The coronavirus

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

for Thursday, December 31,2020

228,000 cases

3400 deaths

for Friday, January 1, 2020

166,000 new cases

2100 deaths

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by mountainman

She describes the virus as very, very nasty, with sufferers coughing up and sneezing out nearly indescribable chunks and strips of a hard bacon-like substance.

My morbid curiosity has me wanting to know more about this....

[lamboguy]

due mainly to holiday reporting, 24 states did not report at all, and probably over half the counties didn't report.

i am a big fan of fibonacci sequence, i am going to call for a top for this trend timewise to come in between April thru June. i am using last March as the A- point, the B would be July when the cases started to decline. the C started later on in October which makes the May- June area the D-point. at that time this should call for an immediate trend reversal. using this guess would bring us double the cases or more throughout the world by June before the new cases start to decline.

unlike my projection, the CDC is calling for the top of this cycle to come in end of February- first week in March for the United States, needless to say i hope they are right and i am wrong. my projection is much more simplistic than the CDC, they are taking into account the more wide spread use of masks and a big level of vaccinations that work using the effective rates. i am just using the number of months for a projection and i am no expert at spreading diseases, i am just guessing.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap;2687383
Dying form covid [B

before[/B] other longer term diseases can kill them does not REDUCE other longer term diseases.

I just saw this. You are pretty much at the point of becoming a laughing stock.

Did you read what I said? I said SHORT TERM.

If we have a group of 10 old people, they are all eventually going to die of something. It could be cancer, heart disease, diabetes, a heart attack, stroke etc..

Before Covid, whatever they died of got added to the bucket for that disease.

In comes Covid.

Those 10 old people all die prematurely of Covid.

Now we have 10 Covid deaths, but 10 fewer deaths by other causes.

Long term when Covid is no longer a factor, the stats will return to normal, but in the short term the distributions of deaths will change as a result of Covid deaths.

Again, no one wants anyone to die prematurely from Covid, but the data is obviously impacted as I said.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

due mainly to holiday reporting, 24 states did not report at all, and probably over half the counties didn't report.

i am a big fan of fibonacci sequence, i am going to call for a top for this trend timewise to come in between April thru June. i am using last March as the A- point, the B would be July when the cases started to decline. the C started later on in October which makes the May- June area the D-point. at that time this should call for an immediate trend reversal. using this guess would bring us double the cases or more throughout the world by June before the new cases start to decline.

unlike my projection, the CDC is calling for the top of this cycle to come in end of February- first week in March for the United States, needless to say i hope they are right and i am wrong. my projection is much more simplistic than the CDC, they are taking into account the more wide spread use of masks and a big level of vaccinations that work using the effective rates. i am just using the number of months for a projection and i am no expert at spreading diseases, i am just guessing.

I look at a lot of data. Several things were fairly clear.

A lot of the current spread is in areas that were not hit in phase one or phase two.

For example, NY got hit really hard in the first wave, but it was mostly NYC, Westchester, Long Island and areas within commuting distances of the city. Upstate NY was pretty much spared of a serious outbreak even though there were some cases. Now, it's growing rapidly upstate.

Phase two hit a lot of southern states.

Phase three hit the mid west.

The previous trend was that in places that were hit hard cases tended to eventually stabilize after awhile and then start dropping sharply as a certain percentage of the population was infected and people changed their behavior.

By "cases" I'm not referring to the inaccurate official case counts that HCP likes. I'm talking about the actual percentage of people that have been infected including asymptomatic cases and people that were never tested or never sick enough to get tested. Things tended to get a lot better once 15%-20% of the population was infected. We have estimates of those real numbers.

What we see now is that some of the places that had fully stabilized (like NYC and Long Island) are growing again. It's not nearly as bad as Phase One, but it's way worse than it was at the bottom. One has to wonder whether that new more contagious variant they've been talking about is already spreading rapidly in places like NYC. So combined with looser behavior the HIT rate changed.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

My morbid curiosity has me wanting to know more about this....

She scared me. Bigtime. I can't freaking STAND to sit around the house, but have pretty much decided to hunker down until I can get the vaccine.

When I do go to public places, I feel like a sailor in Quint's story, praying a shark doesn't attack me just before I get lifted to safety.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by mountainman

She scared me. Bigtime. I can't freaking STAND to sit around the house, but have pretty much decided to hunker down until I can get the vaccine.

When I do go to public places, I feel like a sailor in Quint's story, praying a shark doesn't attack me just before I get lifted to safety.

How old are you are what are your underlying conditions if I may ask?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

for Friday, January 1, 2020

166,000 new cases

2100 deaths

for Saturday, January 2, 2020

232,000 cases

2100 deaths

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by tucker6

How old are you are what are your underlying conditions if I may ask?

Sure. I'm 63 and have had serious lung issues my entire life. No, I have never smoked ( and refuse to be around it), but was born with pneumonia and have contracted it at least 4x during adult-hood. In addition, my heart beats sporadically ( a-fib) and I am on several meds for that. Also, I caught the legendary legionaire's disease during the small outbreak at mnr 2(?) years back.

In my favor, I took off 50 lbs this year and have always been extremely active for a fat guy. I jog 2 or 3 miles 3x a week and walk (HARD) up long, steep hills on the other days. Also, I have pumped iron for more than 30 years, and do so nowadays about twice a week.

In tolerably warm weather, I play 3 or 4 rounds of golf per week-and those "rounds" usually extend past the traditional 18 holes.

My son and I just got home from the South Park mall in Boardman, where we walked briskly for about an hour.

If I catch the virus, bet a few bucks on me, Tuck, but don't empty your wallet........

Oh yeah..almost forgot: I also have chronic bronchitis.

[davew]

how long will it be before the 'leaders' decide that covid spreads on dollar bills and cash will be outlawed?

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by davew

how long will it be before the 'leaders' decide that covid spreads on dollar bills and cash will be outlawed?

ANY infectious disease is spread by inanimate objects called FOMITES..


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1828811/

quote: Fomites consist of both porous and nonporous surfaces or objects that can become contaminated with pathogenic microorganisms and serve as vehicles in transmission.Fomites become contaminated with virus by direct contact with body secretions or fluids, contact with soiled hands, contact with aerosolized virus (large droplet spread) generated via talking, sneezing, coughing, or vomiting, or contact with airborne virus that settles after disturbance of a contaminated fomite

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by davew

how long will it be before the 'leaders' decide that covid spreads on dollar bills...

Who cares? I deal in hundred-dollar bills...and those don't get handled as often.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

for Saturday, January 2, 2020

232,000 cases

2100 deaths

for Sunday, January 3, 2021

194,000 cases

1400 deaths

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

for Sunday, January 3, 2021

194,000 cases

1400 deaths

EVERY DAY SHOULD BE DEEMED SUNDAY FROM NOW ON.

Pandemic solved.

[tucker6]

I noticed a trend on the graphs which shows large dips in cases and deaths on weekends. One could infer from the data that covid is both less contagious and less deadly. This can only further mean that the virus cycles on a 5 day on, two day off regimen. The data says it. I can’t be wrong if I use the data. Right?

This is the accuracy of data and related analyses. They’re mostly bunk with regard to data and analysis. Even the raw data is incorrect.