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Old 04-29-2009, 11:58 AM   #61
dartman51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toussaud
the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country? I like kurt Becker as much as the next guy but keeneland is not that important.

every bettor has 2-3 tracks they usually play on a daily basis. Keeneland is losing tht fight to be in the top 2-3
While I respect your opinion, and your views, my question to you is ,why not?? If you can learn SOMETHING that will help you put some of these big payoffs in your pocket, why not. And they do still run turf races there.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:02 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dartman51
While I respect your opinion, and your views, my question to you is ,why not?? If you can learn SOMETHING that will help you put some of these big payoffs in your pocket, why not. And they do still run turf races there.
Bec uase I don't gamble for the sake of it or for charity. I don't owe keeneland, santa anita, hollywood park or presque isle anything.


the whole point is to "compete" for your business, what keeneland/santa anita/hollywood par, is trying to do is to shame you into business..."well why can't you learn something new, you sould be open to new things"

No thanks, i"ll just continue playing what i know and what I like.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:39 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toussaud
the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country?
Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.
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Old 04-29-2009, 12:52 PM   #64
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I don't think the surface matters for 80% to 90% of Horseplayers.

I also don't know anyone who does it for a living that does better on synthetic surfaces!
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Old 04-29-2009, 02:39 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.

I am not really a bias person. not that I don't believe in them, but i figure that's too big a can of worms for me to factor in

No what I dispise the unhandicappable. Meaning, the horse that has been running at churchill/oaklawn for the last 2 years and has never seen a turf track and gets to keeneland and that turf sire 2 generatoins back in a horses pedigree jumps up and makes a horse that would not have a c hanbge look like a freak on polytrack. the stuff you can't handicap for.

I like dirt becuase dirt horses like dirt. turf hores like turf.

what i hate and will not handicap is horses that hop scotch from one sutract to another. I won't touch the illionis circut for this reason. horses coing off a 7 month layoff to win going away, horses coming off off the board months at hawthore to jup up and look like a grade 1 winner first out.
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Old 04-29-2009, 03:07 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.
What amazes me is how very few can see that racing on polycrap = jockey racing instead of horse racing.

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

I like betting on horses, not humans.
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Old 04-29-2009, 03:14 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.
I agree. Very good point. Some guys really know how to ride those tracks; and some don't.
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Old 04-29-2009, 03:16 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanT
I agree. Very good point. Some guys really know how to ride those tracks; and some don't.
Kinda like turf racing.
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Old 04-29-2009, 09:27 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW
What amazes me is how very few can see that racing on polycrap = jockey racing instead of horse racing.

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

I like betting on horses, not humans.
Totally agree.
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Old 04-29-2009, 09:34 PM   #70
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It seems like the jury is no longer out....

The consensus and evidence is quite overwhelming... Bettors prefer dirt and turf compared to rubber and carpet....

Good.. Im glad the majority of bettors sees it this way....


Now Mr. Phipps and Mr. Janney and legislators in Calimexico.....

Let's install more tracks with polytrack and really get rid of the remaining bettors...

We'll bribe the politicians to install slots at every track.... and we'll rule the world!!!!! Well, the racing world anyway.....
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Old 04-29-2009, 09:52 PM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangamble
http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...y+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.
Is anybody factoring in there was one less entire day of racing this year? Wouldn't that be a significant percentage of handle in a short meet like this? I'm no fan of the poly, but let's be fair.
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Old 04-29-2009, 09:55 PM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by affirmedny
Is anybody factoring in there was one less entire day of racing this year? Wouldn't that be a significant percentage of handle in a short meet like this? I'm no fan of the poly, but let's be fair.
sush
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Old 05-01-2009, 03:34 PM   #73
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the very first race at arlington proves my point. horse goes off at a deserved 33 to 1, hasn't been within 10 lengths in the last 4 and wires the damn field on the track. the unhadicappable.
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