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Old 07-31-2022, 08:47 PM   #1
jocko699
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Justique

Shirreffs may have another really special one.
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Old 07-31-2022, 08:51 PM   #2
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Posted this in the Del Mar Playalong thread.

That was a very easy win by that

Worth watching to see the next one.
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Old 08-01-2022, 12:58 AM   #3
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Looked like a relatively slow race.
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Old 08-01-2022, 06:58 AM   #4
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Looked like a relatively slow race.
First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot BUT it's rare for a 2YO on the dirt to close from dead last to win.

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 08-01-2022 at 07:01 AM.
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:12 AM   #5
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First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot BUT it's rare for a 2YO on the dirt to close from dead last to win.
Easier to come from last in a fast paced slow race.
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:16 AM   #6
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Easier to come from last in a fast paced slow race.
Was NOT close to being all out nearing the wire. And yes, that's what I said when I said "First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot"
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:17 AM   #7
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72 Beyer for Justique and an 84 for firster Jackstown in the 1st race.
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:20 AM   #8
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Was NOT close to being all out nearing the wire. And yes, that's what I said when I said "First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot"
I would have emphasized close instead of NOT.

The racetrack is littered with claimers that ran slow figures in their debuts but passed the so called eye test.
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:21 AM   #9
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Old 08-01-2022, 09:22 AM   #10
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Three 5.5f races at Del Mar on Sunday.

R1 MSW 22.2 45.1 57.1 1:03.2
R6 MCLM 22.0 46.3 59.2 1:05.4
R8 MSW (F) 21.2 45.0 57.4 1:04.1

Closing from last is always exciting for the fans, but these numbers are not particularly outstanding.
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Old 08-01-2022, 10:13 AM   #11
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Shirreffs may have another really special one.
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Old 08-01-2022, 10:18 AM   #12
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She has a few things going for her.

1. The Beyer PAR for these races is 72. She matched the PAR while in hand.

2. Shirreffs is 1 for 30 with an ROI of .63 on $2 bets with 2 yo firsters over the last 5 years. The only winner is Justique.

3. He's 3/59 overall with firsters, with 1 winner being Justique.

4. Not much you can tell about the quality of the field, but the LRC horses that had already run didn't look like much.

There have quite a few faster 2yo filly debuts, but I think we can conclude based on Beyer figures she was an average or slightly above average debut winner that was almost certainly not cranked for her best by Shirreffs.

Where she goes from here will be determined later, but at least the Justify's are really running.
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Old 08-01-2022, 10:20 AM   #13
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She has a few things going for her.

1. The Beyer PAR for these races is 72. So she matched the PAR while in hand.

2. Shirreffs is 1 for 30 with an ROI of .63 on $2 bets with 2 yo firsters over the last 5 years. The only winner is Justique.

3. He's 3/59 overall with firsters, with 1 winner being Justique.

There have quite a few faster 2yo filly debuts, but I think we can conclude based on Beyer figures she was an average or slightly above average debut winner that was almost certainly not cranked for her best by Shirreffs.

Where she goes from here will be determined later, but at least the Justify's are really running.
Great points
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Old 08-01-2022, 10:34 AM   #14
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Three 5.5f races at Del Mar on Sunday.

R1 MSW 22.2 45.1 57.1 1:03.2
R6 MCLM 22.0 46.3 59.2 1:05.4
R8 MSW (F) 21.2 45.0 57.4 1:04.1

Closing from last is always exciting for the fans, but these numbers are not particularly outstanding.
Track may have changed over the course of a day's racing, R1 went off at 2:00 pm, R8 went off at 5:30
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Old 08-01-2022, 10:47 AM   #15
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Track may have changed over the course of a day's racing, R1 went off at 2:00 pm, R8 went off at 5:30
Maybe it sped up, as the 10th race went in a relatively quick 1:09.79.
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