Good Ole D Wayne Lukas

[Mineshaft]

runs a Maiden in the Risen Star and I think he just crossed the finish line


freakin goofball

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

runs a Maiden in the Risen Star and I think he just crossed the finish line


freakin goofball

If it has 4 legs and a heartbeat - think KY Derby

[Ocala Mike]

His "impossible" looking Skyring nearly beat me out of my "nearly impossible" winner, Potomac River, in the race before.

[pele polo]

Yeah Lukas has no idea what he's doing. He won an Oaklwan 3yo Maiden today and yesterday and was 2nd in a graded stakes with a longshot. How many other trainers can say they accomplished as much in the last couple days. Of course that's all he's done. It's not like he's trained any champions or anything at least not lately.

[Stillriledup]

Lukas gets a pass because he's won a big race with a big price in the past. So, he can blowtorch 99 horses who are totally outclassed as long as one of the 100 comes home first. For Example, When you have a longshot like Oxbow in the Preakness, that's Oxbow, he's a proven quality horse, he's won big races before the Preakness and he had fast speed figures and fit in the race from a talent standpoint. Lukas hitting a bomb in a "big race" has nothing to do with a horse who "doesnt belong".

Isnt Lukas supposed to be one of the "Greatest trainers" to the point where he would know which bombs to give a shot with and which bombs to put in a different spot? If you lose by the length of the stretch without incident, you did a bad job spotting your horse, no way to sugarcoat it.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

runs a Maiden in the Risen Star and I think he just crossed the finish line


freakin goofball

Gotta be in it to win if. Lukas is a living legend, he's paid his dues. He can do what he wants.

[pele polo]

@Stillriledup

Go back watch and watch Vigorish's last race before the Risen Star and you'll see why Lukas gave him a shot in this stakes race. Also, the Winstsr horse that beat him is legit.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

Gotta be in it to win if. Lukas is a living legend, he's paid his dues. He can do what he wants.

If you owned the horse would you put the horse in the Risen Star coming off a 2nd place in a MSW at 22/1 odds?


I don't buy the "hes paid his dues" he can spot his horse where ever bullshit.

[therussmeister]

Maybe it was the owner who insisted on running in that spot.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Maybe it was the owner who insisted on running in that spot.

then hes a goofball too

[maclr11]

If you want to make the Derby field, you have to run in these races and see if you have the horse to contend. There's lots and lots of MSW races, there isn't a ton of Derby preps.

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

If you owned the horse would you put the horse in the Risen Star coming off a 2nd place in a MSW at 22/1 odds?


I don't buy the "hes paid his dues" he can spot his horse where ever bullshit.

Odds are determined by the public and they are not right 66% of the time.. or something close to that..

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by iceknight

Odds are determined by the public and they are not right 66% of the time.. or something close to that..

Answer my question...

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by iceknight

Odds are determined by the public and they are not right 66% of the time.. or something close to that..

That numbers around 60% nowadays. And that's a big difference.

I didn't play lots of tracks last year, but my 2013 data shows about 39% favs on the tracks I played.

Take out maiden races and it's even higher. But I only have about ten tracks in my database

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Mineshaft

runs a Maiden in the Risen Star and I think he just crossed the finish line


freakin goofball

I agree somewhat about the thought of entering the horse in the Risen Star, but on the other hand. There is only two 3yo races going long in the CB, run in the Risen Star as a paid work and then hope the Maiden race going long on March 9th is used and run back with a fitter horse. The logistics of finding 3yo races going long is a bit tricky,but getting a horses head jerked off is another thing entirely.
My old boss had a discussion with D Wayne one morning while watching their morning charges at Churchill. To put this in context, this was the early 80's after he won the Preakness with Codex and his stock was rising through the roof.
T-Red asked him his secret to winning the big races.
As they sat their, Lukas on his pony, D Wayne would randomly comment " See that horse, Mr Prospector baby". He would pause. " See that horse Seattle Slew baby". This went on as he went through all the top bloodlines.
Finally D Wayne stated and T-Red quotes " If they can't perform in the big races, I have 5 more just like them in the barn to take their place".
Some things never change, but D Wayne can get the big horse to perform.
The problem with this philosophy is it can create many casualties on the way.
In order to find the big horse many horses will be pushed to the breaking point to see if they can handle the pressure. Much as Lukas did yesterday with the maiden.