Race fix?

[Jeff P]

One of the strangest rides I've ever seen.

Track video shows fractions of 25.0, 49.3, 1.09.0, and final time for the 7.5f distance as 1:38.4.

The runup in the chart data is 12 feet.

It's a 2 turn race.

Imo, 25.0 for the opening 2f isn't particularly fast.

Assuming of course the fractional times aren't complete fiction, the horse did pick up the pace a bit in getting 4f in 49.3, not lightning fast either.

But 6f in 109.0 after getting 4f in 49.3? Imo, that's moving.

But raw time without context can be deceptive.

I do know from my weather data that when the horse was picking up the pace between the 4f and 6f points of call it was racing fully exposed to an 11 mph diagonal wind. The direction the wind was coming from would have tired the horse the most while it was fully exposed and navigating the first part of the far turn.

Also, the race was run on a track surface that still had close to a half inch of residual moisture in it from recent rains even though it was labeled as fast.

You can confirm the diagonal wind direction part but not the mph when the flags come into the camera shot for several seconds late on the backstretch and again on the far turn.

Those aren't speed favoring conditions and 5 of the 7 races that night were won from off the pace.

I suspect the horse was tiring as a result of running harder than the other horses while fully exposed to an 11 mph wind over a dull track surface after picking up the pace between the 4f and 6f points of call.

Turning for home the rider looks back in a big way and takes the horse to the far outside.

Shortly after that almost half the field goes by.

But at no point in the stretch was the horse ever more than about 3 lengths out of it.

This next part is where things get interesting for me.

Over the past several months I've been doing interval training in the deepest most tiring part of the sand I can find on the beaches in my immediate neighborhood.

I started out by walking a few hundred yards and then jogging the next hundred yards or so until I tired. Followed by slowing to a walk, and repeating the cycle over and over until I felt I'd put in enough work that day.

Little by little I built up my stamina.

After doing this 3 or 4 days a week for several weeks I no longer needed to slow to a walk. I found myself able to run continuously in deep sand.

But it's interval training because of the way I vary the pace.

Last night I did about 2.5 miles round trip. I jogged the first few hundred yards as a warmup. Followed by running the next few hundred yards at a faster pace until I began to tire. Followed by slowing the pace to a jog. Followed by a fast pace again. Kept repeating until I covered the course I set out to cover.

Aside from being a great way to build endurance and get some air into the lungs, I think this actually gives me a unique perspective when watching the replay for this particular race.

After I tire from running a fast pace in deep sand and back off I start to recover.

After maybe 5 or 6 seconds of jogging at a slower pace I recover enough that I'd be able to accelerate to something approaching a full on sprint and maintain that speed for a good 10 or 15 seconds if I really had to.

Look, maybe there really was nefarious intent on the part of the rider.

Imo, the looking back part really stinks. Just a terrible look.

But when I watch the action of #1 KING WITT in the race video I see some of what I've experienced hundreds of times during my interval training.

I see a horse that has tired as a result of running hard under tiring conditions.

Specifically, running harder than the horses it was facing and for too long a time period. Picking up the pace while fully exposed to a stiff wind up the backstretch between the 4f and 6f points of call, and especially during the early part of the far turn. Other than #6 NOTABLE NORA, the other horses in the race weren't asked to do any serious running until much later in the race.

And whether ill intended or not was taken to the far outside. And accidental or not, was given a breather by its rider. A long enough breather that the horse was able to recover some of its stamina. Enough of a recovery that it was able to pick up the pace for a brief sprint to the wire.

Call me crazy, but that's what I see in the full race video.



-jp

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[westernmassbob]

Jeff thanks for your analysis and explanation. Whatever the case may be I find it very disturbing so many people would slander this jockeys name. Does the jockey have a history of being investigated? Has he been caught fixing races before? What may look strange and suspect doesn’t mean any wrongdoing went on. Horse racing has brought many awkward races over the years. I think it’s unfair to label this has “ fixing “. I hope this jock is cleared of any wrongdoing so people can start apologizing.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

Jeff thanks for your analysis and explanation. Whatever the case may be I find it very disturbing so many people would slander this jockeys name. Does the jockey have a history of being investigated? Has he been caught fixing races before? What may look strange and suspect doesn’t mean any wrongdoing went on. Horse racing has brought many awkward races over the years. I think it’s unfair to label this has “ fixing “. I hope this jock is cleared of any wrongdoing so people can start apologizing.

At the very best, it was an extremely poor ride.

[iamt]

A 19.7 3rd quarter isn't moving, its completely and utterly wrong.

[cj]

Originally Posted by iamt

A 19.7 3rd quarter isn't moving, its completely and utterly wrong.

As I mentioned, all the times are fiction there. They hand time the races and it isn't good. The run ups are all fiction too so timing from the gate isn't much help either.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Over the past several months I've been doing interval training in the deepest most tiring part of the sand I can find on the beaches in my immediate neighborhood.

I started out by walking a few hundred yards and then jogging the next hundred yards or so until I tired. Followed by slowing to a walk, and repeating the cycle over and over until I felt I'd put in enough work that day.

Little by little I built up my stamina.

After doing this 3 or 4 days a week for several weeks I no longer needed to slow to a walk. I found myself able to run continuously in deep sand.

But it's interval training because of the way I vary the pace.

Last night I did about 2.5 miles round trip. I jogged the first few hundred yards as a warmup. Followed by running the next few hundred yards at a faster pace until I began to tire. Followed by slowing the pace to a jog. Followed by a fast pace again. Kept repeating until I covered the course I set out to cover.



.

Great stuff about training. I have lost wgt and gotten very fit (for an old fat guy). My standard jog covers a 1.5 mile trek on the grounds at Mnr, but I also fast-walk and slow-jog hills in nearby parks. A friend and I hiked 4 miles through the woods -most of it steep ascent-and then jogged a mile to top it off yesterday.

Do you mix in wgt training? I have lifted 3x a week for decades, but find the effects of aging on my muscles and strength to be downright depressing. I suspect that has much to do with decreased flexibility.

No doubt ready to take it all to higher level, but leery of taxing my body to greater extent.

Incidentally, they say it's the speed you maintain during the "rest" portions of intervals that best reflect degree of fitness.

I have known horsemen that experimented by implementing "human" training methods in the conditioning of thoroughbreds. One guy breezed them twice per session, with a 30 minute rest period between, and found that the second drill invariably clocked faster than the first-often much faster, while another trainer mixed fast intervals into gallops.

FWIW, neither man won many races, and both found that thoroughbred legs stood up poorly to these unorthodox methods.

Humans are a much sounder, more durable species.

Pertaining to the race in question: I have (considerably) less trouble with the horse coming again in such extreme and unlikely fashion (there ARE potential reasons for this) than I do with the RIDE.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by iamt

A 19.7 3rd quarter isn't moving, its completely and utterly wrong.

Originally Posted by cj

As I mentioned, all the times are fiction there. They hand time the races and it isn't good. The run ups are all fiction too so timing from the gate isn't much help either.

Yep. I should have done the math before posting.

There's no way KING WITT ran that 3rd quarter in 19.7 seconds.

It's a shame ASD is publishing fictional times.

Originally Posted by ranchwest

At the very best, it was an extremely poor ride.

I actually agree with you that it was a poor ride.

Sheldon Chickeness had KING WITT out there winging it against the grain vs. speed tiring conditions.

I suspect the other riders in the race knew Chickeness was going too fast for the conditions and were sure (as much as one can be in a horse race) that he would come back to them, which he did.

I think the thing that caught everybody by surprise here is that by taking his mount to the far outside before easing up, KING WITT was able to catch a breather for a few seconds, and recover enough stamina to mount a late charge.

Had Chickeness remained on the rail and backed up, I think it likely at least one or two of the horses that initially went by would have crossed over against the rail leaving little or no room for any kind of late charge.

Had that happened I doubt we'd even be talking about this race.



-jp

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[green80]

Originally Posted by cj

Certainly brings back memories of that race in Louisiana where three riders tried to fix the trifecta but weren't able to pull it off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wII4p6JuaYg

Actually those guys tried to fix a lot of races, sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Great stuff about training. I have lost wgt and gotten very fit (for an old fat guy). My standard jog covers a 1.5 mile trek on the grounds at Mnr, but I also fast-walk and slow-jog hills in nearby parks. A friend and I hiked 4 miles through the woods -most of it steep ascent-and then jogged a mile to top it off yesterday.

Do you mix in wgt training? I have lifted 3x a week for decades, but find the effects of aging on my muscles and strength to be downright depressing. I suspect that has much to do with decreased flexibility.

No doubt ready to take it all to higher level, but leery of taxing my body to greater extent.

Incidentally, they say it's the speed you maintain during the "rest" portions of intervals that best reflect degree of fitness.

I have known horsemen that experimented by implementing "human" training methods in the conditioning of thoroughbreds. One guy breezed them twice per session, with a 30 minute rest period between, and found that the second drill invariably clocked faster than the first-often much faster, while another trainer mixed fast intervals into gallops.

FWIW, neither man won many races, and both found that thoroughbred legs stood up poorly to these unorthodox methods.

Humans are a much sounder, more durable species.

Pertaining to the race in question: I have (considerably) less trouble with the horse coming again in such extreme and unlikely fashion (there ARE potential reasons for this) than I do with the RIDE.

I do mix in weight training.

Joined a gym in 1993 and except for one brief period several years ago, I had been going 5 or more days a week up until the pandemic hit.

I came down with the Coronavirus (remember when that's what it was called?) in March 2020 and was sick for about 7 weeks.

About the same time all of the gyms in my area were ordered closed.

During the 7 weeks I was sick I self isolated so as not to infect others, had groceries delivered, and actually did daily full body workouts with dumbells.

Simply put: Getting the heart rate up for 30 or 40 minutes each day not only made me feel better, but definitely improved my outlook.

After recovering from being sick I wanted to go back to the gym.

But all of the gyms in my area were ordered closed, and would remain closed for almost a year.

So I cancelled my memberships (actually had three at different gyms) and picked up some free weights at a second hand sports store.

Of course I needed a replacement for the cardio I'd been getting at the gym.

Instead of treadmills and various stair machines I turned to marching in the deep sand on my local beaches.

Several months ago I turned that into the interval training described above.

But even without a gym membership, I never really missed a beat.

I turn 65 in a few weeks.

And no, I'm not nearly as flexible as I once was. But that's my own fault. Haven't been stretching near as much as I did when I had gym memberships.

Re: Taking it to a higher level.

Imo, it's pretty simple.

Make a commitment to doing the work, show up, and do as much as you can.

Do too much and our bodies have a way of letting us know.

As long as you are paying attention you really can't go wrong.

Like you said we humans are a sound durable species.

PS. Would love to hear your thoughts on the ride. Have always respected your work.


-jp

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[Sysonby]

My personal feeling is that the goal was to keep the horse in the restricted class he's currently in. He's been picking up pieces of purses consistently in that division but goes into a tougher division with a win.

[$w1fT]

Originally Posted by Sysonby

My personal feeling is that the goal was to keep the horse in the restricted class he's currently in. He's been picking up pieces of purses consistently in that division but goes into a tougher division with a win.

So this is a round about way of saying the jockey fixed the race…

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Sysonby

My personal feeling is that the goal was to keep the horse in the restricted class he's currently in. He's been picking up pieces of purses consistently in that division but goes into a tougher division with a win.

I guess it’s not unheard of for someone to hope their horse doesn’t win so they can keep a condition. But if you actually planned something like that, I think better strategy would be to tell the jockey to take back and make one very late run. That’s a better to keep getting a piece without getting the win.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Jockey pulling horses isn't new, nor is it rare. It's gotten worse IMHO the last few years as the cash-strapped barns try to stay afloat, and cash a bet at decent odds. Lots and lots of boat rides. Harness racing is much worse, as the horses can run every week and make 30 starts a year.

I've observed many boat rides, and heard of many other nefarious activities with drugs, buzzers and the "cooperation" of other jocks/drivers to help get the hapless longshot in the gimmicks.

It's so bad now it needs to be a factor in your handicapping, except for top races and race days. Hong Kong is as clean as it gets, and there's some wild plunges at that track as well.

[Maximillion]

I play most of the cheaper tracks (not the one in this thread tho) and not really seeing people pulling horses as any kind of common thing at all.I guess if you are able to spot this sort of thing happening a lot there should be plenty of opportunities out there for you.

As far as "cashing bets", how much can you bet at a track like ASD etc.?

[cj]

Somehow this guy was allowed to ride tonight.