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Old 12-14-2020, 05:10 PM   #1
Teach
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Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sunday, December 20

You may remember the closing scene in the 1977 crime-drama movie: “Looking for Mr. Goodbar.” Theresa’s (Diane Keaton) life is ebbing away as she’s being repeatedly stabbed by Gary (Tom Berenger).

You may view this as a sullen and awkwardly-stated analogy, but, in my opinion, it is a metaphor for New England Patriots’ chances of making the playoffs. In fact, their loss to the Rams on Thursday Night Football may have been their coda tune. As one wag once put it, “Their (Patriots) chances are between slim and none, and ‘Slim’ has just left the building.”

At the very least, “Bill Belichick’s boys” will need to “run the table” and then, as the Beatles would sing, they likely need “a little help from (their) friends,” the other NFL teams.

The Patriots may have reached their high-water mark when they shellacked the Los Angles Chargers, 45-0; yet last week they came back down to earth in losing to the Los Angeles Rams, 24-3.

The road ahead doesn’t get any easier. This coming Sunday at 1:00 p.m. the Patriots face off against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock (more on that in a moment). The Pats then host the Bills and finish off with the hapless Jets.

My thinking and prognostications say that the Patriots lose this Sunday to “The Fish.” The extended weather forecast for Miami has temperatures on Sunday approaching 80 degrees, with moderate humidity. It’s one thing to be practicing and playing down there; it’s a whole ‘nother ballgame if you’re not used to it. If you’re not, it can, over time, wear you down.

First, I’ll mention that Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is improving with each passing week. He played well in the Dolphins most recent loss to Kansas City. It should be noted that the Dolphins were trailing 30-10 going into the 4th quarter. Miami rallied for 17 points while holding the Chiefs to just a field goal, but alack and alas, it wasn’t enough as Dolphins lost, 33-27.

Tagovailoa went 28-48 with 2 TD’s and one INT. His primary target was Lynn Boden Jr. who made 7 catches for 82 yards. Yet it was the running game that was paltry as the Dolphins rushed for just 80 yds. (Tagovailoa had 24 of those) on 24 carries. That averages out to 3.3 yds. per carry.

Miami certainly had excuses. First, they were playing without their defensive signal-caller, the Ex-Pat, Kyle Van Noy. They were also without Elandon Roberts. In addition, the Dolphins’ top three rushers didn’t play against the Chiefs. In addition, during the game, the Dolphins lost two key players, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. As matters stand, the Dolphins are clinging to the last playoff spot. There is little margin for error. Miami head coach, the former Patriots coach, Brian Flores, knows that, as do his players. This game against the Patriots is a “must game” for the Dolphins. If the sense urgency isn’t there, the Dolphins, in my opinion, don’t belong in the playoffs. After Sunday’s game with New England, Miami finishes up on the road against the Raiders in Las Vegas and the Bills in Buffalo. Those two games would appear to be must-win contests if the Dolphins hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. As far as this Sunday’s game, the Dolphins should have some of their “weapons” back, both on offense and defense.

Other factors I’m considering, as previouisly cited, is the weather. That Miami heat, even as we approach the winter solstice, can take its toll on opposing teams who are not used to those conditions.

Further the Dolphins are not same team that lost to the Patriots in the opening week of the season, 21-11. Maybe, just maybe, there’s a score to settle. If the Patriots were to lose, as cited, it would end any fleeting hope that they might make the playoffs.

Further, the quarterback situation appears muddled. All reports say that Cam Newton will start, but what do the Patriots do with Jarrett Stidham. He saw some action against the Rams. Yet Newton or Stidham appears able to effectively throw the long ball. In addition, the Patriots do not have a deep-threat receiver. In the rushing department, the running game appears devoid of a breakaway threat.

In the most recent game the Rams, Newton connected on just 9 of 16 passes for 119 yards. Stidham was 5 for 7 for 27 yards. In the rushing department, the Patriots rushed for 107 yards on 29 carries, a 3.7 per-carry average.

The usually reliable Patriots defense could not stop the Rams’ Cam Akers who rushed for 171 yards on 29 carries. Akers also caught two passes for 23 yards.

In summarizing, I don’t believe the Patriots have enough “weapons” to contend with the Dolphins. The Patriots seem to have to rely on sustaining long drives; that can be fraught with peril.

Moreover if the Dolphins get up early, similar to their game with the Chiefs, the Patriots don’t have the overall talent, unlike the Chiefs, to mount a comeback.

As far as the line for this Sunday’s game, the last I saw the Dolphins were – 2.5. I’ll lay to 2.5 and take the Dolphins. I believe the Dolphins can win Sunday’s game, outright. The last I saw, the over-under was: 41.5. I’m leaning toward the over.
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Old 12-14-2020, 08:56 PM   #2
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Agree 100%

Z
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Old 12-16-2020, 07:56 PM   #3
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I agree on Miami. But I’d be wary of the over even with the low number. The strength of both teams is defense. Plus, the Patriots are playing one dimensional football. Running too much . The Qb sneak on fourth and goal vs the Rams was suicide. And Miami plays a similar defense. Patriots also refused to kick FG in that game which is troubling for getting over. Hopefully, they almost have to change that game plan or have mistakes go their way. They scored 45 on the Chargers but there were some very big breaks and fluke plays . I didn’t see that game in entirety. The Rams game I watched and that offense was offensive. I have friends here that are Pats fans. They are huge in upstate NY. He changed the channel at halftime. It’s not just Cams fault , you can’t run like that in the Red Zone on a stout defense.

Last edited by burnsy; 12-16-2020 at 07:58 PM.
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Old 12-17-2020, 01:44 AM   #4
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i think it was kinda over before it began for new england with all the opt outs.

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Old 12-17-2020, 03:09 AM   #5
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Might want to consider Coach Bellichik’s record vs. rookie QB’s before you venture too deep.
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Old 12-17-2020, 03:38 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Donovon View Post
Might want to consider Coach Bellichik’s record vs. rookie QB’s before you venture too deep.
Fair enough. But, shouldn't we also consider coach Belichick's record without Tom Brady?
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Old 12-17-2020, 10:55 AM   #7
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I would be VERY SURPRISED if the ego overload (aka Cam Newton) will be coming back next season on the same team, or at least at first string status.
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