Things no one tells you

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

You think it is wise with advantage gambling thriving, racing has zero interest in appealing to advantage gamblers?

Go into some detail about racing and an advantage gambler...Need some context to see your point.

[Light]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Then I'll always be ahead of you....Thanks for being lazy..

I wasn't promoting laziness. Watching replays and horse appearance works both ways.

My absolute worst day in horse racing was watching a replay that made me throw out 1 horse on my Pk6 ticket which cost me $50K, cause I would have been the only one.

I made $2k that day but was super pissed, yelling out loud at myself in the tracks parking lot for watching that phucking replay. I was much smarter NOT watching it and relying on OTHER information.

And I've seen horses with sweat down to their ankles or blood coming out of their mouths win like champions. Yes I still would not bet horses like that, but there are no absolutes in this game.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Go into some detail about racing and an advantage gambler...Need some context to see your point.

Anybody that gambles in beatable games. Sports betting, fantasy sports, Poker, counting cards in blackjack if they can get the right rules and are willing to put forth the effort. Any game where it is areasonable expectation (not easy, but a reasonable expectation) that if you put forth the effort you can achieve a profit. Some will never get there. Some hover around break even. Some will make a modest profit. Others will really take to the game and win and grow bankroll and win some and grow bankroll some more.......Why would anybody who cannot get substantial rebates not pursue any of these these other games at a fraction of the take over horse racing.

I am no poker star. But I play micro stakes online poker at WSOP all the time. If I play 10/20 cent or less I can play forever. Haven't got to the point that I win anything significant, but I certainly not going to have to reload my account at that level. When I stepped up to 25 cent/50 cent (maybe I ran bad, more likely I was outplayed at the higher level), I went south. At that level I was losing. So now i am back down to a level I can play at whenever I want with little risk. If I start to build a bankroll I will try the 25/50 cent level down the line somewhere. If I want to play live poker, I play limit 3/6 (I figure I need to get a little better before I start playing 1/2 no limit).. Sometimes I win sometimes I lose. I am not going to get hurt. The point is that I can gamble recreationally anytime I want. I don't have to lose at a -15% rate or -20% rate or -25% rate. Every time I play I am contributing to the rake of the house. Sport betting, I bet NBA Basketball, much the same. Over the long run I am not going to lose. Will I win significantly (remains to be seen). If racing put up the takeout that I suggest, I believe my results will be much the same in racing as well. I can hold my own thoroughbreds, harness, doesn't matter. When you rebate the sharpest players around and charge a ridiculous takeout, this becomes a very tough game. Thus I opt for spending the majority of my time betting sports and playing poker. I would much rather be betting horses. I love betting horses. I love handicapping horses.

Bottom line is there are players that take these games a lot more serious than I do. There are going to be folks that are more proficient at all these games than I am. Those are the ones that become advantage gamblers. But even at my level, I support the games that give me a fair shake. Even people that do worse than I do, will likely support the games, either for recreation or because they are striving to one day become advantage gamblers. The point that if the takeout is fair the gambler has an eye on the ultimate prize (beating the game one day). When it becomes increasingly obvious after every week of playing the game that the task is ridiculously tough and the game becomes very expensive in terms of roi, the gambler will look for a game that they feel they have a chance to beat. Even those that don't have enough proficiency to beat any game are going to spend their energy on games that give them a lot more bang for the buck. Even the old ladies feeding the slot machines are only losing about 8%.

Every person that gambles is a potential customer for racing. But every person that gambles has a lot of choices these days. When racing was the only game in town, they were able to charge a huge take out and get away with it. But even then there were no rebates creating such a huge imbalance and making it virtually impossible for most to have any chance to win. Moreover the expected roi for the masses is so bad that they will soon find a much better alternative in the gambling world.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Light

I wasn't promoting laziness. Watching replays and horse appearance works both ways.

My absolute worst day in horse racing was watching a replay that made me throw out 1 horse on my Pk6 ticket which cost me $50K, cause I would have been the only one.

I made $2k that day but was super pissed, yelling out loud at myself in the tracks parking lot for watching that phucking replay. I was much smarter NOT watching it and relying on OTHER information.

And I've seen horses with sweat down to their ankles or blood coming out of their mouths win like champions. Yes I still would not bet horses like that, but there are no absolutes in this game.

All my live scores have been by watching replays, playing horizontals and using contrarian methodologies in my ticket structures using grids...I have no bad beat stories to tell...there are no such things. Those who tell their supposed beat stories simply can't handle the game, end of story.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by usfgeology

I think poker has fundamental rules. Pot odds vs real odds. Position. Etc. If you understand statistics and can do some fairly simple math on the fly, poker tends to resort to the statistical mean. Thus, a patient and reasonably intelligent observer can ultimately achieve routine success. Horse playing however involves both the left and right side of the brain. Creativity, insight, and boldness must be complemented by a strong analytics based opinion, or visa-versa. Both involve ups and downs but losing streaks for the horseplayer may not be undone by resorting to fundamental principals nearly as linearly as for the poker player. Thus a more resilient psychological fortitude must be employed by the horse player.

As well as your opinion is phrased here ...I must disagree with it. I don't know if your poker experience is practical or just theoretical...but here is what my poker involvement has taught me:

Since "big-bet poker" (no limit, pot limit) is the type of poker that is currently being spread throughout the country, we can't rightly compare the downturns of poker with those experienced by the horseplayer. When a poker player suffers a stroke of misfortune in a NL poker game, he often loses his whole stack...which is a more psychologically damaging experience than when a horseplayer loses a more measured bet. I often go from being a sizeable winner in a poker game to being a sizeable loser, all as a result of a single hand...an indignity that I have never suffered in all my years of betting horses. The losses in horseracing are more manageable...and psychologically easier to bear, IMO.

Another thing. Horseracing allows us to start with a very small bankroll and tiny bets...whereby we can slowly fortify our psychological makeup by building our skill and our discipline on the cheap, while keeping tuition costs to a minimum. But when a poker player walks into a poker room, the smallest NL holdem game that he will find will be the 1/2 game. And when he sits down in that game, it's a virtual certainty that in his very first game he will encounter a situation where he will be asked to risk over $100 on a single flip of a card. There are "serious" horseplayers out there who haven't bet over $50 on a race in their entire LIVES.

With the online game dead in this country, poker doesn't allow us to start with a very small bankroll and tiny bets...our tuition costs in the game can't be kept to a minimum...and the psychological strain begins much sooner for the poker player than it does for the horseplayer. Consequently...I feel that it's the poker player who must employ the "more resilient psychological fortitude".

[romankoz]

Originally Posted by AndyC

In my view, one of the biggest hurdles for success is psychological. The ability to handle the inevitable losing streaks without letting emotions interfere with decision making.

I am in agreement with Andy C re the handling of losing runs and I would add the periods where you just seem to tread water neither winning or losing any units of note. With both you need to be totally in focus of the big picture (12 months betting) and what your normal 12 months normally shows profit wise. From there you MUST over ride your emotions and stick to a belief you will win and accordingly keep your decision making as consistent as it was during winning times.
Of course, there is the reverse with a top run of winners and the emotion of egotism taking over if you are not careful to stick to your personal proven maxims.

At present I am having a run of zig and zag where I so close but I am so far away from my target that all I can do is remain emotionless, stick to my rules and wait for the time when I actually strike more than one winner in a row.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

As well as your opinion is phrased here ...I must disagree with it. I don't know if your poker experience is practical or just theoretical...but here is what my poker involvement has taught me:

Since "big-bet poker" (no limit, pot limit) is the type of poker that is currently being spread throughout the country, we can't rightly compare the downturns of poker with those experienced by the horseplayer. When a poker player suffers a stroke of misfortune in a NL poker game, he often loses his whole stack...which is a more psychologically damaging experience than when a horseplayer loses a more measured bet. I often go from being a sizeable winner in a poker game to being a sizeable loser, all as a result of a single hand...an indignity that I have never suffered in all my years of betting horses. The losses in horseracing are more manageable...and psychologically easier to bear, IMO.

Another thing. Horseracing allows us to start with a very small bankroll and tiny bets...whereby we can slowly fortify our psychological makeup by building our skill and our discipline on the cheap, while keeping tuition costs to a minimum. But when a poker player walks into a poker room, the smallest NL holdem game that he will find will be the 1/2 game. And when he sits down in that game, it's a virtual certainty that in his very first game he will encounter a situation where he will be asked to risk over $100 on a single flip of a card. There are "serious" horseplayers out there who haven't bet over $50 on a race in their entire LIVES.

With the online game dead in this country, poker doesn't allow us to start with a very small bankroll and tiny bets...our tuition costs in the game can't be kept to a minimum...and the psychological strain begins much sooner for the poker player than it does for the horseplayer. Consequently...I feel that it's the poker player who must employ the "more resilient psychological fortitude".

This was a great post. In my opinion it points out why horseracing is still the best gambling game. In horseracing you are playing against the public,which may or may not have better opinions than you. In poker,you will probably end up playing against players who are better than you,especially in the beginning of your education.

[Robert Fischer]

The activity and quality in this thread is great.
Everyone at Paceadvantage has their own style.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Trouble doesn't mean it will make a positive run next out...but it does mean you can IGNORE that effort and look for a more representative one.

Exactly. For me, the most valuable trouble occurs when we are dealing with unknown form.

Maybe it's a maiden with a couple lifetime starts?

Maybe the trouble occurred first off the claim for a move-up trainer?

Connesecutive trouble happens on occasion and 2 ugly races in a row, are better than 1, if the trouble is legitimate. If the trouble basically put the horse into his projected race, or if the trouble simply allowed him to make a strong last-move, it's not legitimate.

I have 6 types of watch-list. One of them is similar to that idea of ugly/unknown form.

I don't focus on trouble when watching races. Watch a lot of races (12tracks up-to-date '23).

What I do, is start from areas that I have occasional edges in, and work backwards.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Still working at the grocery store?....Of course you are, while I bet the horses full time...Fact.

and probably the best horse player outside of the CAW alive today.

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

You miss the only vital point. Eliminating rebates and pricing this game properly will make the sport thrive not hang on life support feeding off of other forms of gambling and other government charity. So your perception is thank Goodness we have little old lady playing slot machines so that crumbs can trickle down the the racing industry. My perception is fix the game so that the racing industry is self supporting. Then maybe the old lady playing slot machines might make her way over to the track and play the horses instead and whether she does or not there will be plenty of crossover advantage gamblers that will.

You seriously think it is a good thing that this game survives off of a couple dozen teams at the expense of everyone else playing it (if they haven't already quit). You think it is wise with advantage gambling thriving, racing has zero interest in appealing to advantage gamblers?

Perhaps you had not considered that no activity can survive by serving its serious followers. It was the casual followers that filled the aprons back when it did not require subsidies to finance racing.
These casual followers have no problem buying lottery tickets where the takeout is 50%. Dealing with rebates and takeouts may solve your issues, but they won't save horse racing. A casual fan won't sit at a monitor to watch an event. They can do that at home. They come out to relax and watch a live race. But, they will no longer patiently wait 25 minutes to see the next race if it's a run of the mill, non event race. They'll decide in the first 10 minutes who they like and be ready to go. They come to be entertained. If we can solve that one, we can save horse racing.
I do not wish to minimize your takeout concerns, but defending those by claiming it can save racing seems self serving.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

... I feel that it's the poker player who must employ the "more resilient psychological fortitude".

Thaskalos, I agree with you ( as much as someone who couldn't even tell you the rules of Poker, can agree ).
On the surface/from a distance, 'big-bet' Poker seems more similar to Horse Racing Tournaments, than it does to parimutuel wagering. Do you feel that has any truth to it?

More generally, While I don't regard psychology as necessarily 'the most important', and certainly not the only important part of the puzzle, I am of the opinion that it's important to respect and understand how psychology plays a great role in any gambling game.

and

Originally Posted by aaron

... horseracing is still the best gambling game. ...

Yes it is, Aaron

The first sophistication is to get beyond the superficial psychological traps - Over-excitement of the moment, greed/fear, chasing losses/replenishing bankroll from ATM or money originally designated for other purposes, basic fallacies etc.. etc...

Once you get past that you can look down upon the idiots who are affected by psychology because you've conquered it and can now use the track as your own personal ATM.

Obviously kidding. Kahneman has a popular, and interesting book on a big part of the remaining psychological battles, that horseplayers face.

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-21-2023 at 11:38 AM.

[classhandicapper]

I think the biggest obstacle to winning for most people is that they want action and can't separate their best value oriented opinions from all the rest. I have an opinion in every race too, but I know from experience when it's more likely I have a profitable opinion vs just an ordinary opinion of no betting value.

IMO, many people fritter away the value from their best opinions with bad bets.

Getting past that stage involves being equally comfortable betting large sums as you are with small sums and coping with the losing streaks so your judgement is not impaired.

One of the more unique psychological hurdles for me personally is that I have put so much work into this over the decades, losing would be a huge blow to my ego and make me feel like I wasted a lot of time that could have been put to better use. That makes me play very tight trying to ensure a profit over the long haul rather than trying to maximize my profit.

Another hurdle for me is that the game changes. Where the value is located changes with it. So when I am going bad, I get rattled. It's not about the money. It's that I start wondering if the game is changing and I missed something. So again, I start tightening up.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the worst beats for horseplayers are not related to bet size. You can control how much you lose. The worse beats are the huge multi race payoffs you missed by a head bob, DQ, terrible ride, or because you left off a horse you originally planned to use. When you are that close to a score that could change your life or at least lead to one hell of good time for quite awhile, that can be pretty rough even if you lost a smaller amount of money than blowing your stack at poker.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, the worst beats for horseplayers are not related to bet size. You can control how much you lose. The worse beats are the huge multi race payoffs you missed by a head bob, DQ, terrible ride, or because you left off a horse you originally planned to use. When you are that close to a score that could change your life or at least lead to one hell of good time for quite awhile, that can be pretty rough even if you lost a smaller amount of money than blowing your stack at poker.

We were talking about losing streaks...not bad beats. Like ReplayRandall said in a prior post, the bad beats don't really exist, and our complaining about them means that we need more "seasoning" in the game. I bet the on the roulette wheel and the little white ball falls a hair short of the target and lands on the neighboring . Did I just suffer a "bad beat"? Or the little old lady at the slot machine who needed that last reel to stop spinning just a half-inch further, so she could win the life-changing mega jackpot.

The mature gamblers don't tell bad beat stories, and won't even listen about them...and they are right.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

We were talking about losing streaks...not bad beats. Like ReplayRandall said in a prior post, the bad beats don't really exist, and our complaining about them means that we need more "seasoning" in the game. I bet the on the roulette wheel and the little white ball falls a hair short of the target and lands on the neighboring . Did I just suffer a "bad beat"? Or the little old lady at the slot machine who needed that last reel to stop spinning just a half-inch further, so she could win the life-changing mega jackpot.

The mature gamblers don't tell bad beat stories, and won't even listen about them...and they are right.

I'm not a poker player, but a young neighbor of mine knew I bet horses and asked me about going pro in poker. He was full of bad beat stories. I told him if he thinks they are truly bad beats, gambling isn't for him.