*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc - Page 458 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

NorCalGreg · 03-07-2021, 12:19 AM

HOUSTON

5TH FROSTY FLIRT $43.40

GULF

9TH WILLY BOI $9.60

GGX

6TH SENORITA ESTRELLA $22.60

TAMPA

2ND AMBER PARADISE $9.20

MAHONING

XXX

CHARLESTOWN

5TH BI BI CARPE $12.20

These were some of the "T/J$$" winners from Saturday's card. Most most the tracks avg appx 3 plays a day...although CTX only had the one 5th race winner appear on their list.

Sometimes once in a while, you'll see 5 or 6 T/J$$ qualifiers on the same card. Here's where you have to decide what you want to do--you can't bet them all, can you? My standard wager is $20, and I'm not really comfortable having a hundred dollars or more, tied up on one spot play at one track. Don't kid yourself--you can easily take a serious nosedive financially when that inevitable losing streak kicks in.

Soooo....I sort by Power Number and take a look at what we have. They are almost all longshots--so naturally they will look like crap at first glance, as longshots do.
Unless I have a reason not to, I usually take the top 3 and hope for the best.
This seems to work well for me.

Any questions or comments--post 'em up or call me.

-NCG

oughtoh · 03-07-2021, 11:40 AM

I know we all like to watch the big tracks, but the Best 5 at Mahoning Valley took all 8 races again yesterday. The final pick 4 only paid $20, but the first pick took every race. Put a 5 spot on the top pick and you come away with $100. Good luck with everyones betting today.

green80 · 03-08-2021, 03:19 PM

T/J money moves @ Delta today, 1 for 2 with the winner paying $22.00

green80 · 03-11-2021, 06:27 PM

tried the T/j Money Moves play at Delta this week, Mon- Thurs

results:

4 racing days

15 Plays

2 winners $22.00,19.80

nice ROI for the week

Kbatch57 · 03-11-2021, 07:37 PM

Hi,

Are you wagering $2 on each play to win?

Thanks.

NorCalGreg · 03-12-2021, 12:40 AM

Welcome to the forum, kbatch57. I know Mike bets Delta regularly--he even got me following the action. Most of the spot plays on Trainer Moves work best on the lower level tracks, and Delta fits that description nicely. I did see big winners at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, so winners can pop up anywhere.

One spot play is a little-known, but classic trainer maneuver: WORST RACE LAST. This situation (that's what spot-plays are--simply a "situation") occurs when a trainer has a horse he thinks is improving and ready to win. To insure a good price, he may enter the horse ...with a brand-x rider (usually-not always) aboard to hide his improvement by making no effort this race.
Some of the tricks they use is to run very wide, stay behind a wall of horses, never pass any horses, etc.

Now here's the key...if this is in fact a betting coup attempt--the trainer will enter his horse right back in 12 days or less off this dismal performance. It takes a skilled trainer to pull this off...you can look through past perf's any day and see what surely appear to be failed attempts at this maneuver.

To make this play completely mechanical, is difficult. The whole enterprise depends on the trainer's motives on this day. You won't see this play show up every day...but when it does it would behoove you to take a good look and get inside that trainer's head. Is this what you think it is? Or is he just an incompetent horseman. If the horse has been all over the place--different distances, surfaces, riders, way up in class, way down, etc...he is probably not a good bet. That's where your handicapping instincts come in.

These are the "WRL" plays from Delta this past week. Only 5 plays total--and personally I don't wager on this play at less than 6-1 ML.
.

oughtoh · 03-12-2021, 01:46 AM

There is one of those horses at Aq tomorrow that looks interesting. If you look at the last 2 races on the page and his first 2 races they look pretty much the same. Third race from the bottom he won. Comes back in 7 days, goes from non winner 3L to open for a 10k drop in claim price. He is 20-1 and I am probably way off, and he will run last, but willing to give him a shot.

green80 · 03-12-2021, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

Hi,

Are you wagering $2 on each play to win?

Thanks.

Yes, for the purpose of tracking plays I am using a $2 win bet.

If a spot play is making money you can always increase you bet size. If it doesn't why make a larger bet?

I personally use the base bet + % of profit method for my bets.

stuball · 03-12-2021, 11:35 AM

HOW DO you get WLR selections it is not on my version 13.1

Kbatch57 · 03-12-2021, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by green80

Yes, for the purpose of tracking plays I am using a $2 win bet.

If a spot play is making money you can always increase you bet size. If it doesn't why make a larger bet?

I personally use the base bet + % of profit method for my bets.

If a spot play is not making money over the long run why bet it at all?

I agree that if it is making money then make a larger bet since a lot of spot plays don't occur very often.

oughtoh · 03-12-2021, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stuball

HOW DO you get WLR selections it is not on my version 13.1

Hit the Porsche sign in the middle

NorCalGreg · 03-12-2021, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oughtoh

There is one of those horses at Aq tomorrow that looks interesting. If you look at the last 2 races on the page and his first 2 races they look pretty much the same. Third race from the bottom he won. Comes back in 7 days, goes from non winner 3L to open for a 10k drop in claim price. He is 20-1 and I am probably way off, and he will run last, but willing to give him a shot.

MISSION WRAP IT UP in the 3rd is a good example of the spot-play, Ed. Good trainer, switching to a jockey he's won 9 times with, blinkers on, class drop, 20-1 ML...he may not win, but keep betting horses with those qualifications and I believe you will profit.

KB...let me ask you one question: How many spot plays have you seen that can hold up to an extensive data-base test--and show a profit?

I'll take a wild guess and say...none.

That's where the handicapper comes in...find the tracks, distance, class, etc, where that particular play shows a profit. It could be one play a week...or one a month. You will not find a spot play that wins consistently, without the bettor paring down the selections to find that niche that wins.

Kbatch57 · 03-12-2021, 03:08 PM

NorCalGreg - I don't have an extensive Database in which to test with. I am basically just getting started with Horse Racing due to the demise of Greyhound Racing.

I am sure there are a few spot plays that have stood the test of time. It is just a matter of finding them

NorCalGreg · 03-12-2021, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kbatch57

NorCalGreg - I don't have an extensive Database in which to test with. I am basically just getting started with Horse Racing due to the demise of Greyhound Racing.

I am sure there are a few spot plays that have stood the test of time. It is just a matter of finding them

Yeah, who knows for sure what millions of horseplayers have found through the years.

I can pretty much guarantee you, though...any plays that are solidly profitable just by clicking a button, are not sold anywhere.

PS: Ed I would put MISSION WRAP IT on your horse watch. That trainer had two entries in that race...the better-looking of the two (in the pp's) was well meant and ran 2nd. Mission Wrap It Up never got going and may be back soon.

oughtoh · 03-12-2021, 06:04 PM

If there was one, the Best 5 would be it. You just have to wait for your odds. Was practicing at GP today, Best 5 had 6 winners, had 7 yesterday with 5 of them being on top. Today in the 7,8 and 10th races it had the winners for $25, $13 and $19. The Best 5 has a lot more days with winners than days that it doesn't.