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Old 07-28-2022, 01:32 AM   #16
ranchwest
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Really?

You do realize it's possible to model the likelihood of a horse finishing exactly first or exactly second from the data using logistic regression and other statistical modeling techniques right?

I know that it's possible because I've actually done it.

When modeling the likelihood of a horse finishing exactly first one of the requirements when preparing the data for analysis is to create a column for your dependent variable that contains a 1 for the winner of each race and a 0 for all of the non-winners in each race.

I can't see any reason somebody couldn't prepare their data for analysis by creating a column for the dependent variable that contains a 1 for the horse in each race that finished exactly fourth and 0 for all of the other non-fourth place finishers in each race.

And from there run a logistic regression analysis on the data to generate an accurate estimate for the likelihood of a fourth place finish.

That said, if you don't want to go down the logistic regression rabbit hole, you can get a pretty good ballpark estimate just by looking at the data.

Attached at the bottom of this post is a text file that contains two cut and pastes showing what I have in my current database from July 1 2022 through yesterday July 26 2022:

#1. The Fastest Horse in the Race, or horses that are rank=1 for one of my time decayed final time speed fig factors with the data broken out by actual finish position.

#2. The Fourth Fastest Horse in the Race, or horses that are rank=4 for the same time decayed final time speed fig factor with the data broken out by actual finish position.

Note that the rank=1 horses won about 30% of the time and and finished exactly fourth about 12% of the time.

Also note that the rank=4 horses won just 10% of the time but finished exactly fourth almost 19% of the time.

Imo, it's a big enough sample that I feel confident saying that the fourth fastest horse in the race is about 19% likely to finish exactly fourth and about 1.5 times more likely than the fastest horse in the race to finish exactly fourth.



-jp

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Would you agree that another way of stating this is that selecting a first place horse is not the same as selecting for other positions and therefore other postions require a different evaluation?
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Old 07-28-2022, 01:36 AM   #17
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Yes. Absolutely.


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Old 07-28-2022, 09:44 AM   #18
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Note that the rank=1 horses won about 30% of the time and and finished exactly fourth about 12% of the time.
makes sense

and especially when most races are efficient markets.


a crude glance at Win and Exacta is going to eliminate some of the highest % selections for exactly '4Th' picks.
If a horse is terrible, can toss that one also.

If it's a 7 horse field we're down to like 3-5 candidates already, and we've got zero handicapping insight. We just looked at odds at a race as if it was correct/efficient odds.

Game is about opinions or if you are using math or a program about selected horses that fit the odds discrepancy to offer value.

we've got the wagering menu, and hopefully sometimes the pieces fit the puzzle.

You can be a 'Pick exactly 4th!' specialist even... you just won't get many plays, and will face some losing streaks, and it will take some understanding and trial and error to get on the right page.
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Old 07-28-2022, 12:47 PM   #19
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Damn son thats awesome

Thanks for that I will use this !!
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Old 07-28-2022, 12:55 PM   #20
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The printout says 4th or better??? So is 19% exactly fourth??
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Old 07-28-2022, 12:57 PM   #21
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How about a minimum 10 horse field???
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Old 07-28-2022, 01:27 PM   #22
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The table below is a cut and paste of the data broken out by finish position for the fourth fastest horse in the race:

Code:
1ST   3416    348     0.1019  0.9889     1ST or better  000348/003416 = 0.1019
2ND   3416    513     0.1502  1.4576     2ND or better  000861/003416 = 0.2520
3RD   3416    608     0.178   1.7274     3RD or better  001469/003416 = 0.4300

4TH   3416    647     0.1894  1.838      4TH or better  002116/003416 = 0.6194 <--

5TH   3416    534     0.1563  1.5168     5TH or better  002650/003416 = 0.7758
6TH   3416    371     0.1086  1.0539     6TH or better  003021/003416 = 0.8844
7TH   3416    192     0.0562  0.5454     7TH or better  003213/003416 = 0.9406
8TH   3416    103     0.0302  0.2931     8TH or better  003316/003416 = 0.9707
9TH   3416    66      0.0193  0.1873     9TH or better  003382/003416 = 0.9900
10TH  3416    21      0.0061  0.0592    10TH or better  003403/003416 = 0.9962
11TH  3416    11      0.0032  0.0311    11TH or better  003414/003416 = 0.9994
12TH  3416    1       0.0003  0.0029    12TH or better  003415/003416 = 0.9997
Exactly 4TH --
There were 3416 rank=4 starters in the data... 647 of them finished 4th... 647/3416 = 0.1894 (shown in blue.)


4TH or better --
There were 3416 rank=4 starters in the data... 348 finished 1st, 513 finished 2nd, 608 finished 3rd, and 647 finished 4th... (348 + 513 + 608 + 647) = 2116... (2116/3416) = 0.6194 (shown in purple.)



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Old 07-30-2022, 10:52 AM   #23
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Superfecta strategy

I am looking for a very good SUPER HIGH 5 strategy. Any great ideas? Jason Kassa or anyone else? All and any help is greatly welcome. Thanks in advance.
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Old 07-31-2022, 10:44 AM   #24
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I am looking for a very good SUPER HIGH 5 strategy. Any great ideas? Jason Kassa or anyone else? All and any help is greatly welcome. Thanks in advance.
Only great idea I have here is hard work and waiting for a good opportunity.

some solid ideas attached in a tweet ( let me know if those are difficult to access).

Jeff P is also on the right path with the data. Same Superfecta stuff applies.

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Old 07-31-2022, 10:52 AM   #25
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Only great idea I have here is hard work and waiting for a good opportunity.

some solid ideas attached in a tweet ( let me know if those are difficult to access).

Jeff P is also on the right path with the data. Same Superfecta stuff applies.

https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...52761807917057
about a decade ago i hit a ten-cent super that paid $1100. that is about the only luck i have ever had playing those things. once in a while i have plaid no spread single tickets at the Mountain, when i hit them they have all paid less than $50 for a $2 bet. its not my favorite wager, i like the win pools.
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Old 07-31-2022, 10:58 AM   #26
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Super High 5 strategy

Many thanks to Robert and Jason. This a huge help!
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Old 07-31-2022, 03:46 PM   #27
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My Favorite Super High 5 Ticket.

1,2 with 1,2 with Key horse with 4,5,6,7 with 4,5,6,7.
1,2 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,7 with Key horse with 4,5,6,7.
1,2 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,5,6,7 with Key horse.

* 50 cent tickets = $36 Play.
** This one is so good I almost hate to share it. Basically you find a somewhat logical exacta box and a consistant horse that can get in the mix. Fill in the other spots with a couple of speed horses that fade and a couple of late closers.
Works better on Turf due to the fact that Dirt Lone Speed Horses can win but rarely run 2nd thus blowing your exacta.
*** Don't get too cute and try to include impossible horses - the idea here is to just hit it so it is acceptable to include the fav in the exacta along with another low priced horse. Perfect scenario for me is a Turf Route using the Fav and Best Closer in the 1st two spots. Personally, I would only play if there is at least a 9 horse field.
***** Good Luck!
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Old 07-31-2022, 10:23 PM   #28
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about a decade ago i hit a ten-cent super that paid $1100. that is about the only luck i have ever had playing those things. once in a while i have plaid no spread single tickets at the Mountain, when i hit them they have all paid less than $50 for a $2 bet. its not my favorite wager, i like the win pools.
Interestingly, my best super plays have been on lightly raced maidens based on physicality. I haven't played many, but I hit one for $956.54 and one for $560.00. Plus one for about $150 for a nw1 on a stretch out as the lone speed where I felt the other forward horses would collapse.

The key is to have a strong opinion about the race.
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Old 08-01-2022, 01:22 PM   #29
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........The key is to have a strong opinion about the race.

That should be a requirement of any bet!



I don't think there is any general betting strategy that makes someone a successful superfecta player. Betting strategy should be dependent solely on a strong opinion. A ticket built on the opinion that a short-priced favorite can't win would look much different than one where there is a standout selection to win.
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Old 08-04-2022, 01:38 PM   #30
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some good ones Wednesday at Indy


long day in life, and a crazy day even at the simulcast, but managed an OK SU. just missed the hi-5
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