DRF sold

[BMustang]

OK, I'll fess up, I use the track variant figure with regularity in my handicapping.

I play primarily cheaper tracks, and when I see a horse run in a 6f race that goes in 1:14 I immediately consult the variant figure to determine it if was a race with slow horses, or a race conducted on a "heavy" race track.

Some of the wintertime variant figures at Mahoning Valley (OH) are ridiculously high, as are the race times. They at least provide me with some semblance of just how slow the track was that the slow times are run on.

Also if a horse is running in a 20k optional claimer and his opponents are doing it in races going in 1:10 and he has most recently been beaten in a race going in 1:12, I will immediately glance at the variant figure to see if he had an excuse or not. I still tend to add the Speed Fig with the Track Variant is see if a horse is in the same class as his competition.

Point out the error of my ways! Am I supposed to simply rely on raw Beyer Speed Figures????? At cheaper tracks they are inconsistent at best.

Tell me where I am going wrong. At 70 I'm still not too old to learn, or am I beyond hope???

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BMustang

OK, I'll fess up, I use the track variant figure with regularity in my handicapping.

I play primarily cheaper tracks, and when I see a horse run in a 6f race that goes in 1:14 I immediately consult the variant figure to determine it if was a race with slow horses, or a race conducted on a "heavy" race track.

Some of the wintertime variant figures at Mahoning Valley (OH) are ridiculously high, as are the race times. They at least provide me with some semblance of just how slow the track was that the slow times are run on.

Also if a horse is running in a 20k optional claimer and his opponents are doing it in races going in 1:10 and he has most recently been beaten in a race going in 1:12, I will immediately glance at the variant figure to see if he had an excuse or not. I still tend to add the Speed Fig with the Track Variant is see if a horse is in the same class as his competition.

Point out the error of my ways! Am I supposed to simply rely on raw Beyer Speed Figures????? At cheaper tracks they are inconsistent at best.

Tell me where I am going wrong. At 70 I'm still not too old to learn, or am I beyond hope???

Here's what I think you should do, if you insist on using the DRF track variant:

Use the variant in its entirety only if it's up to 20...and, when the variant is over 20...divide the difference by 2. Consequently...a variant of 24 becomes a 22...and a variant of 28 becomes a 24. Also, when you are adding the speed rating and the variant together...you need to make an adjustment to the SPEED RATING, when the race is a short sprint. If a 5.5 furlong race has a speed rating of 80...reduce it by 5 to a 75. And, if a 5 furlong race is an 80...then reduce it by 10 to a 70. Otherwise...the short sprints won't compare well to the longer sprints of 6, 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

I think he's the next coming of Private Zone (also trained by Navarro) for whatever that's worth.

good call

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Here's what I think you should do, if you insist on using the DRF track variant:

Use the variant in its entirety only if it's up to 20...and, when the variant is over 20...divide the difference by 2. Consequently...a variant of 24 becomes a 22...and a variant of 28 becomes a 24. Also, when you are adding the speed rating and the variant together...you need to make an adjustment to the SPEED RATING, when the race is a short sprint. If a 5.5 furlong race has a speed rating of 80...reduce it by 5 to a 75. And, if a 5 furlong race is an 80...then reduce it by 10 to a 70. Otherwise...the short sprints won't compare well to the longer sprints of 6, 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

That's similar to how I use the variant.

William L. Scott made a chart how he modifies it.

I rate dirt/synthetic variants of 16-18 as neutral. Above 18, I adjust one for two. 19 and 20 subtract won tick. 29-30 subtract 6 ticks.

Low variants I adjust one for 2 until variant is 3. 4-5 I add 6 ticks, variant of 3 add 7 ticks, 2, add 8 ticks to Total Pace Rating.

If I see a very large or very low I prefer to not use the race and will find one within range. A lightly raced horse, or a horse with only a few at todays distance might force me to use a pace line with a high or low variant.

Another way I use DRF variants is when I buy the Cynthia Pars. They print an average variant for sprint and routes. I adjust the ratings I use by the variant for my track to track comparison chart.

Example--CD 6f $10k claimers run 1:10.1 with a fast track variant of 12 so I rate it 1:10.3 or 87 on my comparison chart.

Ellis Park 10k is 1:09.4 with a variant of 5 or 1:11.0 or 90 on my chart.

Parx is 1:11.2 with 26 variant or 1:10.3.

Then when I rate the horse I will adjust with the variant for that day.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Daily Racing Program is a DRF product...so no matter which print product they are buying, DRF is making coin...like I said, the print editions (either DRF or DRP) aren't going away anytime soon.

Perhaps.
However, as sales slide, adjustments will have to be made

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by Afleet

good call

Thanks. To CJ's point, he wasn't one of Navarro's turnarounds to be sure so I guess I could have been clearer in that he might be the next coming of Private Zone in terms of winning a bunch of graded stakes in powerful fashion, although I didn't imagine an 8 length win.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

That's similar to how I use the variant.

William L. Scott made a chart how he modifies it.

I rate dirt/synthetic variants of 16-18 as neutral. Above 18, I adjust one for two. 19 and 20 subtract won tick. 29-30 subtract 6 ticks.

Low variants I adjust one for 2 until variant is 3. 4-5 I add 6 ticks, variant of 3 add 7 ticks, 2, add 8 ticks to Total Pace Rating.

If I see a very large or very low I prefer to not use the race and will find one within range. A lightly raced horse, or a horse with only a few at todays distance might force me to use a pace line with a high or low variant.

Another way I use DRF variants is when I buy the Cynthia Pars. They print an average variant for sprint and routes. I adjust the ratings I use by the variant for my track to track comparison chart.

Example--CD 6f $10k claimers run 1:10.1 with a fast track variant of 12 so I rate it 1:10.3 or 87 on my comparison chart.

Ellis Park 10k is 1:09.4 with a variant of 5 or 1:11.0 or 90 on my chart.

Parx is 1:11.2 with 26 variant or 1:10.3.

Then when I rate the horse I will adjust with the variant for that day.

Garbage in garbage out IMO. The Racing Form variant measures nothing. It is like a postulate as to how many angels dance on the head of a pin.

So you can't "adjust" it to measure something it doesn't measure.

This is exactly what led me to speed figures in the 1980's. The fundamental insight, which Beyer credits to Sheldon Kovitz but I am sure goes back to the 1930's at least, is that you have to measure track speed based on what horses are expected to run, not based on track records. Every speed figure system is based on this principle in one form or another and you literally can't measure horses' speed without it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Different owner for awhile now, and same horrible checkout process. It's as if they don't want customers to buy PPs at the site.

[chiguy]

I could see the new owners including or creating additional content for sports betting. Don't forget that in game betting is going to become huge and having a database of information regarding situational hitting and pitching in baseball for example might be worth something. What does Jon Lester throw on the first pitch to a right handed batter with men on first and third when he has already thrown between 65-75 pitches?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Different owner for awhile now, and same horrible checkout process. It's as if they don't want customers to buy PPs at the site.

I predict things will get better and soon. The new CEO has only been in place a very short time.

[Franco Santiago]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Shown 'Z' door?

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

Good one.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Different owner for awhile now, and same horrible checkout process. It's as if they don't want customers to buy PPs at the site.

And the damn pages keep changing so once you figure out a way to check out, it goes away. To get to my DRF+, I have to log in 2-3 times. At least 2. Now, the log in option at the top is replaced with a cart.

I have had people who hate my guys treat me better than those inept clowns at DRF.

Thanks GOD for Lonnie - without him, they would never sell dollar #1.

[dilanesp]

[deleted]

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Tom

And the damn pages keep changing so once you figure out a way to check out, it goes away. To get to my DRF+, I have to log in 2-3 times. At least 2. Now, the log in option at the top is replaced with a cart.

I have had people who hate my guys treat me better than those inept clowns at DRF.

Thanks GOD for Lonnie - without him, they would never sell dollar #1.

I'm usually the one saying racing fans whine too much, but I literally could not buy the PPs yesterday. This has been an issue for years now. Could the checkout process be any worse? I wish TimeFormUS had stayed completely independent of DRF. I haven't followed it closely, but there's obviously some type of alliance between the two. With digital PPs, DRF's distribution advantage had disappeared, and TFUS was/(is?) a real threat. Wait, they don't even sell hard copies at CD (is that still the case?) anyway.

[Tom]

Mike - you can still EASILY buy TFUS PPs at the timeform website.
I always buy them there - give the credit where it belongs.