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Old 05-21-2020, 04:55 PM   #1
Blenheim
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Nadal Fires Belmont Bullet . . .

https://www.xbtv.com/video/wcwork/na...may-20th-2020/

Nice work, easy gallop out . . . stretchin' his legs while firin' a Belmont bound bullet .
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:49 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by Blenheim View Post
https://www.xbtv.com/video/wcwork/na...may-20th-2020/

Nice work, easy gallop out . . . stretchin' his legs while firin' a Belmont bound bullet .

he looks like a horse that will chase charlatan around the track and never catch him at 9f but will blow past him in the 10f derby. my guess is charlatan beats him here and then charlatan goes to the haskell and wins easily and tiz the law and nadal fight it out in the travers. that is if they go 10f in the travers.
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Old 05-24-2020, 10:38 PM   #3
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This horse has 5 gears
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:21 AM   #4
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no Authentic for the Belmont??
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Old 05-26-2020, 11:13 AM   #5
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no Authentic for the Belmont??
Santa Anita Derby
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:21 PM   #6
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Santa Anita Derby
Typically Baffert at least tries to keep his best horse for the SA Derby, but in this case given that the Belmont is the more important race, I'd have to think he believes Authentic is weaker than Nadal and Charlatan since he'd be skipping any shot at a Triple Crown with Authentic by passing the Belmont.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:48 PM   #7
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no Authentic for the Belmont??
Santa Anita Derby, so highly unlikely.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:49 PM   #8
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Typically Baffert at least tries to keep his best horse for the SA Derby, but in this case given that the Belmont is the more important race, I'd have to think he believes Authentic is weaker than Nadal and Charlatan since he'd be skipping any shot at a Triple Crown with Authentic by passing the Belmont.
American Pharoah might disagree. Dortmund ran in the SA Derby, Pharoah at Oaklawn.
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Old 05-26-2020, 04:01 PM   #9
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American Pharoah might disagree. Dortmund ran in the SA Derby, Pharoah at Oaklawn.
I remembered that one, but I couldn't remember the details. I think Pharoah's 3yo debut was delayed a little and he was behind schedule. Baffert wanted an extra week between starts. So Dortmund went into the SA Derby on schedule and Pharoah waited an extra week for the Arkansas Derby. Lot of good it did me. I played Dortmund in the Derby.
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Old 05-26-2020, 04:17 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Typically Baffert at least tries to keep his best horse for the SA Derby, but in this case given that the Belmont is the more important race, I'd have to think he believes Authentic is weaker than Nadal and Charlatan since he'd be skipping any shot at a Triple Crown with Authentic by passing the Belmont.
Authentic had been pencilled in for the SA Derby right before racing was shutdown at Santa Anita. This was only 2 weeks before the SA Derby and there was even hope at that point that they could reopen on SA Derby day. Once the original race date passed, Baffert said he would back off on Authentic during the hiatus and keep the other 2 going forward for the Arkansas races. Maybe in that regard, Authentic had some physical issues to resolve, but at this stage I don't think it's a matter of Authentic being the lesser of the 3.

It wouldn't make sense to leave all that money at SA on the table with a top horse that was pointing to the race all along.
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Old 05-26-2020, 04:46 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Typically Baffert at least tries to keep his best horse for the SA Derby, but in this case given that the Belmont is the more important race, I'd have to think he believes Authentic is weaker than Nadal and Charlatan since he'd be skipping any shot at a Triple Crown with Authentic by passing the Belmont.
At this stage I donít think Authentic is ready to face a field as strong as Belmont, Baffert looks to taking it easy with the horse.
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Old 05-26-2020, 05:12 PM   #12
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Nadal seemingly has superior distance breeding than Authentic who might be best at 8.5F... but plenty capable of beating what's likely to be a shorter 9F field at Santa Anita.

Note: The Louisville-Courier Journal reported Tuesday that trainer Bob Baffert had two horses test positive “for banned substances” during the Oaklawn meet, according to an unnamed source. The source did not identify the two horses specifically that said one of them was either Charlatan or Nadal, both of whom accumulated points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby on the May 2 card.

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Old 05-26-2020, 05:23 PM   #13
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It wouldn't make sense to leave all that money at SA on the table with a top horse that was pointing to the race all along.
I certainly agree with not leaving money on the table, but imo the prestige of winning this year's Belmont will be greater than winning the SA Derby. The Belmont has almost become the Derby this year. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I'd be taking my 2 best horses to Belmont. Personally, I think Nadal is one of them. He's the most tested.
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Old 05-26-2020, 05:34 PM   #14
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well Baffert has an embarrassment of riches with 3 year olds - even more than usual. but it's an odd year. there won't be any skipping the Preakness to freshen up for the Belmont after losing the Derby. there will be plenty of time to regroup and refresh for the next jewel. i think i would fire every bullet i had for each jewel.
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Old 05-26-2020, 07:34 PM   #15
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I certainly agree with not leaving money on the table, but imo the prestige of winning this year's Belmont will be greater than winning the SA Derby. The Belmont has almost become the Derby this year. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I'd be taking my 2 best horses to Belmont. Personally, I think Nadal is one of them. He's the most tested.
I think it's questionable whether Baffert is viewing this year's special Belmont Stakes as a classic race as opposed to something like a major Derby prep. I don't think he's viewing it as targeted goal on the calendar for 2 reasons: (1) it wasn't even on the calendar definitively until a week and a half ago, and (2) Baffert usually isn't interested in the Belmont Stakes even in a normal year (unless he has a TC candidate). Note, Nadal and Charlatan would not be in the Belmont Stakes this year if it was still 12 furlongs (Baffert stated this about a month ago). And if there is another major race in late June for 3yos with a big purse, I wouldn't be surprised if he called an audible and rerouted one of his Belmont entries.

Beyond all that, Baffert--like many super trainers and their owners-- is not a competitor that is interested in finding out which of his horses is the best on the racetrack. They are more about crafting stallion resumes, diluting the major races by keeping their stable stars apart so that each horse has the opportunity to maximize its potential for a stud deal (and the obligatory annual breeding rights).

Authentic needs to secure the SA Derby to have all his ducks in a row for retirement. If he does, he'll be a nominal Grade 1 winner with the trump card of being by the current top sire Into Mischief. It won't really matter if he loses after that (unless there is a clause in the syndication contract that bumps up the $$$ based on additional Grade 1 wins or something).
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