*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[green80]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

If there was one, the Best 5 would be it. You just have to wait for your odds. Was practicing at GP today, Best 5 had 6 winners, had 7 yesterday with 5 of them being on top. Today in the 7,8 and 10th races it had the winners for $25, $13 and $19. The Best 5 has a lot more days with winners than days that it doesn't.

Oughtoh, how do you play best 5? Just bet any of the 3 that have good odds?

[oughtoh]

If it isn't the first pick, I want ML odds of 6-1 or higher or I don't mark them. If it is the number one pick and goes off at 4-1 or higher, I will bet it if it is one of the top 2 power numbers or is under the Class of the Speed in TM. You will have some bad days like anything else. If I am watching the races I use Greg's DD on TM, which I have probably used 40 years. Everything helps. I am trying to figure out a way to bet a few races a day in the morning and not have to watch all the races, but have not figured that out yet. The odds get me every time I do that.

[Kbatch57]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

If it isn't the first pick, I want ML odds of 6-1 or higher or I don't mark them. If it is the number one pick and goes off at 4-1 or higher, I will bet it if it is one of the top 2 power numbers or is under the Class of the Speed in TM. You will have some bad days like anything else. If I am watching the races I use Greg's DD on TM, which I have probably used 40 years. Everything helps. I am trying to figure out a way to bet a few races a day in the morning and not have to watch all the races, but have not figured that out yet. The odds get me every time I do that.

Hi,

Sounds like you need an ADW that offers conditional wagering where you can set the minimum odds for your bet. That way if the Horse goes off below your minimum odds the bet is not made.

[NorCalGreg]

Tonight on Horse Tourneys I played the $12 buy-in exacta box contest at Charlestown, as I usually do. As always, I just run the Best-Five Consensus, and copy the selections right off the sheet. If I were actually betting these--I would have passed on the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th since they didn't contain at least one horse @ 4-1 or better.

There were only 11 entries, and I had to beat 8 guys to finish 3rd. Third place paid $11.50 Life just isn't fair.

[oughtoh]

I did it last night and there were so many scratches, so I didn't bother looking at it tonight. Nice payoff in the 5th.

[NorCalGreg]

This was the easiest winner and trifecta yet, using the Trainer Moves DD "Hidden Money" calculator. Another feature of the calc. is to find vulnerable favorites, like the horse.
.

[NorCalGreg]

.
Since I'm not the boasting type, I won't bore you by posting up the Best-Five Consensus for Charlestown tonight.

Once again B-5 won the Horse Tourney exacta contest by hitting 7 of 8 exactas at the Chuck...and still won it by less than $5.00.

I'll take it...

-NCG

[oughtoh]

The Best 5, first 2 picks only, won every race at Mahoning Valley today. The 50 cent pk 5 for $113, pk 4 for 70 and the 20 cent pk 6 for 307. I didn't even know they had a pk 6.

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

The Best 5, first 2 picks only, won every race at Mahoning Valley today. The 50 cent pk 5 for $113, pk 4 for 70 and the 20 cent pk 6 for 307. I didn't even know they had a pk 6.

MVR and Best 5 is on fire....I hit that Pick 6 today WOOHOO !!!!!
Ticket I used top 2 picks for 3 legs, 2 legs used 3 horses then the last leg used 4 horses cost me $57.60 and paid me back $307.64

[oughtoh]

Wish I played those bets, just out of my budget anymore.

[oughtoh]

I hope people that can bet Laurel, which I can't, and have the Trainer Moves hit the 2nd race. TJ horse paid $52.

[NorCalGreg]

I like the way you have committed to winning @ horse betting, Simon. You are really giving 100% to this, which may be rare these days.

I see Replay Randall won a Tampa contest on Horse Tourneys last night, for a nice payoff. I know he used Platinum previously...that's probably what he used to win (he will, of course deny this )

I noticed a trainer there at Tampa named Rohan Crichton. Wasn't there an Elf in Lord of the Rings with that name? Okay I'm being silly.

There is a paper/pencil method that has been around for about a hundred years. It's still for sale, so I won't give the name of it here. The website where it is sold claims to have run an 800,000 race data-test (or something equally as outlandish)...and was wildly profitable.

Do you realize what would happen if this were--in some bizarro world--actually true? Racing as we know it, would cease to exist.
$2.10 win payoffs would be the norm. Racing would have to redesign the entire payout structure, if it could even be done.

Anyhoo...for scientific purposes, I posted yesterday's SA selections and today's as well. Actually it hit two yesterday that paid $7.20 each. Not profitable but not bad. The program I have, that this is on, has never been released... but may be in the future.

(ps: email me if you are curious about the name of the paper/pencil method)
.

[NorCalGreg]

The unnamed "mystery method" picks for today at SA did well...

1st race SENSEMAKER $21.00

5th race LULUMARU $11.00

There was no 2nd race selection...so the method hit 2 of 7 for $32.00.

I had mentioned a spot play on Trainer Moves using the EARLY SPEED BUTTON--then clicking on LATE POWER. Made an adjustment that seems to work a little better:

Click ALL - EARLY SPEED - then sort by POWER. Take the top two that are "singles", meaning they are the only horses, from any race, to appear on the list. Sometimes you'll get 2,3,4 or more from the same race. Just pass that race and keep looking. You may only get one "single" -or rarely, maybe none at all. Just play it as it comes and don't force the issue.

EARLY SPEED/TOP POWER SINGLES SUNDAY 3-14


SA 7TH DANCING DANA 5-1 3RD
5TH ETERNAL ENDEVOUR 7-2 2ND

TAM 2ND POSEIDEN'S PASSION 5-2 $3.40
4TH GRAN CASIQUE 3-1 2ND

OPX 8TH W W FITZY 6-1 3RD
5TH ENGLANDER 5-2 2ND

GPX 9TH OSAKA GIRL 3-1 X

GGX 4TH PROOF OF JAZZ 8-1 $29.20
2ND MULHIMA 5-1 $9.40

AQ 6TH MISTER BOBBY 3-1 $8.90
5TH LOST IN ROME 10-1 X

I just got an idea to restrict this play to races 5.5 to 4.5F only. I don't see a reason why that workout won't at least beat the track take. I'm hoping for better-we'll see. I'll keep you posted.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

"Take the top two that are "singles", meaning they are the only horses, from any race, to appear on the list. Sometimes you'll get 2,3,4 or more from the same race. Just pass that race and keep looking."

When you do get a race with 3,4, or more- listed on EARLY SPEED...you probably have a race shape over-weighted with early speed. Either a dominant speed horse will win it-or more likely a closer (or two) will pass the tiring leaders in the stretch run.

So while we pass this race for the EARLY SPEED play...make a note to come back to it. You may find a nice long shot closer in the bunch. Bettors generally ignore horses with no early speed, regardless of the pace picture.

[green80]

Trainer Moves Delta Downs Report:


The T/J money moves 0-fered today but the Top Power horse had 6 wins



(up to $9.00 ) and a second out of the 9 races today