Making A Living betting Horses (My Opinion Of What It May Involve And Imply)

[proximity]

Originally Posted by speculus

The other three are alcohol, drugs and prostitution!

do these industries offer rebates?

[speculus]

Originally Posted by proximity

do these industries offer rebates?

Alcohol: NO
Drugs: Don't know.
Prostitution: Too old to find out now!

[oexplayer68]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

The young man has it right in my opinion. Playing one track or circuit with a disciplined/ structured approach to vertical wagering is a must. I have followed this approach since 1992 and have been profitable all but two years. One of those years, last year, I could not play because of health issues.

I am a Hobbyist and have been since 1965. However, being a Hobbyist, doesn't preclude one from doing the same things that professionals do. There are thousands of non professional golfers trying to emulate the Pros everyday and many of those play very competitively on their home courses/ circuits.

Good for you Bruddah! That is an outstanding track record. Whether it's for fun, a hobby, or a full-time job, being profitable is what it's all about.

Specializing in a particular track or circuit is a sure way to have at least a slight edge over other players. I know I can tell you riding styles for every rider at the tracks I play. Throw in trainer moves and biases that continuously repeat themselves, and it makes the game that much easier.

Continued good luck to you with both your wagering and health!

[oexplayer68]

Originally Posted by badcompany

If you can't handle the harsh reality of what goes into being a professional gambler, then, maybe it's not for you.

It's easy to sit there and fantasize about spending your days at the track where you don't have a boss and you can't be fired. It's another box of twinkies to deal with an extended losing streak when you have bills to pay.

Say what you want about a day job, but, I've been at my current one for eight years and have yet to have a negative paycheck.

Very well said! It takes a very unique, or strange person to play this game for a living. Like they say with the market, "scared money always loses."

I have a buddy that works at Home Depot who I'm trying to help him subsidize his income. I tell the guy to hit something hard, and he bets $5 to win with a $2 exacta. The stuff I give him generally gets there yet he won't up his bets, even though he's knows how well I do. Bottom line is the guy just doesn't have the wherewithall or risk tolerance to step outside his comfort zone. I even offered to bankroll him free of charge, but he declined.

So unfortunately this guy is just happy with his $14 an hour job, and could never make it at this game full-time. That's ok, and perfectly fine mind you. It's helped me understand just how important a factor both your mind and confidence level truly are. So I see now that one good quality I seem to have is that nothing ever fazes me whether I'm going great or can't hit a thing. I just keep on firing, knowing that it will turn around.

Good luck!

[oexplayer68]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Reading this post was nearly unbelievable for me since it almost exactly describes myself. I can't remember having heard from this poster before even though he's been a member since 2005. I've been here only since May and I guess I like to post a whole lot more since most of my methodology has been put out on the forum in the past.

I play verticals almost exclusively. Sometimes horizontals especially with carryovers. Seems like we bet about the same amount (3m annually). Maybe I get a better rebate because he focuses on tracks where he gets a better kickback. I don't because my provider takes the exact same 10% of the track takeout and rebates the rest no matter what or where I play. So playing into a high-takeout pool is no issue because I get that much more of a rebate. I average about a 13.5% rebate on all bets and I have a consistently negative ROI. My best years are roughly -2%. I'm sure I could get a better ROI on straight bets but what he says is true. Bet size destroys the price and the gimmicks offer much better rebates because the track takeout is so much higher.

He's young. I'm old (63). Even though I am not automated (like him), we have an apparent philosophical difference about the possibilities of automation. He says it can never match what he sees with his eyes. I say that the brain makes decisions based on mathematical probabilities, which even if we don't realize it, can be quantified by numbers. In fact, numerical quantification is far more accurate over the long haul. Such quantification can be done with targeted data mining. Kasparov is a genius who said exactly the same thing as the poster until a computer destroyed him once and for all in chess. He'd said that a computer would never beat him because at his level, the game was more art than science. In defeat, Kasparov explained what he'd learned. He said he dominated other human players because they made mistakes in judgements now and then. But the computer was relentlessly accurate. Same with handicapping. We make hundreds of shaded decisions which are never applied equally. Those shades of decision could be researched for accuracy and then applied relentlessly through automation. I am very interested in doing this someday.

Other small differences. I don't play specific circuits. I am much more interested in field size (larger the better) and bet layout, by which I mean either (1) the degree of contention (higher the better) or (2) vulnerability of the favorite. Most of my best scores are made with the favorite off the ticket. As I've said before, the biggest overlays in the sport are in large-combination gimmicks on non-favorite types. Playing a specific circuit or two would cut my opportunities way down. Another drawback to playing a specific circuit is that you develop mental biases about it. These mindsets make it difficult to be properly flexible because you actually know too much, or think you do.

Wager structuring. Agree with the poster that this is critical. I have written about this before on the forum. In most races, weak E and E/P types are the best eliminations. S and P types are the best inclusions for underneath positions. They are often great value at huge prices because the public errs in consistently playing as if a 20-1 S-type to win is 20-1 not to make the ticket all together. How do I know this? The prices tell me it's true. As far as ticket width, it's not a problem for me. I play wide but that's a function of the type of race I play. If I can't play wide, I'd rather skip the event. I very rarely use a "key" horse because of the uncertainty principle that any horse will perform in a given race. Exceptions are price horses that I really like in the given scenario. Also, (and this could be important to the poster and others who play complex verticals) try dual key horses in certain situations to reduce bet size.

Finally, I agree that the game has gotten tougher. The casual money is drying up, probably due to the recession. Also, out-of-work computer programmers are taking up the game. These guys get good fast and are not gambling for recreation. As for self-control, this is an issue which could demand an entire book. The short version is never, ever vary your bet-size structure. You can vary bet size but only depending on a pre-determined basis based on opportunity of the individual wager.

Well Mark, like they say, great minds think alike LOL.

I like your rebate schedule! That's actually very unique.

I agree about looking for larger-sized fields with vulnerable favorites as that is where the boxcar payouts usually happen. That said I've made a lot of good hits, especially recently with chalk on top of overlays in the 2/3 hole. Personally I just play the race the way it's presented, as unless it's a really small field there is usually some sort of opportunity.

Concerning the software stuff, I just don't see how a computer program can spot things such as current biases, rider switches from a "send at all costs" guy to someone who can relax a horse, evaluating turnbacks and stretchouts, and so much more. I've read where some people just use it as a tool or supplement to the form, which makes sense to me in a way, but I can't comprehend how a piece of software can outperform someone with experience who really understand how a horse race is run.

Oh, you are right on when you talk about how different running styles comprise the outcome of a race. Add to that that a lot of jockeys typically try for the win and thus sacrifice second or third to an off the pace runner. I play only dirt, speed-favoring tracks, so you see this type of setup regularly.

It's scary to think what the game will be like in another five or ten years. I used to play Canterbury every day as it has always been my favorite track. The pools have become so small there, that I cannot wager like I usually do, which led me to move away from there this year. I fear it's just going to get worse, especially for the mid to small tracks.

Best of luck!

[oexplayer68]

Originally Posted by riskman

Thanks oexplayer and markgoldie for your informative posts in this thread. Both players wagering mainly on vertical propositions with monthly turnover in the 250K range. Volume plus rebates = nice profit if you can maintain a loss ratio near break even. When you think about it, this may be one of the few paths available to earn any serious money wagering in the parimutuel pools.
Higher takeout in verticals transforms into higher negotiated rebates. The risk is also increased as you extend upward from exacta, tri and super.The wagers become complex with more creative combinations required in the various slots.Definitely not a scenario for the deficient in spirit and courage.

Hey Riskman,

When I first decided to go pro, I read about a guy on the internet that played this way. I don't remember his name, but the guy just fired at em', lost a few points, and made it up and more with rebates.

After that I looked at my ROI on Brisbet, and I was showing a 9% positive ROI on trifectas over a three-year period. Now, keep in mind that I was not getting any rebates, so it occured to me that even if I had some variance in that ROI, it would most likely not go down much below square. My percentages on everything else except exactas was in the red, so I knew what my strengths and weaknesses were.

The greatest move I ever made was betting with Pinnacle for a couple of years. The money wasn't in the pool, and they rebated me 7% on every dollar I wagered. Now when you are playing Great Lake Downs, Canterbury, Emerald, ect; that money not being in the pool is the best rebate you could ever get on tri's and super's. I read where Rook and a couple of others had their wagers pooled and even duplicated, however that never happened to me for some reason.

Now some people do great at their jobs, and that's terrific, but I could never ever make the money that I make anywhere else. In Texas someone with a business degree is lucky to make 50K per year, and then they have to deal with all of the corporate BS.

I'll tell you one thing playing full-time for a few years does, at least to me, is it takes the fun out of the game. I remember how excited I used to get when I nailed a big tri, and I just don't have that any more. Maybe that's good.....I don't know, but it's much more of a job now than it used to be. '

Thank you for the kind words. Best of luck to you!

[oexplayer68]

Originally Posted by fmhealth

Hey OEX, a big WELCOME BACK! I've missed your insightful missives. BTW, keep your OEX eye on BHP & BIIB. Also, copper could just be the "new gold". Be well!

Thanks for the tips fmhealth! I've got a little FCX, so that is my copper play. You see inflation on the radar? I'm digging energy here, and am long Natural Gas futures along with the Canadian Royalty Trusts; HGT et. al.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

PaceAdvantage:

I like the board and it's content.

I prefer to know where the comments to my posts are coming from.
For the most part, the comments are made respectfully even though they may disagree with me, their comments are well taken and appreciated.

I am trying avoid any pissing contests or flame wars with people on this board that hide their identity and those that have over inflated egos and look to belittle others. I have no need for these type of people and will do my utmost to ignore their comments.

If I like a particular product I will freely express my opinion even though it may not be one of your advertisers. If I dislike a product and it is one of your advertisers products, I will freely express my opinion as well.

Those that want to read what I have to say will do so and those that don't, won't.

In other words, you want people to visit your blog, so you'll pimp it out here on PaceAdvantage....I get it....

And I hope you're not implying that one can't talk freely about products, whether good or bad, advertiser or not? Because I have ample evidence in the archives of people talking badly about current and past advertisers, as well as people talking kindly about products that are not and/or never were advertisers.

[Partsnut]

PaceAdvantage:

In other words, you want people to visit your blog, so you'll pimp it out here on PaceAdvantage....I get it....

And I hope you're not implying that one can't talk freely about products, whether good or bad, advertiser or not? Because I have ample evidence in the archives of people talking badly about current and past advertisers, as well as people talking kindly about products that are not and/or never were advertisers.

I think you've got the wrong idea. All I did was post an article That stated what works for me and it was with honest intentions to "share" with others.
If I offended you, I'll openly extend my apologies to you. My total interest is betting horses. I have no financial interest in any product. I do feel that if something works, people should know about it.
My blog is solely for my entertainment and the many friends that I have accumulated. Your implication that I would pimp anything is completely uncalled for and probably goes against your own rules which I noticed you tend to ignore when it comes to some of your faceless, know it all and egotistical posters.

Please let me know where I can find the rules for posting and I will read them and abide by them.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

PaceAdvantage:

I think you've got the wrong idea. All I did was post an article That stated what works for me and it was with honest intentions to "share" with others.
If I offended you, I'll openly extend my apologies to you. My total interest is betting horses. I have no financial interest in any product. I do feel that if something works, people should know about it.
My blog is solely for my entertainment and the many friends that I have accumulated. Your implication that I would pimp anything is completely uncalled for and probably goes against your own rules which I noticed you tend to ignore when it comes to some of your faceless, know it all and egotistical posters.

Please let me know where I can find the rules for posting and I will read them and abide by them.

Nice!

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

Please let me know where I can find the rules for posting and I will read them and abide by them.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/TOS_PrivacyStatement.html

Note bullet #8

[DeanT]

Chip Reese (RIP) one of the most successful gamblers out there told a story: He was on his way to visit his mother for a holiday of some sort. He stopped on the way for a poker game and won $20,000. It was cash of course. When he got to his mother's house he had to put it somewhere, so he threw it in the freezer. He had a good time and went home. Some months later, his mother called. She said 'I found a loaf of money in the freezer; is it yours?'

I thought that was telling. If you make a 20k score and have the ability to look at it as a part of your bankroll, or simply a score keeping device, one can be ok. If that 20k is a means to pay off a mortgage, or use to buy something, or something you would think about, it will be tough to be professional in racing/gambling, imo.

[Tom Barrister]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

PaceAdvantage:

Your implication that I would pimp anything is completely uncalled for and probably goes against your own rules which I noticed you tend to ignore when it comes to some of your faceless, know it all and egotistical posters.

Please let me know where I can find the rules for posting and I will read them and abide by them.

We aren't implying anything. We're flat out stating that you're pimping your blog, which is a violation of the TOS. Here is the exact wording from the Terms of Service page:

Originally Posted by ToS

You may only include URLs or active links to commercial & non-commercial sites for the purpose of expanding on comments or providing additional information as part of regular forum interactions.

You weren't doing that. You were flat posting an external link to your blog as the start of the thread. PA asked you why you didn't just post the contents of the blog here in the forum (so that everybody could read it without being obligated to visit your site), which would be acceptable, since it's your content (e.g. not copyrighted by somebody else). That should have been a clue to any intelligent person that it was okay to post the blog here and NOT OKAY to link to it in the future. So what did you do? When this thread appeared to have run its course, you posted a SECOND thread with a SECOND link to your blog. Hello? You didn't get the general idea the first time?

Then, when you're called on it, you do what all angry teenagers do: you called PA a dictator and accused him of playing favorites (by ignoring rulebreaking by others) and thus violating his own ToS, while pointing fingers at everybody else.

It certainly appears that you think you can do as you please here, and if you can't, your next move is to flame the founder of this forum and the people who disagree with your actions. If it were me in charge, your ass would have already been gone from here, because this isn't the first time you've done this (re: the PaceAppraiser endless-commercial from a while back). PA has far more patience for your temper tantrums and name-calling than I do.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by speculus

I would like to put a mild dissent to this otherwise good post by Markgoldie.

The human brain is genetically programmed NOT to make decisions based (exclusively) on mathematical probabilities, that's the reason we need help from math, logic and computing devices.

In principle, it is impossible for human brain to work purely as a math machine, devoid of any influence from (conscious & subconscious) emotions and memories which may be affecting our preferences (and therefore, final decisions) much more than we would like to think.

This is a favorite subject of mine. I agree with what you say in your post and since my post was rather long and touched on so many different subjects, I was less than precise.

When it comes to handicapping horses, the exercise is fundamentally mathematical. Why? Because we are seeking to interpret the numbers that are provided in the past performances. (And I realize I am slighting those who handicap purely by astrology, appearance, smell, or whatever else).

Digesting all the numbers leads us to the strength of the individual horse. This strength is a mathematical function of some combination of the numbers which comprise his past performance. Whether or not we think of it as a number is irrelevant because any strength comparison can be boiled down to a number (such as a percentage difference). By the way, this is why figs and numbers like Bris' Prime Power are so popular since they seek to boil a lot of complicated numbers down to one. This is what the brain seeks- clarity from chaos.

Now. When most handicappers are confronted with a variable which they consider important, they form a mental impression. For example, let's say that a player relies on Beyer figs to give him an ballpark idea of the horse's ability. But they see some things about the horse which are important and are not incorporated in the Beyer number. Let's say there's a favorable jockey switch, the horse is adding blinkers, he's 75 days from his last race, and he's running on dirt although he seems to be better on grass. What does the mind do with this information? Well, the usual is that an overall impression, either positive or negative is derived from this information. It then must be applied to the raw reckoning of the horse's basic strength which was provided by the Beyer number. Even if the handicapper does not write down a new, adjusted number, that's what the mind is attempting to do. Now. Multiply this by all the horses in the race who have their own extraneous plusses and minuses, and I think you can see how the mind is not going to arrive at something very accurate. Worse, when a subsequent race presents itself, there will be no guarantee at all that the mind applies the extraneous variables in any sort of consistent way.

So I completely agree with you that the mind fails in this attempt and as you say, needs help because it is not a purely mathematical machine. But my point is, with regards to this problem, it needs to be.

The more contentious question coming from the above example is whether or not the extraneous variables can be incorporated by means of a number. I say yes and the simplest way to prove it is the following: Since the problem is mathematical, as long as the mind recognizes that a variable is important, it is already seeking (in its own way) to put a mathematical value on it. I wrote on another post that when one person is describing something quantifiable to another, they use phrases like: somewhat, pretty much, not too much, very, not very, a whole lot, a tad, a bit, etc., etc. Often, the frustrated listener says, "Well on a scale of 1-10, what would you say?"

So this was my point. The mind is seeking a numerical-application number to a numerical problem and when it applies the answer, that answer is numerical in nature and effect, even if it is not thought of as a specific number by the mind. But, since it's nature is clearly numerical, it can always be expressed numerically. This, I feel is inarguable. Those that argue the reverse are doing so because they can't envision how such a number could be accurately found or how it could be incorporated close to post time. But all these variables can be quantified and through data mining, far more accurately than the mind's anecdotal impressions. And with the speed of computers, they can be incorporated very quickly.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

For those that have an interest.
Please click on the following link to view my post:
http://wp.me/ppTmJ-1p

A happy and safe labor day to all.

If you going to play this game to pay the mortgage (i.e., become a professional player) you must in my opinion decide on what type of gambler you are. According to Kenneth Arrow, the Nobel Prize winning economist who argues in his theorem on individual risk that there are three (3) types of risk: (a) Risk-Preferred, (b) Risk-Against, and (c) Risk-Neutral.

I bring this up because horseracing in terms of making money is about risk and if you don’t know where you fall on the risk continuum, you will probably not be a successful horseracing gambler no matter how good of handicapper that you are.

Once you have an understanding of your gambling risk profile you need to ask yourself if you have the discipline to control it. Opportunity in horse betting is rare and it doesn’t make any difference if it is flat win betting (my choice) or exotic betting, you must have the discipline to seize the opportunity.

You must also have patience and a good work ethic. That is you must be able to wait for that “rare opportunity” and work hard to find it.

If you have met the aforementioned criteria you must have a bankroll that is consistent with your goal of revenue earning. Yes, I understand that a $2.00 bettor can hit a boxcar exotic and be financially set for a long time, but the odds of that happening is very long; synonymous to hitting the lottery jackpot.

Another suggestion is become a loner. Many bettors lose because they “bet by committee.” This is okay if you and a group of friends go the track to enjoy the sport as a spectator and lay a few wooden nickels for fun. But if the mortgage, car payment, and all other financial liabilities are dependent on your winnings; then you must put in the effort and task to win as you would do with any other job.

Someone mentioned in one of the other posts in this thread that the bettor should wager at the larger tracks. I don’t disagree with this because the mutuel pools are larger, but with ITW and OTB wagering you don’t have to be physically at the big racetracks. However two of the best wagering venues are the KY Derby and the Breeders’ Cup races.