TLG's Saratoga ROI

[chickenhead]

does anyone have the ROI for tlgs picks that were also grey? Now THAT would be interesting to me.

[DrugS]

Originally Posted by Space Monkey

You mind explaining that drug guy! Send me a PM if you want.

No need.

Shooting myself would be less painful than reading this thread.

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by cj

It is inaccurate and didn't account for some scratches and surface changes, but even if it were, that is pretty impressive to me. -7% betting every single race is pretty darn good.

The top two horses thing is pretty weak, very few players would do that. Maybe take highest odds of the two sure, but not blindly bet top two horses.

The exacta thing is pretty good too, but just blindly boxing top 3? Come on...

I think it was entertaining of light to do his analysis, but I don't think his results were meaningful.

I'd be interested in how the top picks did without scratches or surface changes, and how the pick 4 and pick 3s using the top 3, the top 4 picks, and/or both -- not including sequence of races including a surface change, but subtituting the favorite for scratches.

Seems to me that tlg would be keeping such figures for his own benefit.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Indulto

Seems to me that tlg would be keeping such figures for his own benefit.

I don't keep track of any of that stuff. It has nothing to do with what we are trying to do. Some people want picks, so we give them to them, but the show is about talking about the races and trying to convey what we find interesting about the game in general in the hope that some people will be drawn into it in the same way that many of us were.

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I don't keep track of any of that stuff. It has nothing to do with what we are trying to do. Some people want picks, so we give them to them, but the show is about talking about the races and trying to convey what we find interesting about the game in general in the hope that some people will be drawn into it in the same way that many of us were.

That works for me, but I'd still be interested in those figures if anybody ELSE were willing to compile them.

Nicely done tribute to RA, tlg. Any video/pictures of the dunking promo?

[Ian Meyers]

Originally Posted by cj

It is inaccurate and didn't account for some scratches and surface changes, but even if it were, that is pretty impressive to me. -7% betting every single race is pretty darn good.

The top two horses thing is pretty weak, very few players would do that. Maybe take highest odds of the two sure, but not blindly bet top two horses.

The exacta thing is pretty good too, but just blindly boxing top 3? Come on...

Yeah, I thought it was very good too. You lost less than 50% of the take playing every selection on top and I guarantee TLG passed on many races he was forced to make selections for.

I had to do this publicly for the TAM meet; it's very tough to pick every race every day.

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by Ian Meyers

Yeah, I thought it was very good too. You lost less than 50% of the take playing every selection on top and I guarantee TLG passed on many races he was forced to make selections for.

I had to do this publicly for the TAM meet; it's very tough to pick every race every day.

IM,
Was your top pick consistently in a certain category, e.g., most likely winner (in your estimation), likely best value, longshot with a chance, etc.? Was there any convention as to where you generally placed horses in each category and/or slot?

[Ian Meyers]

Originally Posted by Indulto

IM,
Was your top pick consistently in a certain category, e.g., most likely winner (in your estimation), likely best value, longshot with a chance, etc.? Was there any convention as to where you generally placed horses in each category and/or slot?

Good question. For the most part the top selection was the most likely winner except in what I thought ahead of time were wide open races. In those instances we'd say something like

"Horse X's last was better than it looked and though he might not win we'll key him with Horse A, Horse B and Horse C top and bottom and hope he gets a share."

In races that looked pretty cut and dry I tried not to go crazy trying to come up with a value play. The hard part was seeding horses 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, and I personally didn't always play my top choice. I can recall a grass race where I said four horses looked about equal and the public made one (I think my top choice) 6/5 and 2 of the others were 15-1+. Obviously in betting the race I played the two longshots and not the horse I picked on top (who I believe ran 3rd to the two bombs).

It's really a pretty difficult and for the most part thankless job; you get much more heat when your selections lose than you do credit for successes. I admire people like TLG, Mountainman, etc. that do this day in and day out.

[OTM Al]

I must voice my opinion of the complete lameness of this thread as well as that of those who would choose to spend their time on keeping track of what somebody else is picking. Who cares what Andy picks? (Well, unless it is My Pal Charlie, but that's different) Makes me almost wish this was a TVG bashing thread. At least there is a glimmer of thought involved in those...no that's a lie....

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

I must voice my opinion of the complete lameness of this thread as well as that of those who would choose to spend their time on keeping track of what somebody else is picking. Who cares what Andy picks? (Well, unless it is My Pal Charlie, but that's different) Makes me almost wish this was a TVG bashing thread. At least there is a glimmer of thought involved in those...no that's a lie....

[tribecaagent]

Hey Al,

If you think is so lame, why are you participating? Why would you waste your precious time with a response? Thank you for adding zero to this thread.

BTW - who uses a goat as an avatar? THAT'S LAME!

[Zaf]

Andy can pick em. I was there the day Andy said " you have to take a shot on Eltish Star" it was the 1st race Friday , a week before the Alabama, horse paid $55.50. Thank You Andy, that was the bright spot of a very brutal meet pour moi meme.

Z

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Andy can pick em. I was there the day Andy said " you have to take a shot on Eltish Star" it was the 1st race Friday , a week before the Alabama, horse paid $55.50. Thank You Andy, that was the bright spot of a very brutal meet pour moi meme.

Z

I picked him third.....so even though I said over the air I was betting him, Tweeted ( is that a verb? ) that I was betting him, and DID bet him.......it doesn't count. Just ask Light.

[BIG49010]

I wonder what the ROI is without the 2 yr Maiden races, which TLG always coveys that they are a crap shoot at the SPA? I follow along everyday with your coments, I think your one of the best out there.

[Fastracehorse]

That was the most incredible video.

fffastt