Keeneland Handle Off 19.2%

[samyn on the green]

Good post, the truth of the matter is that someone is winning there and if they are ahead of the learning curve they are winning big.

Originally Posted by DeanT

These debates are certainly interesting. When change happens to us as horseplayers we do not like it, and never have really. I took a completely different look when these surfaces came in though, namely if I want to play racing I have to try and learn them. Why? Because they are going to be a part of racing forever.

European horseplayers embrace all weather, as they do turf racing, and I believe that there is a way to work these tracks into ones repitoire as many here have mentioned: CJ, Jeff, Dave S and others. I know people might not want to hear this opinion, but here goes: Keeneland this meet was about as fair as any track I have played for the last twelve months. If people did not take the time to give it a shot, use the polycapping database and try and model the track and the trainers, they were missing out on some good betting opps, in my opinion.

I hate to post things anymore because everytime I do someone thinks it is a HANA post. This is just me as a player. I blew my brains out the first poly meet at KEE a couple of years ago and was swearing at it just like everyone else. I blamed all my defeats on the surface. But once I started doing some due diligence the track was not this engima. I found it was me. Ever since last year I have had good meets betting there, and every time it shuts down I wish it had not. It is a super place to play racing.

Please do not jump on me because you disagree. It is just my opinion as a horseplayer. I believe we have to be open minded in racing. I am of the opine that if horses race on jello I might not like it, but I would try to model the jello and find some overlaid winners. It is just the way I am as a horseplayer I guess - stubborn.

[andymays]

In Europe the Horses with the least class and ability race on synthetic. Why do we want to copy a second race surface for second rate horses?

An not to be a smart ass but why don't we put synthetic in to replace the turf courses as well? We could color it green and then we wont have to move the rails around and if it rains we don't have to take it off the turf. Heck synthetic plays more like turf anyway especially when it's slow.

When we had turf and dirt we had two distinct and wonderful surfaces!

Bob Baffert was quotes as saying that (something like this) synthetic makes good Horses mediocre and it makes bad horse mediocre.

That's why you have photo finishes in most synthetic races. The close finishes produce more pissed off Horseplayers like me!

[DJofSD]

That's why you have photo finishes in most synthetic races.

Now that is something I've never heard before. Is that just rhetoric or is there some element of truth to that statement?

[andymays]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

Now that is something I've never heard before. Is that just rhetoric or is there some element of truth to that statement?

I believe that the beaten lengths thing is much tighter in synthetic races!

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by andymays

I will watch for the Aqueduct figures as suggested.

Down about 10% are the early returns.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Down about 10% are the early returns.

I don't like that number but the truth is the truth.

[Bruddah]

Originally Posted by andymays

I believe that the beaten lengths thing is much tighter in synthetic races!

I agree. The first part of a synthetic race is jockeying for position. The last 3/8ths is about the running. The difference between good and bad horse times in sprinting 3/8ths is very little, thus closer and more photo finishes.

As for me, I don't like 3/8th sprints to the wire. (JMHO)

[andymays]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

I agree. The first part of a synthetic race is jockeying for position. The last 3/8ths is about the running. The difference between good and bad horse times in sprinting 3/8ths is very little, thus closer and more photo finishes.

As for me, I don't like 3/8th sprints to the wire. (JMHO)

Might as well have a quarter horse race!

[cj]

Originally Posted by andymays

Might as well have a quarter horse race!

If that was all there was to it, sprinters would stretch out and win with great consistency. Seeing how they don't, I'll think it runs a little deeper.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by cj

If that was all there was to it, sprinters would stretch out and win with great consistency. Seeing how they don't, I'll think it runs a little deeper.

I agree with you. I was being a smart ass!

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Cangamble

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...y+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

GEE, surely no one would be foolish enough to THINK that the economy MIGHT have had something to do with it. It's pretty reckless to be betting on the ponies when you are struggling to make ends meet. I turned 60 in December and lost my job in the housing industry in January. It's the first time in my adult life that I've been unemployed for longer than 2 weeks. I have only made a handful of bets since January, and I only made them because my account with Twin Spires is in good shape. I find myself being much more selective in my wagers, which is a good thing. I know there's a number of people that don't like the surface, and to those people I would say, you better learn to adapt, because I believe that in 10 years, ALL the major tracks will be synthetic surfaces. I know this will probably be an unpopular post, but that's OK. It won't be the first , nor will it be the last, so fire away.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by 1st time lasix

Personnally I have evolved and adjusted my handicapping. I take very little from those here who merely refuse to learn and just throw up their hands. Tey use any opportunity to bash the use of it. All evidence suggests the poly type surface is safer to the animal particpants--- period. That is clear and rather indisputable unless you are just plane pig headed. Of course OJ was aquitted of a double murder.....so i no longer say anything is absolute. Choose to play or don't play. Never understood the angry venom like disgust at the product. I have also never found a great handicapper yet who can't view races from several different angles. I am also not necessarily convinced that poly creates more "random chaos" than various grass conditions or low level claiming races. Some of the forum make it difficult to see how on earth players ever adjust their handicapping from dirt to grass? To each his own i guess. I will always play Keeneland and support their product precisely because they are much more fan friendly with lower takeouts. On the other hand....I wouldn't make an 3 entry exotic play horizontally or vertically at say- calder or philly where i am surely considered a sucker by their onerous rakes. Game is tough enough without the track scooping 5-12% more out of the pools. Just my 2 cents. Four more of those denominations and I could play a super! Ha!

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

[toussaud]

the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country? I like kurt Becker as much as the next guy but keeneland is not that important.

every bettor has 2-3 tracks they usually play on a daily basis. Keeneland is losing tht fight to be in the top 2-3

[andymays]

Originally Posted by dartman51

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

Or those that don't like it don't play it!

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by dartman51

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

actually those who don't adjust just play dirt tracks.