Who has the best program or method for the turf

[John]

Here they come. 4 races on the Turf at Belmont for wednesday . Now that the country is rain free almost all tracks are running 4 or 5 Turf races a card.

Sad, these races are sandwich between most pick - 3 and always in the late DD.

I need some help in the turf area or I go fishing for the summer.

Steve Wolson " Speed Scan " said, look at the horses last three turf races regardlees of when or where and bet the horse that has the highest Turf Beyer, Briss,Tsn Or whatever number of the three.

It works [ Somtime ]

[so.cal.fan]

James Quinn suggests betting the horse who has the fastest last fraction, provided it is in the same class running or BETTER.
I tend to go along with this.
Additionally, I usually demand a trainer is a TURF trainer.......15% or better with turf runners and the same with the jockey.
The Beyer method is good too, provided it was acheived at a
standard distance and a comparable class, preferably a higher class.
I really prefer foreign breds at 1 1/8 or longer.
Of course if you are betting Saratoga........don't leave a Frankel turfer off your ticket.

[Fastracehorse]

And the first leg was turf ( $50 + )

2nd leg was a $19 horse.

Got the p-3 too but it paid less than the double.

fffastt

[Big Bill]

If you have the book, Handicapping Magic, you will see where Michael provides a method for selecting horses in turf races. It is toward the back of the book.

Big Bill

[cj]

Basing turf picks on only the last fraction without regard to the pace of the race is not a good idea. I did much experimenting with it, and it just doesn't work. After much tinkering, I've come up with a few ideas that really seem to work. I've went from ignoring turf races to looking forward to them.

I'll sum up what I do real quick and anyone has questions, fire away. First off, for dirt, I use the Quirin method, combining the pace figure with the speed figure. I still do that for turf, but it is only the first rating. The second rating is more inclined to late speed. Here is an example...

Say a horse ran a 70-80 pace speed combo. His pace rating would be (70+80) / 2 = 75. I calculate the late portion of the rating as follows:

(80*3) - (70*2) = 100

I then average that 100 with the pace rating, 70 in this case, for the late speed rating. (100 + 70) / 2 = 85.

So in this case, the horse would rate 75-85 for the race. I only look at the higher of the two, so this horse would be an 85.

One other example...

Horse runs 90-80, so his 1st rating is 85. The second rating would be:

(80*3) - ( 90*2) = 60

(60+90) / 2 = 75.

His rating is now 85-75, so I would take the 85 as well. I have found the best turf horses show the best turn of foot over shorter distances, and this seems to point them out. You won't find many standouts using this type of method, but you will find legitimate contenders at some very nice prices.

[Shacopate]

When comparing foreign shippers making their first U.S. start, subtract 14 points from the timeform rating to see how it compares "Beyer-wise."

Pizzola's turf method is to open the form cycle window all the way and use the horse with the highest PPF.

With a little research you can benefit by knowing how the course plays when the rails are out.

[cj]

Originally posted by Big Bill
If you have the book, Handicapping Magic, you will see where Michael provides a method for selecting horses in turf races. It is toward the back of the book.

Big Bill

His method sounds great on paper, but in reality it just didn't pan out. Too many turf horses "explode" home after very slow paces. Look at the following:

1 mile races

Horse A-Pace call 1:14 1:36 lengths behind are 2 and 4, so the horse's PPF would be 96.4 - 74.2 = 22.2

Horse B-Pace call 1:12 1:35 wire to wire winner, so the horse's PPF would be 23.0

Same race card, same track. Is there any way horse A is better than horse B? Not very likely.

I know Pizzola says not to use atypical races, but in ten turf races in any horse's record, it is not unlikely to find 2 turf races like horse A ran.

[Fastracehorse]

And a liitle knowledge of how the turf course is playing.

Oh yah, and a little dash of trainer intent.

fffastt

[Valuist]

I think Beyer's dirt numbers are more reliable than their turf speed figures. Thorograph's grass numbers are better because they incorporate ground loss into the equation. Its never good to race wide on the turns on the turf.

[Fastracehorse]

It's the contrary IMO Valuist about Beyer #'s.

You are right about being wide on the lawn - very bad thing - it's very difficult to manufacture a good trip on the grass - ground loss for turf races isn't as important for dirt races.

If you get a bad trip on the lawn you won't win - it's as simple as that - it's easier to overcome problems on the dirt and these problems are more useful when manifested in speed figs.

fffastt

[John]

Thanks Guys. So far so good.

I like So. Cal on James Quinn. It makes sense the fastest last fraction.It seems to me that nobody wants the lead and no horse starts to run untill the top of he stretch.


Cj, formula seems to be a good gage to spot the contenders.

Big bill. I don't know anything about Handicapping Magic.Maybe you can explain his method. Although CJ, does not think much of it.

Shacopate, foreign shippers making their first U.S. start, That's a good angle.


Good infomation so far.

[cj]

Originally posted by Valuist
I think Beyer's dirt numbers are more reliable than their turf speed figures. Thorograph's grass numbers are better because they incorporate ground loss into the equation. Its never good to race wide on the turns on the turf.

First turn, no doubt, a very valuable piece of info. But if you are talking the second turn, I'd have to disagree. Many turf winners swing wide on the second turn to use their closing kick without having to break momentum.

[kenwoodall]

Yeh! Bet numbers! On the turf I bet the horse on the longest winning streak no matter what it won! Then I bet the fav to show!!

[Amazin]

There is a lack of distinction here.IMO here are two types of turf horses.Horses with Turf experiences and horses with none.You can't have numbers on horses with no experience because dirt horses rarely translate their form to Turf unless they have some Turf Breeding.Same is true with Maidens.Two types.Those with experience and those without.Can't mix em.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by kenwoodall
Yeh! Bet numbers! On the turf I bet the horse on the longest winning streak no matter what it won! Then I bet the fav to show!!

Would you deposit some money in the Woodbine pool, please?