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Old 07-07-2022, 08:32 PM   #16
westernmassbob
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Handle could well be down at Saratoga, last year's handle was a record by a substantial margin, but the economy is low as far as a possible factor for that. Weather will always be the biggest issue. Lose two Saturdays to rain and you can't be up. Field size is clearly the second biggest factor. Those two variables are also linked.

If field size is the same as 2021, and the weather is comparable, we will likely do similar numbers. Those, however, are big ifs.
Canít NYRA bring back the purse enhancement program they once had to prevent scratching due to weather?

Would it make sense to offer some sort of guaranteed purse for running on an off track day ? The additional revenue from the mutuels would seem to more then cover the extra purse money.
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Old 07-07-2022, 11:36 PM   #17
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The small ups and and downs in the economy don't matter and probably won't factor at Saratoga this year at all, but the 2008-2011 period was a disaster for racing overall when we were in a deep recession and jobs hadn't really recovered. We still haven't gotten back to those peak levels. To me that suggests we are still in a large secular decline that was somewhat masked in recent years by the recovery from that recession period.

I haven't seen data going way back, but jobs have to matter, just not right now.

That's why I am very interested to see what happens in the next serious economic decline (that we may be getting close to with the Fed tightening). If it's as bad as the last one and the impact on handle as bad, a lot of tracks are going to be in trouble.

https://www.jockeyclub.com/default.a...tion=FB&area=8
Foal crops never recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (while pretty much everything else in the world did) and has only gotten worse - the big decline in 2021 is really going to impact next year and if we are heading into another economic disaster it will cripple racing unless some drastic changes occur
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Old 07-08-2022, 03:54 AM   #18
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Foal crops never recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (while pretty much everything else in the world did) and has only gotten worse - the big decline in 2021 is really going to impact next year and if we are heading into another economic disaster it will cripple racing unless some drastic changes occur
IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.
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Old 07-08-2022, 10:50 AM   #19
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IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.
Good stuff.
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Old 07-08-2022, 11:11 AM   #20
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But, is it possible that tbred racing has done nothing wrong and is doing nothing wrong?
The number of casinos continues to grow. The number of competing forms of gambling with strong advertising behind them continues to grow.
It could all be a factor of dilution of gambling dollars. And what has racing done differently to lure money away from this tidal wave of competition?
Even the networks are programming analysts who do nothing but gab about betting opportunities that don't involve racing.
Most grandstands are pretty empty. Racing is generally not considered a destination activity like it was. The charm is lost when we don't attend live racing. It's reduced to a wager. Nothing wrong with that except it's a lost former advantage.
And casino owners certainly aren't going to invest in a product that would require additional subsidy. They'd prefer that the required subsidy cease to exist entirely.
Maybe the question should not be what went wrong. Maybe the question should be what is being tried to better compete with newer competition. It seems like whatever that is should be done on a national scale.
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Old 07-20-2022, 08:51 AM   #21
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There are people( probably most) on here who actually believe Saratogaís attendance and on track wagering wonít be down this year. Inflation is a recipe for disaster and history has already shown us what the outcome will be. Hopefully for everyoneís sake itís as minimal as possible but to think there will be zero impact from the economy is preposterous.
Opening weekend handle was up 18% from 2021 ( over $106 million for the first dour days ) and attendance was up 10%. One weekend does not make a meet but I was shocked you didn't post these numbers.

Don't worry, no matter how wrong you are, Classhandicapper will have your back....so there's that.
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Old 07-20-2022, 08:59 AM   #22
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Opening weekend handle was up 18% from 2021 ( over $106 million for the first dour days ) and attendance was up 10%. One weekend does not make a meet but I was shocked you didn't post these numbers.

Don't worry, no matter how wrong you are, Classhandicapper will have your back....so there's that.
Just like talking about jockey standings on Fox after the first weekend you prematurely bring up attendance. There is plenty of time for a correction but as i stated i hope any loss is minimal. Best wishes for your picks for today.
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Old 07-20-2022, 10:01 AM   #23
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Just like talking about jockey standings on Fox after the first weekend you prematurely bring up attendance. There is plenty of time for a correction but as i stated i hope any loss is minimal. Best wishes for your picks for today.
I'm not the producer, genius, and talk about what they tell us to talk about.

Tough first weekend for you rooting against my picks. Don't worry, I'll suck plenty of days, so don't take the good days too hard.

Given your moronic predictions, you should have posted this weekend's numbers. The people that run the Horseshoe said Saturday was the busiest day they have EVER had, including Travers. As I tried to explain to you, only weather can, and possibly will, ruin our numbers. Comparable weather to 2021 and we will easily surpass those record numbers.

Keep doing your rain dances. You aren't fooling anybody....except Classhandicapper, but that's hardly an achievement.
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Old 07-20-2022, 10:17 AM   #24
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Old 07-20-2022, 11:25 AM   #25
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Keep doing your rain dances. You aren't fooling anybody....except Classhandicapper, but that's hardly an achievement.
Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).

Get back to me on the handle situation during the next recession and you'll see I'm right about that too. Recessions are tough to time. The implications are not. I posted the data.
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Old 07-20-2022, 12:36 PM   #26
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Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).

Get back to me on the handle situation during the next recession and you'll see I'm right about that too. Recessions are tough to time. The implications are not. I posted the data.

The debate is getting old.
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Old 07-20-2022, 12:48 PM   #27
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The debate is getting old.
It's not my debate.

I know who's more right, but on some level they are talking past each other. I could bridge the gap and explain both sides better, but some people have a tendency to make things personal. Then it becomes like politics in the US now. Two sides are dug in, attacking each other, and all hope for better ticket construction lost.
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Old 07-20-2022, 02:27 PM   #28
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It's not my debate.

I know who's more right, but on some level they are talking past each other. I could bridge the gap and explain both sides better, but some people have a tendency to make things personal. Then it becomes like politics in the US now. Two sides are dug in, attacking each other, and all hope for better ticket construction lost.
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Old 07-20-2022, 04:56 PM   #29
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Go back to Twitter and keep making a fool of yourself arguing against wagering math. You are embarrassing yourself, but you just keep digging in instead of letting it die or trying to find a face saving out (which wouldn't even be all that difficult if you understood the issue well).
First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.
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Old 07-20-2022, 05:48 PM   #30
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First post on this board and just like to deal with facts in horse racing when possible. On this post, many folks know Andy's alma mater is Lehigh however few know his undergraduate major. Before questioning his mathematical training, you might want to get the background on that one.
I know he was an options trader.

The debates in horse racing should be about figures, trips, biases, distance, surface etc.. and the fair odds on each horse. After that, it's a matter of choosing the right pool, right bet size, and right bet structure to maximize your results given your opinions on the races, bankroll, and psychological makeup.

The fact that people are still debating some of the basics of which pool to go into and how to structure their bets is telling you the math of betting is not well understood. That includes some very sharp handicappers. IMO, that's because most of us were trained poorly and have flawed "survival" instincts. I should know because I turned years where I showed flat bet profits to win into losing years on multiple occasions in my youth. Then I started learning how to bet.

ITP could use an improved beside manor when offering insights into bet structure to people that are making mistakes, but IMO he's got the right approach.

Someone on Twitter mentioned black belt and white belt ticket structure.

Even a white belt player can improve their results with better ticket structure.
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