Divide by Seven

[Capper Al]

One of the most interesting post made in the forum was about changing our methods/formula over the course of the year. This holds up with my experience also. For me, I hit my best long shots between January and early March. It has been touted that the favorites' win percent goes up through the end of summer. Could this be because speed as an indicator is more reliable as the year progresses with trainers finding their horses best race condition niche? I believe so, but haven't tested it. What do you think?

[lamboguy]

not that i have been paying that much attention to this, but i always recalled favorites winning at a higher rate towards the end of any meet. i always thought the reason for this is that many horses get knocked out by the better ones and that bettors know the horses a whole bunch more after they have had multiple starts. this might not hold true these days because people think nothing about shipping their horses around to find easier spots.

[Robert Goren]

Weather has lot do with it. I believe changing track biases has a lot to do with the number of longshots.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

One of the most interesting post made in the forum was about changing our methods/formula over the course of the year. This holds up with my experience also. For me, I hit my best long shots between January and early March. It has been touted that the favorites' win percent goes up through the end of summer. Could this be because speed as an indicator is more reliable as the year progresses with trainers finding their horses best race condition niche? I believe so, but haven't tested it. What do you think?

What I think is I would test if the premise is even true. It isn't hard to figure out if favorites win more in the summer. Run a query.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

What I think is I would test if the premise is even true. It isn't hard to figure out if favorites win more in the summer. Run a query.

I'm not there yet. Just started my database for measuring my results. Don't have a set up for general past performances and results.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

not that i have been paying that much attention to this, but i always recalled favorites winning at a higher rate towards the end of any meet. i always thought the reason for this is that many horses get knocked out by the better ones and that bettors know the horses a whole bunch more after they have had multiple starts. this might not hold true these days because people think nothing about shipping their horses around to find easier spots.

Quinn mention this phenomena in one of his books where favorites win more at the end of summer.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Could this be because speed as an indicator is more reliable as the year progresses with trainers finding their horses best race condition niche? I believe so, but haven't tested it. What do you think?

There's a seasonality for breeding and getting your horse ready. I focus more on who owns the horse and whether they've got the money to get a 2 year old ready in the fall. Or breaking a 3 year old maiden after 1 January. And once they break the maiden can they win again by March.

I'm suspicious of horses showing up in the summer. Historically this is when the problem horses went to the fairs. This is when the pallet trainers and c level jockeys show up at Pomona. My betting becomes slim in the summer. Infrequently a owner will ship into bullring or a summer meet. I'll bet several hundred horses in Cal during the fall-spring. But my summer betting is limited to a dozen large. These are generally high end owners looking for a spot. Or a trainer sneaking something into places such as Grants Pass. I avoid Delmar unless someone out of a barn gives me a horse.

The only time I would consider a speed ratings is in the fall. I look at the 2 year olds, usually fillies, heading to the BC.

[magwell]

Two yr olds in the summer like Saratoga and other major tracks fav. win a very high % ......

[Magister Ludi]

This is my theory. The volume of money bet by the tiny minority of people who bet on overlays is relatively constant throughout the year. The volume of money bet by the vast majority of people who try to pick winners fluctuates in accordance with the day of the week, race number on the racecard, and many other factors. This fluctuation of the average handle causes many types of track-dependant cyclicity and seasonality.

For example, if you were able to bet on the favorite at every track in the race on each racecard with the highest straight pool handle, you would most likely have a win percentage of approximately 50% and an ROI >0. It makes sense that average betting handle with the attendant increase in favorites’ win percentage would increase through the end of summer because people are generally more active when the weather is better and would be more inclined to go to the track or their local OTB center than during the winter.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Weather has lot do with it. I believe changing track biases has a lot to do with the number of longshots.

Nicer weather all around the country surely helps.

[OCF]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

This is my theory. The volume of money bet by the tiny minority of people who bet on overlays is relatively constant throughout the year. The volume of money bet by the vast majority of people who try to pick winners fluctuates in accordance with the day of the week, race number on the racecard, and many other factors. This fluctuation of the average handle causes many types of track-dependant cyclicity and seasonality.

For example, if you were able to bet on the favorite at every track in the race on each racecard with the highest straight pool handle, you would most likely have a win percentage of approximately 50% and an ROI >0. It makes sense that average betting handle with the attendant increase in favorites’ win percentage would increase through the end of summer because people are generally more active when the weather is better and would be more inclined to go to the track or their local OTB center than during the winter.

Just the use of the word "cyclicity" is enough to make this post intriguing to me.

Seriously, I would like to understand and learn from this post but I'm having a hard time following it. Specifically, there seems to be a premise that the larger the pool, the higher the favorite win percentage? Do I have that right, and if so, what would be the generally accepted explanation(s)?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Do you think it has something to do with just your own comfort zone Al?Tucked behind a desk in the middle of winter is an idyllic situation to bet the races.The entirety of being absorbs the whole of it.In mid summer when there is always a flurry of activity and the search for a body of water is imminent,I know I get a little less stimulated with the races,sitting in a 100 degree clubhouse in July!

If it's not that,I think the reliability of speed figures is probably higher in the middle of the year because everybody is usually in shape.It starts to tail again towards the end of the year up north and east when trainers are literally playing out the string.

Losing streaks IMO sometimes have their roots in your personal life but any player with a history,and yours is longer than mine,knows that it's usually just randomness.Last year from January til the end of February I was in a funk.I kept a notebook next to me and wrote down every thought,bet,observation,and meaningless thought down to look back at and get inside my own head.In the end it was partial refusal to bet on horses in the 2-1,3-1 range,but it was generally randomness.The handicapping was solid.Trying to see what's not there was not a factor.The smarter the person the more inherent the belief they can suffocate reality by being better,smarter,more thorough,more statistics,more analysis.I see a lot of that in the guy in the mirror!Shrugging it off and moving on is always the solution.Then,after a few weeks of winning you wonder how you got worked into such a state.

Although I think some of it is meets too.You get trapped in a meet that's rubbing you wrong for a variety of reasons,you're not married to it.Certain tracks give me absolute fits at times.Set it down.

[shouldacoulda]

Quinn said age has a bit to do with it as well. I think it has to do with age and development of the horse in question with regards to the race conditions. For some reason I do best in summer and fall and without a doubt low to middle priced claimers. Once you get below 5000claim price things get erratic and it would leave one to think it was more from juice than form. That's just my opinion based on what I have seen.

[classhandicapper]

An interesting phenomenon I see is the varying predictiveness of class vs. speed figures.

I like to view races both ways because I think each method has strengths and weaknesses.

I see periods where the horse I think is the mostly likely winner based on speed figures is winning way more often than the horse I am making the "class" of the race. Then all of a sudden it reverses and class starts dominating.

I would think it was a totally random distribution of results, but I think I may have a couple of insights into knowing beforehand which is more likely to be predictive.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by magwell

Two yr olds in the summer like Saratoga and other major tracks fav. win a very high % ......

This is what I avoid-- favorites. Much rather sit out of the game during the summer, than be stuck playing favorites. During the summer, most of the races have fewer real contenders.