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08-03-2022, 03:35 PM
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#1
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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TOGA Trends
After 3 weeks, some trends using BRIS data.
Dirt sprints
Looking at top 3 prime power, top 2 SR last race, 45% winners [33 races]
Bet $30 Ret $97.10 +67.10
Dirt routes
20 OUT OF 27 [74%] won by top 2 prime power
Bet $108 Ret $131.80 +23.80
Turf sprints
9 0f 18 races [50%] won by top 2 ACL
Bet $72.00 Ret $93.40 +21.40
Turf routes
CC and ACL the most predictive, but no profits
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-03-2022, 04:56 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
After 3 weeks, some trends using BRIS data.
Dirt sprints
Looking at top 3 prime power, top 2 SR last race, 45% winners [33 races]
Bet $30 Ret $97.10 +67.10
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The others were clear to me - this one is a little fuzzier. I'm reading it as taking the top 3 prime power, and out of those top 3 adding the filters that they also needed to be in the top 2 speed ratings last race, and have a 45% winning percentage?
If that's right - is that winning percentage filter exclusively dirt sprints?
Thanks!
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Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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08-03-2022, 05:32 PM
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#3
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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The winner ranked 1-2-3 PP AND 1-2 SR.
If the top 2 SR horse are not in the top 3 PP, no bet.
I calculated everything exclusively to dist/surf, but not all races were used. Races with a few FTS were not used, off turf with massive scratches, etc, but most "playable" races.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-03-2022, 05:52 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
The winner ranked 1-2-3 PP AND 1-2 SR.
If the top 2 SR horse are not in the top 3 PP, no bet.
I calculated everything exclusively to dist/surf, but not all races were used. Races with a few FTS were not used, off turf with massive scratches, etc, but most "playable" races.
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That's more clear - thank you!
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Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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08-03-2022, 06:53 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Probably a dumb question, but what is ACL? And CC?
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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08-03-2022, 07:10 PM
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#6
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
Probably a dumb question, but what is ACL? And CC?
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ACL- Average Competitive Level based on the Race Ratings when finishing in the money
CC- Current Class is based on horses' most recent starts with more importance on the most recent starts at or near today's distance
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Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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08-03-2022, 07:26 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
ACL-Average Competitive Level based on the Race Ratings when finishing in the money
CC-Current Class is based on horses' most recent starts with more importance on the most recent starts at or near today's distance
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Thanks!
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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08-03-2022, 10:34 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Is the reference here to the actual BRIS Race Rating and Class Rating? Wouldn't it be better to use the Speed Par for both measures? I find that the listed Par Race Rating and Par Class Rating are often much different from the ratings found among the horses in the field. Any thoughts?
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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08-04-2022, 01:53 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,290
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Tom, I ran a similar query for SAR dirt routes using top 2 HDW PSR.
Code:
UDM Definition: SAR-DirtRouteTest
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: D*
Distance Req: R
HDW PSR: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 2 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
Track: SAR
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Show on Text Report: False
Filters Applied: -DATE: 7/14/2022 to 7/31/2022
Dirt (All*) ROUTES (From Index File: C:\2022\Q3_2022\pL_profile.txt)
Track: SAR
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 130.80 111.70 89.50
Bet -112.00 -112.00 -112.00
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P/L 18.80 -0.30 -22.50
Wins 20 32 33
Plays 56 56 56
PCT .3571 .5714 .5893
ROI 1.1679 0.9973 0.7991
Avg Mut 6.54 3.49 2.71
From there I broke the above HDW PSR rank <= 2 data out by rank for a handful of other factors and pasted the breakout data into a text file: here.
Code:
By: CompoundAP Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 28.00 34.00 1.8235 10 17 .5882 1.6471 6.20
2 19.30 20.00 1.9650 5 10 .5000 1.4000 7.86
3 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 0.50 16.00 1.0313 3 8 .3750 1.0500 5.50
5 -6.40 12.00 0.4667 1 6 .1667 0.4667 5.60
6 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 1.40 6.00 1.2333 1 3 .3333 0.9333 7.40
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Code:
By: CompoundE2 Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 28.70 32.00 1.8969 9 16 .5625 1.5750 6.74
2 10.20 20.00 1.5100 5 10 .5000 1.4000 6.04
3 -8.50 18.00 0.5278 2 9 .2222 0.6222 4.75
4 -2.80 20.00 0.8600 2 10 .2000 0.5600 8.60
5 -6.20 12.00 0.4833 1 6 .1667 0.4667 5.80
6 -0.60 8.00 0.9250 1 4 .2500 0.7000 7.40
7 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Speaking from my own personal experience here:
It's not terribly difficult to create rules based spot plays that point out +ROI areas in the past.
I'm often amazed that seemingly obvious factors are not just overlooked, but to the extent they are sometimes overlooked.
That said, most of the time, when I subject rules based spot plays to forward testing:
The +ROI is seldom repeated any time soon.
But every once in a while, the shelf life is longer than you might think.
And I ask myself:
What confounding factors are out there making that possible?
Haven't subjected this to any kind of forward testing yet.
But either way --
Tom, interesting thread.
-jp
.
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Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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08-04-2022, 04:12 PM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Dirt routes now 23 of 30 top 2 PP.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-04-2022, 09:59 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Jeff, have you analyzed the power number in combination with either jockey or trainer numbers? If so, do those findings also tend to regress to the mean? I ask because it seems to me that at Saratoga an unusually high percentage of races are won with top jocks and trainers. Admittedly, that is based on perception and not actual statistical studies.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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08-04-2022, 10:46 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 9
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Hi, I have a dumb question... what does TOGA stand for?
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08-04-2022, 10:49 PM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stok$$
Hi, I have a dumb question... what does TOGA stand for?
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Saratoga
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08-05-2022, 12:13 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Or a party where people wear sheets and drink beer.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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08-05-2022, 09:36 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 9
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Oh, now it makes sense. Thanks
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