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Old 02-22-2022, 10:29 AM   #16
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Its never all or nothing, but if you are going to speculate that Baffert is using something illegal then we should see a similar general pattern with his trainer changes to/from that we see with other trainers that have been caught or that we all kind of suspect are juicing based on move ups.
He's never been a claiming trainer or a guy who took on a ton of trainer changes(surely some examples, but seemingly less than most/all). When we would see short term move ups with Baffert, it would be his own stock from his owners and perhaps with unproven horses that maybe the public considered his second string. They would get a chance as an uncoupled entry in a stakes or AOC/Alw etc... after beginning to show signs outworking a divisional niche horse who had begun to plateau. You'd see the unregarded horse work in company with the upcoming 2/1 favorite for a strong 5f and then win the gallop out going almost 6f or whatever...

with LIG I could see that LIG was probably going to win the Triple Crown if he remained sound. That didn't happen, and Baffert was under a ton of heat, and his big owners thought it wise to transfer barns to another big trainer. They weren't in the dark. The horse had/has a ton of stallion potential value. A drop-off was possible, but not some guarantee. LIG's new trainer has at the same timeline been going quite well, and some nice stakes days and 3yos.

with Maximum Security, again it's complicated. He was a horse that I was not a big fan of initially. Debuted for 16k tag. I thought his win in the Florida 3yo stakes was very much pace aided, but I was aware that his trainer was doing as much and as often as any of the top barns. Servis was doing this with every horse in every race winning at the familiar 25-30W 50-60%ITM (or thereabouts), and he had screwed me a couple times with subpar horses who took money in betting coups while outperforming even their increased baselines. Max outperformed my expectations in the Derby even with the aid of pace. Servis then decided to go for the PURSE/Glory of the Saudi Cup. That can also take a lot out of the horse. (my timeline isn't amazing and I'm not researching more). I think he won that race in a big race, and apparently failed a drug test (I don't know if they had advanced testing for undetectables or a more common PED), Servis went under FED heat when Navarro eventually screwed things up by not being a 'class act' like the genial old Servis. Saudi withholding purse. Max (who shared a big owner that succeeded with both trainers in the past) transferred to Baffert with heavy scrutiny. Won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic for Baffert went to the Breeders Cup with Baffert and was 4/1 in spite of Baffert having the freakish Authentic(who at one time appeared to not get a route in the Haskel), and Baffert also having the BCC exacta (Authentic/Improbable) with Max running 5th... not exactly horrible or disappointing and a deal was done with Coolmore for the 16k super mdn claimer.

we can go on but nobody is enjoying reading all this.

i love this game, and i'm not exactly trying to reveal everything dark about the game, but you and I have corresponded for years so we can debate. You are free to disagree and/or be skeptical that any doping is occurring with baffert aside from therapeutics. In many ways that's a more sane approach.
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Old 07-02-2022, 06:24 PM   #17
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Mandaloun, out of the money today at Churchill in the Stephen Foster. Is he the worst two time Grade I "winner" ever?
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Old 07-02-2022, 10:56 PM   #18
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Why does Equibase and associated PP's not reflect Mandaloun as winner of the Derby via DQ? Still shows the results as is from race day. I thought this was a done deal.
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Old 07-03-2022, 10:19 AM   #19
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Mandaloun, out of the money today at Churchill in the Stephen Foster. Is he the worst two time Grade I "winner" ever?
That was kind of a tough spot off the layoff. I tossed him hoping hed be short enough to be out the exacta. Id give him another race to see if he moves forward before writing him off.
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Old 07-03-2022, 11:24 AM   #20
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Why does Equibase and associated PP's not reflect Mandaloun as winner of the Derby via DQ? Still shows the results as is from race day. I thought this was a done deal.
My recollection is because thats the way its always been. The running line never reflects a DQ. Its just a note in the comments. And if it doesn't happen on race day you probably will never even see the note.
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Old 07-03-2022, 11:49 AM   #21
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He's a hanger.

Hung in the Lecomte
Hung in the Derby
All out to get by a mediocre Midnight Bourbon earlier this year (MB didn't have much finish in him either. I believe a better horse would have held Mandaloun off in that race)
Hung yesterday (then faded a bit) in the Foster
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Old 07-03-2022, 01:00 PM   #22
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He's a hanger.

Hung in the Lecomte
Hung in the Derby
All out to get by a mediocre Midnight Bourbon earlier this year (MB didn't have much finish in him either. I believe a better horse would have held Mandaloun off in that race)
Hung yesterday (then faded a bit) in the Foster
Midnight Bourbon was hardly mediocre. That's just silly. I'm not a big Mandaloun fan either but that stuff is WAY over the top.
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Old 07-03-2022, 01:17 PM   #23
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Midnight Bourbon was hardly mediocre. That's just silly. I'm not a big Mandaloun fan either but that stuff is WAY over the top.
Fair enough...maybe 'mediocre' was too strong of a term, but MB won a maiden and the Lecomte (got away with 48.8-113.4) in 14 starts. Yes, he was in the mix vs some good runners but lost ground in the last 1/8 every time, and lost a lot of races he could have won.
My main point is that Mandaloun got by MB because he caught a horse who was more of a hanger than he is.
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Old 07-03-2022, 03:03 PM   #24
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My main point is that Mandaloun got by MB because he caught a horse who was more of a hanger than he is.
Mandaloun will find his winning form again if they cut him back to 7 furlongs.

They once they assess his true caliber they can focus on the end of the year.

If he's Grade 1 caliber he can go for the BC Sprint.

If he's Grade 2 caliber he can go for the BC Dirt Mile.
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Old 07-03-2022, 07:29 PM   #25
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Mandaloun will find his winning form again if they cut him back to 7 furlongs.

They once they assess his true caliber they can focus on the end of the year.

If he's Grade 1 caliber he can go for the BC Sprint.

If he's Grade 2 caliber he can go for the BC Dirt Mile.
....same with Classic Causeway. The Belmont Derby should be a useful prep for the Jerkens.

Unless Kenny is planning on the Arc next.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:34 PM   #26
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....same with Classic Causeway. The Belmont Derby should be a useful prep for the Jerkens.

Unless Kenny is planning on the Arc next.
If Ron Moquett was actually clever, he would tweet out how Classic Causeway's form reminds him of "early Derby trail castoff" Caleb's Posse...

With Tiz the Bomb missing all his important preps (the 2000 Guineas & Derby Stakes) earlier this year the 2022 Arc is a hopeless cause for the McPeek barn. I prefer to monitor the results of his 2yos at Kentucky Downs to ascertain his international prospects for next year.
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Old 07-03-2022, 09:19 PM   #27
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If Ron Moquett was actually clever, he would tweet out how Classic Causeway's form reminds him of "early Derby trail castoff" Caleb's Posse...

With Tiz the Bomb missing all his important preps (the 2000 Guineas & Derby Stakes) earlier this year the 2022 Arc is a hopeless cause for the McPeek barn. I prefer to monitor the results of his 2yos at Kentucky Downs to ascertain his international prospects for next year.
Because Ron and Donnie Von Hemel are actually the same person?
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Old 07-04-2022, 10:00 AM   #28
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You do have to wonder sometimes what trainers (or owners) are thinking. Its kind of amazing how many starts are wasted running horses over their heads, on the wrong surface, or at the wrong distance even after its clear where the horse belongs at that stage. I think in some cases the owner pushes the trainer and the trainer placates.
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Old 07-04-2022, 12:53 PM   #29
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Mandaloun, out of the money today at Churchill in the Stephen Foster. Is he the worst two time Grade I "winner" ever?
Good question. The horses today seem to have quite a bit of trouble putting together numerous top efforts in a season, and even more trouble putting together G1 performances in multiple seasons. Along with short fields, it's making the game very difficult in North America.

I bet Mandaloun in the Derby, and cashed small. But so far, he sure doesn't look like he's improved much this year. The BC "Classic" looks like it's shaping up to be "toss a dart" time, figuring out which plug will have a peak performance.

July 4th used to be a great racing day, with full cards across the country. Not so much any longer. This whole weekend I've only looked at CD, and I don't have very good luck there.

This year I haven't renewed my NHC Tour membership, and so far I've not compelled to do so. Roughly 80% of my handle now is Hong Kong, Japan and Aussie racing. Sad. Just sad. I used to really love the second half of summer racing at the Spa, Del Mar and Ellis. But I'm not holding my breath.
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Old 07-05-2022, 11:14 AM   #30
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Why does Equibase and associated PP's not reflect Mandaloun as winner of the Derby via DQ? Still shows the results as is from race day. I thought this was a done deal.
https://u713.equibase.com/s/1AI?prof...3-267340e7ef1e

In the event of postrace disqualifications, Equibase does not update the race with the DQ information until the official ruling has been received by Equibase from the respective state’s racing commission. In the event of an appeal, rulings are generally not provided by a commission until that process has been completed.

The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission has not yet provided a final official ruling to Equibase for the 2021 Kentucky Derby due to the ongoing appeal of the Medina Spirit disqualification. As soon as Equibase receives the final ruling from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, and if it results in a change to the official order or finish, the 2021 Kentucky Derby chart will be updated and all related statistics will be automatically adjusted.
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