 horse and then another good price one, so who knows. I'll go back to my previous comment, don't expect too much from these people. Watch their show and try to pick up on that 1 or 2 horses that might make your day.

[Indulto]

First of all, my only exposure to tlg’s “picks” are his DRF stakes race analyses in which he comes across as entertaining, and very knowledgeable in the use of utilizing DRF data which now includes video.

I see no reason not to accept his description of his work at NYRA as primarily to get people interested in handicapping and betting races as opposed to picking winners for them.

It may not be in NYRA’s interest to track their employees' selections, but it’s certainly in ours to build evidence that takeout is too high and, possibly that the type of races carded and field size are having a negative impact on handle as well.

And why limit the focus to tlg? Why not Grening, Kling, and other public selectors as well?

OA,
This thread continues on because of a concept NYRA needs to be encourged to embrace -- Give the customers what they want!

Maybe tlg’s show could use an infusion of fresh (hot?) talent with a guest co-host based on a promoted competition among individuals submitting their selections daily for the previous two weeks.

[JustRalph]

I have other ideas as to why Light has a Problem with Andy.....and they have nothing to do with Horse racing............... to light and his antics.........