The Travers - So who'd ya like ?

[David-LV]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Thanks, Both supers won. You hit that for 20 cents if you bet what i listed.

Your total investment in the race was $349.20 with a return of $1484.40. Very Nice.

Excellent structuring of your tickets, I learned something today from you about building tickets even thou I got beat in this race, but I hit the pick 4 for a bean and it sort of got me even at this stage of the day.

Thank You,

___________
David-LV

[David-LV]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Dude, you were dead wrong about Trappe Shot's energy distribution...and I was dead right...it's ok...you can admit it...there was no traffic...there was no Silky Sullivan...he sat fourth the whole time early on...

He was third after a quarter in 23.42
He was fourth after a half in 47.25
He was fourth after six panels in 111.39

Exactly like I said...no worse than 5th...you were wrong...his energy distribution in this race was not skewed late and the results prove that.

Aldebaran my ass...

This race may have been one furlong to long for Trappe Shot, I thought he ran a perfect race right up to the 1/8 pole, but then he was on empty.

Next time he goes at 9 furlongs and under I will be there like white on rice.

__________
David-LV

[speed]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

if the wins this, that one will have to overcome some big obstacles of late late pace and traffic troubles....He is almost in the Silky Sullivan, Aldebaran area of energy distribution

I had to take 46 off ignore for a moment to read a few of these comments.

Silky Sullivan was just seen turning over in his grave.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by speed

I had to take 46 off ignore for a moment to read a few of these comments.

Silky Sullivan was just seen turning over in his grave.

But...but...he's talking about energy distribution, not POSITIONAL...

He'll tell us all we have no clue what he is talking about...then again, I have been a student of Sartin for 20+ years...

So tell us 46, I guess by posting what you did, you meant to say that Trappe Shot would have a very easy trip tracking the early pace in 3rd and 4th? Is that what you meant to say?

[joanied]

Congrats to everyone who did good on their wagers...man, what a heartbreaker for Zito...and I hope Ice Box is OK...as he was pulled up...anyone has news on that?
Great stretch run, for sure...as for my picks...DUH , at least First Dude was right there, just like always...starting to remind me of Hard Spun...maybe they need to shorten that big boy up!!


I didn't look yet for a thread...but the Pacific Classic was a good one...of course I'm thrilled Richard's Kid won...again ...I posted someplace about wanting him to win...so, I'm a happy camper

(What happened to Informed Decision...maybe time to retire that mare...I was bummed)

[Stevie Belmont]

I totally blew this one. I changed the exactas I had with Fly Down and Afleet Express.

I never used Ice Box after seeing the bias.

Originally Posted by Stevie Belmont

Tough Travers this year. Miner's Reserve will go out, and that means anyone on the front end will have to deal with it, that means First Dude should have company. Not making a pick her, but Nick Zito holds a good hand. I expect both Ice Box and Fly Down to make a solid last bid. Trappe Shot should run well. Looking for value though, and he could go off the favorite.

The 5 I will use at this point are Trappe Shot, Ice Box, Fly Down, Afleet Express and Friend or Foe.

A Little Warm has never done anything wrong. I am looking for value here. Number dudes will tell you he is coming off twin tops. And they might not not dig that.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by David-LV

Your total investment in the race was $349.20 with a return of $1484.40. Very Nice.

Excellent structuring of your tickets, I learned something today from you about building tickets even thou I got beat in this race, but I hit the pick 4 for a bean and it sort of got me even at this stage of the day.

Thank You,

___________
David-LV

I appreciate that, you're welcome.

You can build tickets like this.

Divide the race up into 4 sections.

1) Singles
2) Alls
3) small packets (2 or 3 runners)
4) Larger packets (4 or 5 runners)

Work it like this.

Pick out a single and place him in a certain spot. For example, the 10 horse who finished 4th was over 40-1. Even though that horse had a shot to win, he was more likely to finish 3rd/4th than he was to win or finish 2nd. You can still make a nice score by getting him in the bottom of the belly.

I made a larger pack (because of the toughness of the race), used an ALL because even the longest odds horses were good and structured it to get that longshot to finish 4th. (and then 3rd in the tri)

If i went All w ALL w ALL w 10 that's too expensive. So, i took 4 horses and used them in the top 2 spots with the attitude that i just need one 'contender' to finish either 1st or 2nd.

You can use ALL's in certain spots, but you need SOME kind of opinion somewhere else because like i said three alls and a horse for 4th is too pricey.

Depends on your bankroll for a particular race in how many runners you want to use in your packet.

[Bullet Plane]

Stillriledup,

Good job with the exotic structure in this race.

[MNslappy]

How much did the bump at the start affect Trappe Shot's overall race?

[Tom]

and I hope Ice Box is OK...as he was pulled up...anyone has news on that?

Like a moron, I bet Ice Box by mistake....I thought A Little Warm was the 6.

So, I watched him and rooted...but it looked like he could not run straight in the stretch - kept veering in and bumped a horse twice...if that was him. Very erratic.

[Richard]

I'm pleased to say I had Afleet Express picked out Friday night.Used The old standby,the RTPC coupled with Taulbot's "V" for Victory angle which I detected in AE's Jim Dandy running line.In my initial handicapping,AE's raw score was only three points less than that of A Little Warm(the overall high scorer).Angle Percentage Points-wise,AE was definitely short of ALW(25 to 32).Nonetheless,in examining the JD running lines of both horses,AE ran much faster in the stretch than ALW.Translating this fact from 1-1/8m to 1-1/4m I felt this could contribute to the difference.I think I was more right than wrong,but not by much as it turned out.Ours can be a game of nostrils.

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by David-LV

I may be wrong but, I think the 6 is a little to slow for these.

You rarely get a very fast pace at 1 1/4 mile distance at Saratoga.

Good Luck,


_________
David-LV

You're right he was amazingly slow his two derby efforts were visually impressive but turned out to be mediocre and the apparent result of pace or track bias.

[rastajenk]

My selections were evenly distributed throughout the lower half of the chart.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by Tom

Like a moron, I bet Ice Box by mistake....I thought A Little Warm was the 6.

So, I watched him and rooted...but it looked like he could not run straight in the stretch - kept veering in and bumped a horse twice...if that was him. Very erratic.

AArrggghhh, Tom...bad boo-boo there...I had him picked for the place, figured the horse would redeem himself...gotta watch a replay and take a look at him, and as I said, hope he's OK...Zito cannot have slept well last night, missing the win by a hair and having Ice Box run so strange...I really thought my pick, First Dude, was in a great spot and he'd really run well in the stretch...maybe the change to blinkers didn't do him any good at all...and maybe they need to shorten him up a little...he sure is a tryin' SOB...just can't seem to get there...another Musket Man

[Robert Fischer]

and he lo ves 7-1

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

blue horseshoe lo ves Afleet Express