SPEED FIGURE COMPARISONS

[formula_2002]

I WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY ANALYSIS OF DOLLAR RETURNS FOR ANY CONDITION(S) BE DONE IN ACCORDANCE WITH DR BURTON FABRICAND'S BOOK, "HORSE SENSE", SPECIFICALLY CHAPTER 8, "RESULTS"
IT'S AN ANALYSIS BASED ON INCREMENTAL ODDS, DETERMINING THEIR VALUE USING STANDARD DEVIATION.

IT'S NOT COMPLICATED.
TO QUOTE, "THOSE WHO WISH TO USE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE MONEY WILL FIND A SIMPLE PROCEDURE FOR DOING SO.

[Tom]

Give up on speed figures now?

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by cj

I think he is too high on that number, and I have it high for me as is. He's another 10 points faster. Differing opinions is what makes the game great.

Hey CJ, could you look at post 29 & 30. Would you know what those are?

[cj]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

Hey CJ, could you look at post 29 & 30. Would you know what those are?

It has been a long time since I used BRIS, but Tom has the right I think.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=drfsff

I don't remember those fields for DRF Speed Figure and Variant being populated but I could be wrong.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY ANALYSIS OF DOLLAR RETURNS FOR ANY CONDITION(S) BE DONE IN ACCORDANCE WITH DR BURTON FABRICAND'S BOOK, "HORSE SENSE", SPECIFICALLY CHAPTER 8, "RESULTS"
IT'S AN ANALYSIS BASED ON INCREMENTAL ODDS, DETERMINING THEIR VALUE USING STANDARD DEVIATION.

IT'S NOT COMPLICATED.
TO QUOTE, "THOSE WHO WISH TO USE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE MONEY WILL FIND A SIMPLE PROCEDURE FOR DOING SO.

I also read Dr. Fabricand's book (don't recall the title) where he begins with favorites because of all the choices they have the best R.O.I. He knows that they still represent a loss but, just as when crossing a river one steps on the stones that are closest to the surface, one should chose the horses that are is closest to a profit and then try to improve on that.

However, he also has specific criteria for which favorites to play. That's why you have to be specific as to which criteria you want to use in deciding the top figure horse. That is all cj is asking. He can't do a study for every single way to use speed figures. There are just too many. You have to decide which you want him to use.

If it's any help, he has done studies based on 2 criteria for the top TFUS figure. One is for the best figure in the last race at todays distance/surface which I believe had a 30% win %. For the Spotlight Figure, which looks at the horse's most recent race which is the most representative, the win % was around 29%. I don't recall the R.O.I.s but I remember that both were higher than the public favorite. I'm sure he could tell you. You just have to specify what you want. You also have to ask each other figure maker you want to compare the same question using the same criteria. How obliging they will be, I don't know.

[JJMartin]

I would go with the average of best 2 of last 4 personally.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I also read Dr. Fabricand's book (don't recall the title) where he begins with favorites because of all the choices they have the best R.O.I. He knows that they still represent a loss but, just as when crossing a river one steps on the stones that are closest to the surface, one should chose the horses that are is closest to a profit and then try to improve on that.

However, he also has specific criteria for which favorites to play. That's why you have to be specific as to which criteria you want to use in deciding the top figure horse. That is all cj is asking. He can't do a study for every single way to use speed figures. There are just too many. You have to decide which you want him to use.

If it's any help, he has done studies based on 2 criteria for the top TFUS figure. One is for the best figure in the last race at todays distance/surface which I believe had a 30% win %. For the Spotlight Figure, which looks at the horse's most recent race which is the most representative, the win % was around 29%. I don't recall the R.O.I.s but I remember that both were higher than the public favorite. I'm sure he could tell you. You just have to specify what you want. You also have to ask each other figure maker you want to compare the same question using the same criteria. How obliging they will be, I don't know.

that's very telling

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

that's very telling

Yes, it's telling us that speed figure making and handicapping is part art and part science. It's not the over-simplified notion that many people have that it just consists of adding or looking at a few numbers and just choosing the top one. Numbers are powerful things that can tell us a lot about reality (that's the science part), but we have to ask the right questions. We also have to acknowledge that some things cannot be quantified and any good figure handicapper knows that (that's the art part). cj is probably the best figure maker around but even he does not always bet the horse that gets his top number.

[Tom]

Good sow at ATR today - several good segments on the BC/Pace/Variants with Paul Matice and Steve Haskin.
Worth the time.

Paul is first hour, Steve the third.