Breeders Cup 2015-PA Version of the Legendary Trips and Traps - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

EMD4ME · 10-16-2015, 08:37 PM

Alright PA members. Had a crazy idea AND I DON'T WANT TO PLAGARIZE TLG'S AWESOME show, Trips and Traps but I guess in a way I am. I want, with your participation, to select races to review and for PA members to give their opinions on who had a dressed up "trap" of a trip and who had an unfortunately poor trip. The "WHY" is the most important part of this and my goal is for everyone to learn from eachother in attempt for all of us to better be equipped for the Breeders Cup.

I'll start, with my tentative selection in the Breeders Cup Classic (Pending offical PP's, track trends, workouts, etc. etc.) TONALIST.

As I have pointed out, annoyingly, poor Tonalist has had some questionable trips in 2015.

I'll start with the Met Mile. Everyone talks about how HC smoked him. I beg to differ. Here is my "WHY":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEyGKSqHve0

Tonalist broke last, (THE ABSOLUTE GREATEST PLACE TO BE in this specific race) and it was completely obvious that JV was a man with no clue where, why, who, when and what he was doing on this warm Saturday in June. He was 2 lengths behind HC early and was driving Tonalist as if it was a quarter horse race at Los Alamitos

.

He continued to rally in the 1st quarter of the race, while HC was ALLOWED TO SETTLE and fall back to last. Tonalist was used to run into a 4 horse wall in the Q2, while again HC was rating on the rail in last. JV, was using his horse to race behind a 4 horse wall on the far turn, wasted energy to race 5 wide around the far turn and completely took the starch out of Tonalist in this race.

Tonalist also received poor trips, an extremely poor trip in the Suburban and to me had a deceptively poor ride in the Whitney. In due time, I'll review that as well but wanted to focus on 1 race at a time.

Who saw the same thing?

Who disagrees and thinks I'm a numbskull?

Who liked HC's race?

Who thinks otherwise?

Who had a great trip and should be discounted?

Who else had a poor trip and should be given a pass for this race?

What other races are embedded in your minds as BC 2015 approaches?

arw629 · 10-16-2015, 09:39 PM

I completely agree with you on Tonalist, but I don't know if I would blame the jockey...
Tonalist has been in the toughest Nyra races this yr and the Met mile and whitney both had insane paces making it difficult on riders to time rides from off the pace ...so maybe you're right he got a bad ride but the jockey is only human and those were some very tough spots to be put in....in the JCGC Tonalist was able to run his race bc the jockey and horse didn't have to worry about such a hot pace and decision making was a little easier ....i don't expect a super hot pace in the classic but something similar to the JCGC where Tonalist will be rewarded for being tactical and can get trip out and get the job done....if this makes no sense at all it's bc I'm sick and typing this on a crappy phone ....i might be bias bc I'm a big tonalist fan and believe he is very unlucky to not have more wins due to let's face it ..bad luck .....he's going to win the BCC

cbp · 10-16-2015, 09:46 PM

Let's see:

Tonalist runs before HC in the Met and gets smoked.
Tonalist runs after HC in the Whitney and gets smoked.

Tonalist appears to be finishing very well in both races but both races were essentially falling apart and he just couldn't run with HC when it counted.

Conclusion: HC is more athletic and has a quicker burst than Tonalist. He will always outfinish Tonalist.

Suggestion: Ticky tack fouls are usually not called in the NBA and have no bearing on the outcome of games. Ticky tack trip handicapping is the second step up the tripping ladder: right after noting troubled trips. Consider the horses trip in light of how the race shapes up and stop finding excuses for efforts that are not good enough.

EMD4ME · 10-16-2015, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbp

Let's see:

Tonalist runs before HC in the Met and gets smoked.
Tonalist runs after HC in the Whitney and gets smoked.

Tonalist appears to be finishing very well in both races but both races were essentially falling apart and he just couldn't run with HC when it counted.

Conclusion: HC is more athletic and has a quicker burst than Tonalist. He will always outfinish Tonalist.

Suggestion: Ticky tack fouls are usually not called in the NBA and have no bearing on the outcome of games. Ticky tack trip handicapping is the second step up the tripping ladder: right after noting troubled trips. Consider the horses trip in light of how the race shapes up and stop finding excuses for efforts that are not good enough.

Seems my Mets thread comment about you, twisted some undergarments cpb...

Nothing personal, you called a choke in the 2nd inning, you got called out.

Anyway, let's stick to the bolded words you stated....

Looking at the Met Mile, which quarters would you say were the most stressful/fastest?

I would say the 1st and 2nd. Where was HC in those quarters? Lounging around, as SRU would say, having a Pina Colada enjoying the view.

JV was too busy snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, hustling and wasting energy to make up many lengths in the q1, got the engine running so hot that he was on heels 4-5 wide in the awesome 2nd quarter.

Tonalist wasn't sucking up into the race flow, he wasn't taking advantage of that race's race flow. JV, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and wasted his energy reserves as PART of the race flow. Instead of doing that on or near the lead, he did it ever unimpressively in mid pack and wide for no reason.

arw629 · 10-16-2015, 09:57 PM

Smh
Honor Code isn't tactical ...he's a specialist who got just what he needed in those 2 races ...you can back your gimmicky Honor Code and I'll take a tactical and talented horse in this spot

EMD4ME · 10-16-2015, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arw629

I completely agree with you on Tonalist, but I don't know if I would blame the jockey...
Tonalist has been in the toughest Nyra races this yr and the Met mile and whitney both had insane paces making it difficult on riders to time rides from off the pace ...so maybe you're right he got a bad ride but the jockey is only human and those were some very tough spots to be put in....in the JCGC Tonalist was able to run his race bc the jockey and horse didn't have to worry about such a hot pace and decision making was a little easier ....i don't expect a super hot pace in the classic but something similar to the JCGC where Tonalist will be rewarded for being tactical and can get trip out and get the job done....if this makes no sense at all it's bc I'm sick and typing this on a crappy phone ....i might be bias bc I'm a big tonalist fan and believe he is very unlucky to not have more wins due to let's face it ..bad luck .....he's going to win the BCC

I appreciate your thoughts. I really do. I'll say this in response...

If Ramon Dominguez rode him in the Met, Suburban and Whitney, I venture to say he definately wins 2 of 3, more than likely 3 of 3.

Yes, I do blame the jockey. This is the major leagues and it's major league Grade 1 races. Yes, I expect Ramon Dominguez type rides on all mounts, especially in the big time races.

I refuse to lower my bar & although these trips cost him races in my opinion, they make him a better play going forward. (assuming and it's a HUGE assumption.....that he gets better rides).

arw629 · 10-16-2015, 10:02 PM

For the record...i bet honor code in the Met, Liam's Map in the Whitney, and hammered Tonalist in the JCGC.. l like tonalist in the bcc and you can't change my mind

EMD4ME · 10-16-2015, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arw629

For the record...i bet honor code in the Met, Liam's Map in the Whitney, and hammered Tonalist in the JCGC.. l like tonalist in the bcc and you can't change my mind

He has the ability to be tactical after the break, if the pace is slow, NEVER EVER gets tired and to me is the most tactical closer in the race. I'm with you.

I went to town in last year's Belmont and made a killing BUT....I have made sure it's not my heart that says I like him for the BCC. I have tested myself over and over and over to make sure it's my brain liking him and not my heart. I take pride in betting with my brain, not my heart and didn't want to be blinded. I am confident I am not seeing things with my heart and I'm with you arw629. Right now, he is my SOLE A in the BCC. Like him that much.

EMD4ME · 10-16-2015, 10:18 PM

Beholder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfGSFvWouBA

Zenyatta Stakes.....

Thoughts?

Pacific Classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_hNk8QHsJg

Thoughts?

cbp · 10-16-2015, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

[/B]

Seems my Mets thread comment about you, twisted some undergarments cpb...

Nothing personal, you called a choke in the 2nd inning, you got called out.

Anyway, let's stick to the bolded words you stated....

Looking at the Met Mile, which quarters would you say were the most stressful/fastest?

I would say the 1st and 2nd. Where was HC in those quarters? Lounging around, as SRU would say, having a Pina Colada enjoying the view.

JV was too busy snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, hustling and wasting energy to make up many lengths in the q1, got the engine running so hot that he was on heels 4-5 wide in the awesome 2nd quarter.

Tonalist wasn't sucking up into the race flow, he wasn't taking advantage of that race's race flow. JV, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and wasted his energy reserves as PART of the race flow. Instead of doing that on or near the lead, he did it ever unimpressively in mid pack and wide for no reason.

Didn't read your mets comments. Last attempt: your trip handicapping is at a very rudimentary level. It reminds me of the gibberish Fischer writes. My comments are about your take on the trips; not personally about you. You need a conceptual shift. But you lack the skill to see it through.
Tough place to be. Keep plugging away, it'll be a long time coming - if ever. Good luck

arw629 · 10-16-2015, 10:40 PM

The Zenyatta was a paid workout....her Pacific Classic was as visually impressive as anyone has been all yr....i question the competition in that race however ....i think some of the other bcc contenders would have also looked like a super horse had they been in the race...Beholder isn't battle tested like the others and I believe will be over bet in the bcc but that doesn't mean she can't win

Lemon Drop Husker · 10-16-2015, 11:01 PM

The only thing Tonalist has proven is that he can beat Wicked Strong. I don't think Wicked Strong will be in the field.

The only other thing Tonalist has proven is that he can be beat by Effinex.

Stillriledup · 10-16-2015, 11:11 PM

It's funny how Tonalist takes so much crap he's head and shoulders better than smooth roller, those horses aren't in the same galaxy yet nobody seems to have a problem with SR being in the field.

Anyone who's not sure can get back to video 101 and figure it out.

Lemon Drop Husker · 10-16-2015, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

It's funny how Tonalist takes so much crap he's head and shoulders better than smooth roller, those horses aren't in the same galaxy yet nobody seems to have a problem with SR being in the field.

Anyone who's not sure can get back to video 101 and figure it out.

Smooth Roller won a race that was an automatic entry into the BC Classic.

Why would anybody have a problem with him being in?

Stillriledup · 10-16-2015, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Smooth Roller won a race that was an automatic entry into the BC Classic.

Why would anybody have a problem with him being in?

Ricks natural star also got an 'automatic entry' by paying a fee, but people seemed to have a problem with him being there.