Nyra sticking it to bettors..

[classhandicapper]

IMO these kinds of things are an underappreciated risk factor you have to consider when deciding which pool to go into to maximize your opinion.

It's hard enough to find any edge at all, but when the track and race conditions can change mid card or the track can make decisions without time for you to react, you are sometimes going to get stuck with bets you never would have made and perhaps miss some you would have made if you knew sooner. Who knows how much that's worth long term, but I'd way rather wait until I know the race conditions and who's actually going to be in a race before I wager.

Better decision making by the tracks can alleviate some of that, but not all of it.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Better decision making by the tracks can alleviate some of that, but not all of it.

Better decision making would eliminate the vast majority of the complaining. People understand weather can change things, but not people making dumb decisions.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by cj

Yep, it was the right decision before R1. It was the right decision before R2. It was the right decision before R3.

After the race, it makes things even worse. Imagine you singled the 7 in R3 and see your potential profit cut by 90% by this decision.

Down goes Jerry Quarry, I think he took worse beatings and after this ‘all” race announcement it’s worse

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Better decision making would eliminate the vast majority of the complaining. People understand weather can change things, but not people making dumb decisions.

I understand.

I've never been a fan of struggling to figure out whether a race is going to be run on grass or dirt and who will get scratched if it's switched to begin with. I'm don't want to handicap the weather. Throw this kind of thing on top of it and it makes more sense to me to just go vertical unless you know the forecast is almost a guarantee to be clear. I'm a mostly a vertical player anyway, but this would drive me crazy.

[dilanesp]

What you want to do is anticipate. You need to study the weather, carefully monitor your course conditions, and make your decisions as early as possible.

And then for the rare situations where you miss (and they need to be rare) and need to make a late change, smash the "all" button for the horseplayers.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

If they were going to make R3 an all in the Pick5... the right thing to do would be to announce it BEFORE R1.


-jp

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Absolutely.

Jeff P

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/statu...91918130380801

I'm puzzled by this, but I don't play horizontals much. I thought the rules for surface changes were incorporated into details for specific wagers. A late scratch - get the post time favorite, etc.

This implies the stewards can call an audible.

I know that sometimes they do that for races that have accidents and loose horses and deer and "act of God" factors, but a simple surface change and late scratch isn't handled by the rules?

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by cj

Yep, it was the right decision before R1. It was the right decision before R2. It was the right decision before R3.

After the race, it makes things even worse. Imagine you singled the 7 in R3 and see your potential profit cut by 90% by this decision.

Totally agree. But if they didn’t do that at all . This would of been worse. Allowing the race to stand . Would of been the worst possible out come. But yeah , they messed up.

[burnsy]

Sorry I attempted a positive spin this 7 th race has had a Inquiry for 15 minutes ! Cmon!!!!! You know I bet the entry !! No one is even talking . If I had the entry ! No contest GTFOOH. NYRA sucks !

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Sorry I attempted a positive spin this 7 th race has had a Inquiry for 15 minutes ! Cmon!!!!! You know I bet the entry !! No one is even talking . If I had the entry ! No contest GTFOOH. NYRA sucks !

Grow up kid.
Declaring a no contest was the right thing to do.

If you can't see that then I'm surely not wasting my time explaining it to you.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Grow up kid.
Declaring a no contest was the right thing to do.

If you can't see that then I'm surely not wasting my time explaining it to you.

It was the right call.

I have the entry in the P5, and it is now an ALL race.

Safety always has to come first.

[Jeff P]

I realize declaring the race a no contest was the right thing to do.

But this one stings a little.

Over the past month or so I invested a lot of hrs developing two separate new models. One is based on ability to run early, The other is based on a horse's ability to run late.

My testing revealed that in the rare instances when both models converge on the same horse: Win rate and roi are off the charts.

As fate would have it, today's R7 at Saratoga was the very first instance where that rare event has happened for me during live play (the 1A.)

As fate would also have it, they couldn't get the tractor pulling the starting gate completely out of the way.

But that wasn't the only outside my control 'gotcha' that happened today.

In Monmouth's R9 there was a dead heat for place between numbers 6 and 7.

A close look at the photo I downloaded from track video shows the nose of the longer odds horse #6 getting more of the line that they drew than did the nose of #7 who I bet against. (I might feel better about this if I could see the actual photo.)

But wait, there's more.

There were plays I didn't get to make today at Arapahoe Park. All day long the only thing showing on their track video were the words "Arapahoe Park is Experiencing Technical Difficulties."

Thumbnail images of all three below.

It's amazing how many different ways there are, every single one of them outside our control, that can work to turn a horseplayer's potentially great day into a good day, or even a losing day.

But if I'm being truthful, give me a few hours, and I'll be happy and thankful for the good day that I had.



-jp

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[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

I realize declaring the race a no contest was the right thing to do.

But this one stings a little.

Over the past month or so I invested a lot of hrs developing two separate new models. One is based on ability to run early, The other is based on a horse's ability to run late.

My testing revealed that in the rare instances when both models converge on the same horse: Win rate and roi are off the charts.

As fate would have it, today's R7 at Saratoga was the very first instance where that rare event has happened for me during live play (the 1A.)

As fate would also have it, they couldn't get the tractor pulling the starting gate completely out of the way.

But that wasn't the only outside my control 'gotcha' that happened today.

In Monmouth's R9 there was a dead heat for place between numbers 6 and 7.

A close look at the photo I downloaded from track video shows the nose of the longer odds horse #6 getting more of the line that they drew than did the nose of #7 who I bet against. (I might feel better about this if I could see the actual photo.)

But wait, there's more.

There were plays I didn't get to make today at Arapahoe Park. All day long the only thing showing on their track video were the words "Arapahoe Park is Experiencing Technical Difficulties."

Thumbnail images of all three below.

It's amazing how many different ways there are, every single one of them outside our control, that can work to turn a horseplayer's potentially great day into a good day, or even a losing day.

But if I'm being truthful, give me a few hours, and I'll be happy and thankful for the good day that I had.



-jp

.

its very simple, god has it in for all horse players.

[JustRalph]

Jeff

I don’t know how you find enough decent races to play anymore?


Tell me, how many races do you play a week, versus 10 yrs ago?

[Jeff P]

The short answer is work. Lots of it.

I'm currently finding roughly 60% of the playable races per card that I used to find.

If I can find some free time I'll come back to this thread and post a longer more comprehensive answer.


-jp

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