*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

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[sharkey11]

hey ncg is there a reason that my numbers for the power in plat. are diffrent the 7 threerun has a P#257 in plat. an trn mvs has 264 shouldnt they be the same ?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

hey ncg is there a reason that my numbers for the power in plat. are diffrent the 7 threerun has a P#257 in plat. an trn mvs has 264 shouldnt they be the same ?

They aren't exactly the same, sharkey. Trainer Moves uses best 3 of last 4 pace and speed figs. Platinum used only the last race's pace figs, and best of last two speed figs.

So...are they improved? I think so, and the results seem to show it. Even so, most of a horse's Power Numbers are in the same ballpark as previously. In most races the top power horses are top power in both programs. I haven't researched this yet, but I believe it's a GOOD thing for a higher power rating in the newer program.

THREE RUN HOMER improved by 7 points--the horses with higher numbers in Platinum either stayed the same or decreased.
Bris Prime Power (which is shown in both programs) stayed the same, of course.
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[NorCalGreg]

Had a chance to look at a couple races from GPX this morning, and played with the Daily Double Calc. that's included with Trainer Moves.

If you like fooling with numbers and stats (and what horse player doesn't?)...this is right in your wheelhouse.
3rd Race only had 6 entries...and it was quickly apparent who was a toss-out. 5-1 ML SANDY DUDE & 3-1 ML WEIGHT OF GLORY were ignored by bettors, leaving 4 horses in contention.
You could have played an exacta with the top-2...a tri or a super with the remaining contenders.
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In the 4th race, there was no doubt what the play was here: a straight win bet on the KATE'S KINGDOM.
She came on late and just ran out of running room (see the chartcaller's comments below)
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***If you would like more info on using the DD calculator, here is an excellent article isd1.com/atm-sma.html

[NorCalGreg]

Golden Gate has an interesting card today--since I do fairly well at GGX, decided to throw caution to the wind, and entered a head to head $800 contest (entry fee is $430)-races from of GGX and GPX.

Made my selections...and waited...and waited

No takers. None. Kind of a let-down, but oh well.

I was the "1" of 2

[NorCalGreg]

I think I would have won easily...4 wins, 4 seconds, in 10 races. My card I had filled out and ready:

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I think I would have won easily...4 wins, 4 seconds, in 10 races. My card I had filled out and ready:

Nice pics.... how did you pick Jimmyssmokedcarrot that one woulda have been your sealing pick for sure.

[NorCalGreg]

Jimmy smoked carrot......and I don't care 🎵

Actually, Simon - I noticed the pace looked fast at first glance, but (I usually have Platinum running during the day) look at the "beaten lengths" and JIMMY was the only horse in the race to jump to the lead 2 of his last 3 races. If you make a habit of checking to see who took the lead right out of the gate, sometimes you'll find a horse like that one. He will have a 0.00 BL1.
His avg purse at this distance was also much higher than the rest, and he ranked on top in Turf Blast as well. The main speed danger was obviously SYLVANELLA, who our boy caught around the far turn and breezed past by open lengths.

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Jimmy smoked carrot......and I don't care 🎵

Actually, Simon - I noticed the pace looked fast at first glance, but (I usually have Platinum running during the day) look at the "beaten lengths" and JIMMY was the only horse in the race to jump to the lead 2 of his last 3 races. If you make a habit of checking to see who took the lead right out of the gate, sometimes you'll find a horse like that one. He will have a 0.00 BL1.
His avg purse at this distance was also much higher than the rest, and he ranked on top in Turf Blast as well. The main speed danger was obviously SYLVANELLA, who our boy caught around the far turn and breezed past by open lengths.

Nice, thanks for the quick explanation I am always looking for these types of anomalies but am finding that too much information is blending them all together so I need to streamline and may cut back on the amount of tracks I am trying to look into at once.

[upthecreek]

Best 5 consensus
R1 Tampa, Ice cold exacta 3-6 for a $30 exacta Good start to the day!

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

Best 5 consensus
R1 Tampa, Ice cold exacta 3-6 for a $30 exacta Good start to the day!

A total of 6 exacta's in 9 races in the consensus Top 3 yesterday @Tam

[green80]

T/J money moves play


3/19 OP Race 6 #4 Emerald Princess $17.00

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

A total of 6 exacta's in 9 races in the consensus Top 3 yesterday @Tam

Wish I had played the exacta contest at Tampa...played SA consensus instead and got my @$$ handed to me

[oughtoh]

The Early Speed that Greg has been talking about hit the 5th at TB today for $15, was also the 2nd pick on best 5.

[NorCalGreg]

So far this year, anyway...Tampa, Golden Gate, and Delta look to be the top Pace-View tracks. At Parx hard to figure who's trying today--and who isn't.
A guy named Al Illitch (I thought he might be the former owner of the Detroit Tigers, but that's a different "Illitch")

This Illitch writes about horse racing...I found an article about his suggested way of playing the DD Calculator:

Al Illich Daily Double Angle

Divide the morning line odds listed in the program for the second half of the double into the amount that the winner of the first race will pay with the horse in the second race.

After calculating each horse's number, eliminate the first two favorites in the program (the lowest 2 morning line odds).

Keep any remaining horse that has a number under 20 (the answer of the calculation). Find the lowest number of the remaining horses. If this horse's number is 5 points lower than the others, this horse is a very strong contender to win the second race.

I'm not so sure that is the best way to play this method. How can you eliminate the top two betting favorites? They account for more than half the wins in horse racing.

I have a way of figuring any hidden money, without initially
dumping the two favorites, IMO. Just let the Calculator decide who stays and who goes. A quick example:
This was from AQ today:
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