Who bet this horse? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Light · 03-12-2023, 08:27 PM

Last race today at TuP, when the gates opened the favorite went down from 4/5 to 1/9. My guess is they didn't want to tip their hand before the gates opened. But they already lowered their own return betting that much.

I estimated someone bet at least $50K to win on the horse, Full of Grace. Because the horse ended up with $$73K to win on it and the most any other horse had on the card was $15K.

Finished off the board. The trainer's stat for "2nd start with trainer" was a lowly 7% from 41 starters. Pretty low odds to take when betting $50K.

Bustin Stones · 03-12-2023, 08:51 PM

In my 20's I worked with an older gent in our engineering dept. We would make a day of it at the races on Saturdays. He would bet enough on each race to win $50 no matter the odds. And when he lost, he'd increase the next bet to recoup and make up for the lost opportunity. Things ran well enough for awhile so that he bought a new luxury car.
Then, he hit a losing streak and found himself having to take tens of thousands of dollars to the window. It wasn't that he knew so much about horses, though he was a capable handicapper, he didn't have the math background to see where it was headed. Sometimes an oversized bet isn't a whale or a trainer, it's a misguided handicapper.

Light · 03-13-2023, 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Sometimes an oversized bet isn't a whale or a trainer, it's a misguided handicapper.

What's unique about this wager is that by betting that much to win, this bettor is only going to get the same amount as betting to show. $2.10.

So why this person didn't bet the horse to show is what perplexes me, no matter the outcome or if it was a good or bad bet.

SG4 · 03-13-2023, 12:42 AM

Add 2 new items to the things I've never seen before category this weekend, first was a minus win pool on a first time starter at Santa Anita on Saturday (OK so that was a 2 horse race, but still). Second was whatever happened in the last at Turf Paradise today. That horse went off 1/20 in a 9 horse field, and she wasn't even the favorite on the ML. Also here were the conditions, don't know if you can card a worse sounding race:

"FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT THE 2022-2023 TURF PARADISE MEET FOR $4,000 OR LESS AND HAVE NOT FINISHED 1ST, 2ND OR 3RD AT THE MEET..."

Good luck to whoever wants to jump into their pick 5 carryover pool on Monday.

Bustin Stones · 03-13-2023, 07:36 AM

When the racing secretary has to write conditions this restrictive to accommodate the stock in the barns, it's time to start handing out participation trophies.

rastajenk · 03-13-2023, 08:18 AM

I wonder what the 'Beyer Par' is for that condition.

davew · 03-13-2023, 10:22 AM

I wonder if it was a computer program that went rouge?

castaway01 · 03-13-2023, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davew

I wonder if it was a computer program that went rouge?

Bet the programmer's face was red after that one.

groupie doll · 03-13-2023, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

Bet the programmer's face was red after that one.

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 03-13-2023, 04:36 PM

I remember years ago on the NYRA circuit there used to be a bettor they called "The Mad Bomber" who used to make $30,000 win bets and though i have no records he rarely if ever won a bet.

This type of apparently uninformed wagers can really boost the odds on the other figure horses in the race. I still say (IMO), a wager with that amount would be best distributed in the exacta pools.

the little guy · 03-13-2023, 06:25 PM

He didn't just bet at NYRA.

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 03-13-2023, 06:33 PM

Thanks Andy. Do you recall if he ever had a winner?

the little guy · 03-13-2023, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Thanks Andy. Do you recall if he ever had a winner?

I would assume he did. Doesn't everyone? He was betting fairly frequently at Gulfstream at least one winter when I was there in the mid 90s.

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 03-13-2023, 06:39 PM

This great game gives us, the players a lifetime of memories. The mad bomber is just one of many.

SG4 · 03-13-2023, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Thanks Andy. Do you recall if he ever had a winner?

If I remember correctly I think their M.O. was to bet favorites but they would get knocked down to stupidly low prices. Felt like their wager was often the kiss of death, but I'm pretty sure some got the job done.