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Old 06-15-2022, 09:13 AM   #16
tholl
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He finished second at Ascot as a 2YO. You have to wonder why it is so hard for some to look at a horse's pps before talking out of their butt.
But you have to admit that turned out to be a very weak race. Winner, The Lir Jet is a decent horse but nowhere near top class. 3rd place, Imperial Force never broke his maiden. 4th, Call Me Teddy just managed a 2nd place finish in a Group Two before running mostly unsuccessful in handicaps. 5th Macho Pride failed to win in 12 subsequent starts.
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Old 06-15-2022, 09:43 AM   #17
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But you have to admit that turned out to be a very weak race. Winner, The Lir Jet is a decent horse but nowhere near top class. 3rd place, Imperial Force never broke his maiden. 4th, Call Me Teddy just managed a 2nd place finish in a Group Two before running mostly unsuccessful in handicaps. 5th Macho Pride failed to win in 12 subsequent starts.
Maybe so, but it was a solid effort overall, and deciding he doesn't handle the straightaway based on that effort and then blowing the break due to jockey error doesn't feel like sound logic to me. To each their own.

There are a lot of mediocre supposed general theories about racing here that are little more than BS. I don't see sound logic that this is any different about racing in Europe.
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Old 06-15-2022, 09:51 AM   #18
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There are a lot of mediocre supposed general theories about racing here that are little more than BS.
When you are just starting out, it's probably a good idea to read some handicapping books and listen to what other experienced handicappers have to say to accelerate your learning of the basics. The next step in the learning process is to actually test the things you learned and unlearn all the nonsense, which is a LOT to unlearn.
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Old 06-15-2022, 04:18 PM   #19
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It's a shame about the start but when Wesley Ward says that "He's the best I've ever brought to Ascot in all these years..."
that's good enough for me, and as they say in Ireland 'he knows what time of day it is'
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Old 06-15-2022, 05:19 PM   #20
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A simple "good point....thanks" would have sufficed. But, then again, had you done that I would have missed out on how badly you hate to be wrong.

I, on the other hand, am used to it. But thanks for the laughs.
I can't say good point thanks because you didn't make a good point, you just answered someone else's view point with abuse. Also, for the record no one has said he hates straight courses as you have said in subsequent posts, no one has decided he doesn't like straight courses as you have also said, all I said is I have a suspicion he doesn't like them. The fact remains he has woefully under performed in his races here for whatever reason and not acting on the courses may or may not be the reason. The race he came second in should have been a walk in the park for him considering the poor opposition.
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Old 06-15-2022, 05:30 PM   #21
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I can't say good point thanks because you didn't make a good point, you just answered someone else's view point with abuse. Also, for the record no one has said he hates straight courses as you have said in subsequent posts, no one has decided he doesn't like straight courses as you have also said, all I said is I have a suspicion he doesn't like them. The fact remains he has woefully under performed in his races here for whatever reason and not acting on the courses may or may not be the reason. The race he came second in should have been a walk in the park for him considering the poor opposition.
Abuse? I love a victim!

"woefully underperformed"

Yeah, no.

Thanks for agreeing though. Appreciate the support.
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Old 06-15-2022, 05:41 PM   #22
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Abuse? I love a victim!

"woefully underperformed"

Yeah, no.

Thanks for agreeing though. Appreciate the support.
Always nice to have a debate with people who can put a constructive opinion forward without being rude, no matter what they think of someone else's opinion. Others on this thread have done that, obvious you can't so I think it best to leave it there and discuss with the adults.
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Old 06-15-2022, 05:43 PM   #23
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On other news Ortiz today received a five day ban for careless riding on Love Reigns.
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Old 06-15-2022, 05:56 PM   #24
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https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...t-royal-ascot/

Not his week so far.
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Old 06-15-2022, 06:08 PM   #25
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Always nice to have a debate with people who can put a constructive opinion forward without being rude, no matter what they think of someone else's opinion. Others on this thread have done that, obvious you can't so I think it best to leave it there and discuss with the adults.
Nobody has been rude to you hear. Stop playing the victim. It's embarrassing.
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Old 06-15-2022, 06:40 PM   #26
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I realize he missed the break badly and rushed up, but IMO, Golden Pal's performance yesterday was poor. It was a 5F race. He was done very early. I don't care how badly you miss the break and rush up, if you are the best horse you are supposed to last longer than he did and not finish as poorly. IMO, he's had 2 subpar races over there now in an otherwise magnificent turf sprint career in the US.

Intuitively, I have a tough time thinking it's the straight course. In the US, I'm more used to horses not handling turns well. Maybe some horses handle turns so well relative to average it gives them an advantage they don't have on straights (something our Euro friends would know better), but I don't think that's the case with Golden Pal. I think it's more likely he doesn't like to ship or doesn't handle the course itself well depending on the track condition.

Plus, US turf sprinters are getting better, but in general it's probably the weakest division. The US might have some advantages at 2 that don't translate as well as horses mature and the Euros begin to catch up. The training is different.
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Old 06-15-2022, 10:34 PM   #27
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I realize he missed the break badly and rushed up, but IMO, Golden Pal's performance yesterday was poor. It was a 5F race. He was done very early. I don't care how badly you miss the break and rush up, if you are the best horse you are supposed to last longer than he did and not finish as poorly.
You're thinking on this is backwards.

The distance (route v. sprint) is not important in this scenario so much as the relative pace is. Golden Pal not only didn't break sharply as he is accustomed to...he didn't break at all. The horse literally reared up and landed at a near standstill when he came out of the gate. He found himself some 5 or 6 lengths beyond the leaders and was kamikazed into a brick wall by his genius pilot when he hit full throttle to make up that deficit once he found his stride.

Expecting a sprinter to display more stamina after a compromised start is counterintuitive. One ought to be surprised he was able to reach the leading group at all precisely because it was a 5 furlong race. Regardless, nothing about his King's Stand running line is important going forward. A red line should be drawn through it when he reappears.

As for those calling the 2020 Norfolk a "weak race", the field itself was irrelevant. Golden Pal, a maiden shipping in from the US, broke the race open a furlong or so out and only The Lir Jet emerged to follow, ultimately tagging him near the finish. It was 3 or 4 lengths back to the rest of the inconsequential field. The Lir Jet had a solid 2yo campaign subsequently, narrowly missing in a Group 2 before becoming Group 1 placed while finishing in front of the much ballyhooed St. Mark's Basilica (who was ultimately champion 2yo that year and the Cartier HOY the following year). After getting buried on heavy ground as a 3yo, The Lir Jet got gelded and promptly won a Grade 2 when imported to the US. Unfortunately, he required a long layoff after that win and hasn't come back sharp thus far in 2022.

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Old 06-16-2022, 12:23 AM   #28
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You're thinking on this is backwards.

The distance (route v. sprint) is not important in this scenario so much as the relative pace is. Golden Pal not only didn't break sharply as he is accustomed to...he didn't break at all. The horse literally reared up and landed at a near standstill when he came out of the gate. He found himself some 5 or 6 lengths beyond the leaders and was kamikazed into a brick wall by his genius pilot when he hit full throttle to make up that deficit once he found his stride.

Expecting a sprinter to display more stamina after a compromised start is counterintuitive. One ought to be surprised he was able to reach the leading group at all precisely because it was a 5 furlong race. Regardless, nothing about his King's Stand running line is important going forward. A red line should be drawn through it when he reappears.

As for those calling the 2020 Norfolk a "weak race", the field itself was irrelevant. Golden Pal, a maiden shipping in from the US, broke the race open a furlong or so out and only The Lir Jet emerged to follow, ultimately tagging him near the finish. It was 3 or 4 lengths back to the rest of the inconsequential field. The Lir Jet had a solid 2yo campaign subsequently, narrowly missing in a Group 2 before becoming Group 1 placed while finishing in front of the much ballyhooed St. Mark's Basilica (who was ultimately champion 2yo that year and the Cartier HOY the following year). After getting buried on heavy ground as a 3yo, The Lir Jet got gelded and promptly won a Grade 2 when imported to the US. Unfortunately, he required a long layoff after that win and hasn't come back sharp thus far in 2022.
I disagree.

I agree that getting left badly and rushing up is one of worst trips a speed horse can get, but this is one of the fastest horses in the world in terms of pure speed. Unless he hurt himself leaving the gate, getting back into the race was no shock. Tiring was no shock. IMO, throwing in the towel so quickly and fishing that badly was weak, despite that trip, for a horse that’s supposedly one of the best turf sprinters in the world.

All the data I’ve seen suggests being used hard early is LESS of a factor at 5F.

IMO a really good horse that was sharp that day would have hung around a lot better.

Personally, I would have no problem betting against him next time if he raced against a similar field at Ascot off this and his previous effort there. When he comes back to the US, I’d have no problem drawing a line through the effort.

I have no opinion on his 2yo race, but my data suggests that Euro 2yo form tends to be behind the US. They seem to develop later. It’s hard to make US/Euro comparisons at 2, but I think that’s probably why Ward has had some success over there with young horses. His horses are ahead of them.
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Old 06-16-2022, 07:37 AM   #29
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I agree that getting left badly and rushing up is one of worst trips a speed horse can get, but this is one of the fastest horses in the world in terms of pure speed.
You're not being accurate enough here. Golden Pal is one of the fastest horses in the world...from the gate. He's never lit the world on fire in terms of how he finishes a race. He normally breaks 1-2 lengths clear of the field. His distinct advantage is outbreaking the field and running them off their feet early. In the King's Stand he not only spotted the field at least a couple of lengths after rearing at the start, he also did not break running.

As if having a 5-6 lengths to make up when he actually got into stride was not a herculean task enough, given his typical trip (which again is the key to his success), he actually found himself some 8 lengths out of order.

And none of that says anything about the stress differential for a horse that normally establishes a clear lead in full flight finding itself off stride and far back in amongst a large field of horses.

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Unless he hurt himself leaving the gate, getting back into the race was no shock. Tiring was no shock. IMO, throwing in the towel so quickly and fishing that badly was weak, despite that trip, for a horse that’s supposedly one of the best turf sprinters in the world.
It is fruitless to dispute the finer points of Golden Pal's trip after the botched start. He rushed up and tired as most horses in that situation do unless their jocks are intelligent enough to try to sit back and rally late or simply not persevere at all and wait for another day.

Sprinters in general have a very narrow skill set compared to classic Thoroughbreds. Just because Golden Pal is a phenom when he clears the field out of the gate doesn't mean he is talented enough to handle disastrous adversity that takes away his only weapon.

And few horses if any can makeup an 8-length deficit at breakneck speed in less than a furlong and not fall apart afterwards.

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All the data I’ve seen suggests being used hard early is LESS of a factor at 5F.
What data? We're talking about being used hard early after a disastrous start, right?

Otherwise it sounds like you are saying the start is less critical in sprints than it is in routes, which tells me that you don't follow Quarter Horse racing and that you may have ordered chicken salad on rye with a cup of tea rather than tuna on toast and coffee for lunch...

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Personally, I would have no problem betting against him next time if he raced against a similar field at Ascot off this and his previous effort there. When he comes back to the US, I’d have no problem drawing a line through the effort.
I suppose one could consider his 2yo race, where he got tagged in a Group 2 as a maiden in only his 2nd lifetime start, or his 3yo race where he was dusted by a course specialist (3 for 3 at York and rated ~25 points higher there than elsewhere) while coming off an injury and facing older horses for the first time as enough evidence to say he can't handle the European style of sprinting.

But if you base that tenuous conclusion on the King's Stand you're either being disingenuous or simply using the irrelevant 16th placing to load the case.

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I have no opinion on his 2yo race, but my data suggests that Euro 2yo form tends to be behind the US. They seem to develop later. It’s hard to make US/Euro comparisons at 2, but I think that’s probably why Ward has had some success over there with young horses. His horses are ahead of them.
That's nothing new, in fact that's the very reason Ward starting running internationally to begin with.

And one of the critical components of that strategy is that his horses are quicker from the gate...

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Old 06-16-2022, 09:43 AM   #30
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Regarding data.

I track data for every distance, surface, pace scenario, number of speed horses in race and then W2W winners and overall flow at every major track in the US. I also watch loads of race like the rest of us. I can build profiles of what happens under each set of conditions under every pace scenario imaginable (projections and analysis after the fact).

What I am suggesting to you is that as you say, getting left and rushing up is normally a monumental disaster for a speed horse in sprints. We see that all the time.

However, most very good well spotted horses have the reserves to be used very hard early and keep running at 5F. They may lose, but they don’t just stop if they are the best horse. It’s the more frequently run 6F-7F races that can be a disaster that gives us that impression.

In his case, it was so extreme, it obviously had a significant impact.

The debate is about degree

IMO one of the best turf sprinters in the world would have rushed up (as he did) and weakened late, but not as soon and as badly as he did. That leads me to believe he probably wouldn’t have won even with a good start.

I hold him in very very high regard. I think he was less than 100% that day and people that are tossing the race because of the trip alone may be mistaken.

So I’m suggesting that he either doesn’t ship well or doesn’t handle that Ascot surface quite as well as US surfaces. So again, when he comes back to the US I expect him to pick up where he left off. But if he ran back at Ascot off this race and everyone was simply tossing the race because of his bad trip, I’d take a shot against him.
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