Making A Living betting Horses (My Opinion Of What It May Involve And Imply)

[proximity]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

this is a great thread. if everyone that said they are winning are actually winning, how come the handles are down 15% year to date? and since parimutual racing is a zero sum gain where is the money coming from that all you people are winning?
.

maybe the tracks have been cracking down on the late cancellations you're always talking about? this would decrease the handle, but make it easier for a greater number of bettors to win....

[Partsnut]

There is no "one way" of making a living at the track. Instead, consider some helpful attributes:

1. A way to accurately evaluate each race (or series of races) that interest you, whether you use software, the Form, or your own method.

2. The discipline to play only those horses or combinations which you perceive to be overlays which will mean passing many races, some of which you would have won had you bet.

3. The creativity to make the proper type of bet considering the particular circumstances of the situation (keying a horse for fourth, throwing out the second choice, using A's and B's and C's for multi-horse wagers, playing the daily double but not necessarily the win bets in either leg, betting a certain favorite to show, etc.).

4. A method of bet-sizing that considers factors such as your effect on the pool, your bankroll, the types of bets you make, the amount of value for the particular bet, your emotional big-bet threshhold, and several other factors.

5. The insistence on getting strong rebates, betting at Betfair, and similar deals which have a major effect on the bottom lines of nearly all the full-time players these days (including me).

6. A very large bankroll. If you have only $10,000 and bet a fairly safe 2% of your bankroll per bet and bet 8 races a day four days a week for 40 weeks a year, you're putting only $256,000 through the windows, which won't qualify you for much in rebates; if you do manage to get a 3% rebate and win 2% straight up (a much tougher long-term feat than some posters here may think), you'll make less than $13,000 annually. You can of course bet higher amounts, more races per day, more days, and more weeks--but there's no guarantee that this higher handle will help you win.
__________________
Barry Meadow

Barry, thank you for your opinion, to me it is the most credible opinion I've seen posted on this thread. I have read your book and believe you are the best authority on this subject. Thank you for participating. Your book is great and I use it as a reference and on a daily basis. One can only learn from you.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by proximity

maybe the tracks have been cracking down on the late cancellations you're always talking about? this would decrease the handle, but make it easier for a greater number of bettors to win....

that would be a good thing for the game if that were true

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by proximity

how safe is this 2 % is my question?

betting this on 8 overlays a day, i could lose all 8 and that would be 16% of my bankroll right there. (of course i know i'm the only player on here who can lose 8 races in a row. )

if this was the stock market this 16% would be one of the largest single day declines ever, but it's ok for my racing bankroll?

The #1 reason people blow up in Poker, The Stock Market and Horseracing is overbetting their bankroll, yet, you have "experts" here recommending betting $200 a race on a 10K roll.

[fast4522]

As usual I agree with something everyone has said on this subject. My take on this is people try to use software as the one size fits all, and in the end fail. You can make in excess of 20K part time without putting in 250k during the year. Betting to win cashing some and winning others and putting that huge amount back and forth brings some kind sick past time to thought, better left to those who wish to become blind doing it. I do feel it is the score once or twice a week that is needed sign job or not in order to be profitable. I will admit that its normal for me to have $5 to $25 bet to win on the bombs when they come in, but I often avoid the win pool like the herps for lack of value. I agree with my friend that the Sartin does not work as a primary means of being profitable, but do think it is a good secondary means. To explain the last statement is to say it is excellent as a vantage point of looking at the races. What works for one may not work for all. To suggest one vantage point is better than another is a stretch indeed. I would suggest you can be very profitable without rebates, betting to win, or doing what someone else posts. That being said, the most effective method I have found over the years is once you have won $250 us dollars leave, walk, run, or just do something else. Here is the logic in the last statement, most players forget what a days pay is. If I clip a gimmick in the second or third its see ya time. The expensive part of the sport of kings is the time involved, you can grind $100 to $200 in a very long day or just take the early luck and walk out the door when you get it. On many a nice day I have folded my laptop and packed it after clipping the first race and making $150 in 15 minutes. I may have planned to spend the afternoon in the Sports Book but when faced with short time with profit I manage my time to not make minimum wage. Talk of money management, system management goes so far. Personal control and time management is the key to this game.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by badcompany

The #1 reason people blow up in Poker, The Stock Market and Horseracing is overbetting their bankroll, yet, you have "experts" here recommending betting $200 a race on a 10K roll.

There isn't anything inherently wrong with betting $200 on a 10K roll. The estimated hit percentage hasn't been included in your example, and it would be necessary for most who bet on a formula. Also the idea of ruin point (which isn't that popular as far as i can tell).
but more popular is a fixed percentage, and 2% is generally excepted as ok.

My personal opinion is that 200K could range from slightly low to slightly high depending on the estimated hit percentage and where your ruin pint is. Insufficient information given.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by proximity

how safe is this 2 % is my question?

betting this on 8 overlays a day, i could lose all 8 and that would be 16% of my bankroll right there. (of course i know i'm the only player on here who can lose 8 races in a row. )

if this was the stock market this 16% would be one of the largest single day declines ever, but it's ok for my racing bankroll?

As usual, it depends on the hit rate and the expected returns. If you have a 20% hit rate, I think you'll lose 10 in a row about 1 time in 10, but if your methodology is postive expectation, this would just be part of the "normal" swings and over a a group of 100 bets or more, it would be a blip. The issue is whether you can handle it psychologically. It's definitely easier if you believe in what you are doing. In my case, the automated model I'm letting run is making 100s of bets a week, and it's fairly low return, so over any 10 bet sequence, I actualy expect to lose money about 40% of the time, which can make for a disheartening day, but it doesn't affect my betting going forward.

And comparing the decline to a day in the stock market doesn't really make that much sense since how many days in the stock market over a 8 position portfolio do you have the chance to double or triple your money in a day? The risk reward profile is much different.

[proximity]

Originally Posted by badcompany

The #1 reason people blow up in Poker, The Stock Market and Horseracing is overbetting their bankroll, yet, you have "experts" here recommending betting $200 a race on a 10K roll.

some are even recommending $500!!

[PanamaPete]

In staying with the topic of this thread I would like to submit. It is very possible for one to garner an excellent living from paramutual wagering (investing). However, IMHO there are some basic rules that must be followed.

1. This must be treated as a business, period. If you are looking for a hobby or recreational handicapping and a beer with the guy's, I suggest just have fun and forget about any profit.

2. You must keep excellent books. By that I mean records everything. Record not only your handicapping skill but every penny spent in that endeavor. If you are going to eat a snack mark it down.

3. If you are going to a track or an OTB, keep in mind this is a business. Do not discuss your affairs with anyone. Bragging rights about winning are for amateurs. By all means do not imbibe alcohol while working. You couldn't do it on a job and this is a job.

4. Tipping sellers when you hit a good mutual is optional. Bear in mind sellers don't tip when you lose. Besides, you are giving away your hard earned profits.

There's more if there is any interest.
pp

[andymays]

Originally Posted by PanamaPete

In staying with the topic of this thread I would like to submit. It is very possible for one to garner an excellent living from paramutual wagering (investing). However, IMHO there are some basic rules that must be followed.

1. This must be treated as a business, period. If you are looking for a hobby or recreational handicapping and a beer with the guy's, I suggest just have fun and forget about any profit.

2. You must keep excellent books. By that I mean records everything. Record not only your handicapping skill but every penny spent in that endeavor. If you are going to eat a snack mark it down.

3. If you are going to a track or an OTB, keep in mind this is a business. Do not discuss your affairs with anyone. Bragging rights about winning are for amateurs. By all means do not imbibe alcohol while working. You couldn't do it on a job and this is a job.

4. Tipping sellers when you hit a good mutual is optional. Bear in mind sellers don't tip when you lose. Besides, you are giving away your hard earned profits.

There's more if there is any interest.
pp

All good points Pete!

Patience and Discipline!

[fast4522]

Personal control and time management is the key to this game.
This thread was originated by a true gent who does it his way in order to live within his own skin, I adapt my play in order to live within mine.
Rules are good for people to follow in single file, if you prefer to adapt yours to be a robot then go for it.

[rokitman]

Originally Posted by andymays

All good points Pete!

Patience and Discipline!

And no sex until after you win!

Remember?

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by PanamaPete

4. Tipping sellers when you hit a good mutual is optional. Bear in mind sellers don't tip when you lose. Besides, you are giving away your hard earned profits.

.

NEVER understood this. The seller NEVER risked any money, never spent the time it takes as an apprentice to learn the games (capping and gambling)

[DanG]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

NEVER understood this. The seller NEVER risked any money, never spent the time it takes as an apprentice to learn the games (capping and gambling)

Good thread and I hope this doesn’t side track the conversation into tellers; but…

Personal choice, but if your playing in the same place consistently it can be to your benefit to take care of them just as you would Valet parking, or a waitress imo.

• Case in point #1; we tried to use the same teller at the Palm’s whenever possible and she would go out of her way to help us if the lines were deep in different ways. Canceling / changing wagers late and calling bets live it can really help if the puncher learns your personal cadence with complex wagering.

• Case in point #2: My brother’s best friend growing up wouldn’t leave them a nickel if he hit for 10 million and 5 cents. If they hesitated giving the change, he would scream “get a real job” as loud as you could imagine. To each their own I guess.

• Case in point #3: The cheat…we have all seen the teller who cheats and Tampa Greyhound track had one for years on the 2nd floor of the grandstand side that would often hold back a portion of the return hoping you just walked away. For these types; a Paulie Walnuts massage in the parking lot is too good for them.

[BMeadow]

To clear up any confusion, I never recommended betting 2% of your bankroll on a particular play. This is far too high a percentage for most players on most bets.

In fact, I have bet charts in my book Money Secrets At The Racetrack which cover the various amounts you could safely bet to win with a $2,000 bankroll, depending on hit rate and the perceived amount of overlay on a play. Extrapolating this to a $10K bankroll, if you make a horse 2-1 to win (33% chance of winning) and he goes off at 3-1, you would bet $100; if he goes off at 4-1, you would still bet only $125. And if you make a horse 7-2 to win (22% chance of winning) and he goes off at 6-1, you would bet just $65--again, far below 2% of bankroll even though you consider the horse a strong overlay.

If you bet 3-5 shots to show (and are a winning player, whether before or after rebates, and this may be a questionable assumption unless you've been doing this a long time), you can safely bet far more than 2% of your bankroll on a particular play. But if your typical play is on horses going off at 10-1 or higher, you need to be much, much more conservative; thinking you can bet 2% of your bankroll on these plays is a certain path to run. And if you think you can bet $200 pick 6's with a $10K bankroll, good luck on that plan!

So, to clear up any confusion: Bet sizing depends on a number of factors. The higher the hit rate on a particular type of play, the more you can safely bet; the lower the hit rate, the less you can safely bet. Many players have been done in by overbetting, believing that have a big edge when they have only a small edge, or none at all.

I should have been more clear in my example.

In any event, most players who attempt to do this as a serious business should have a back-up plan. If you have only a $10K bankroll, for instance, you're probably better off betting at levels as if you had only a $5K bankroll. This way, if you lose it all, you still have a backup bankroll to work with.

If you keep winning over an extended period of time, your bankroll will grow accordingly anyway.

For those interested, my website is www.trpublishing.com