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Old 06-08-2013, 08:12 AM   #1
botster
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Cool MEADS BIAS STORY LAST SATURDAY

Their was an incredible speed bias last Saturday. Horses who weren't getting involved early on for position had absolutely no chance to win. Case in point, I was in the paddock that night helping a friend race a horse named ALL MY LIFE. This horse put in his best mile in some time that night coming first up right after the quarter and challenging hard in bitter fractions, that on any ordinary night would have had other horses eat him up late in the never ending M1 stretch. When Tetrick unseated him off his bike he said "boy this old horse likes to be near the action"!...lol. The fact is, that trip without the bias would have put that veteran horse off the board for sure.I am not taking anything away from the horse or Tetrick, but we absolutely know this horse!! My friend, the trainer of the horse of whom I was standing next to me cringed as he saw Tetrick pull first up racing past the half in 54:3. I tried to comfort him and said "Their is the bias tonight, maybe it's not such a bad thing". Inside I was thinking the same thing as my friend and was ready to give him my condolences!

We can take advantage on these nights by hitting horses that are coming into reasonably good form and are showing speed. Horses that were bet and had no chance due to the bias can be given respect sometimes in their next starts.

Good Fortune

Last edited by botster; 06-08-2013 at 08:18 AM.
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Old 06-08-2013, 10:18 AM   #2
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It was a speed bias but Rocklamation did rally from 7th to win and two other winners rallied from 4th, so I wouldn't say that closers had no "absolutely no chance." The tricky thing about the night is that most of the horses that won from the lead or two hole were obvious in form horses and that always makes the bias a little trickier to read. The horses that were closing didn't figure to win with any trip.
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Old 06-08-2013, 05:04 PM   #3
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Cool Bias

Yes, Rocklimation did win closing I apologize for that one.That was a true closing effort, the others you had mentioned however were put into play early and won.This night played very hard on closers getting in the win photo and it was not an evening were you saw another horse come close to winning with the similiar trip ROCKLIMATION put in. Yannick by the way knew what kind of night it was last Saturday and snuck in the exotics with two horses by leaving and sitting the pocket.Those horses by the way in my opinion had no business being anywhere in those exotics.It also had PRINCE SHARKA a sharp longshot leave hard, and again, I am convinced lasted only because of his speed in the race and the bias.This night had C-2 pacer ANDY BARRAN blast and motor to the half in 53:4 on his own and almost win.This track was extremely fast and very speed favoring.Lets also remember their was fourteen races carded that night to make strong coclusions on observations.

Pat Berrys horse in my friends race defeated us easily the prior week and we had no excuse, but the following week the bias did him in, and Timmys early decision to get ALL MY LIFE in the race beat Berry horse, because of this strong bias.

Here is one that lost all chance due to this bias.

3rd VAVOOM MASTER 9-2 I threw out, only using a bit for third in his last race that night. Those top two finishers looked strong on paper and were the obvious leavers.This horse just does not leave hard at all and was parked the mile in a dead flow in that race. He had no chance in there, before,during, or after they crossed the wire as the beaten favorite. He raced a super mile and I believe that mile at Freehold on may 11th shows this horse to be very good right now. I just can't see the GP not on him again here.May have to look for exotics.The race this evening does not have those two sharpies who defeated him in the race tonight. In fact this race has very little competition at all!

Last edited by botster; 06-08-2013 at 05:18 PM.
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Old 06-08-2013, 06:20 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botster
Yes, Rocklimation did win closing I apologize for that one.That was a true closing effort, the others you had mentioned however were put into play early and won.This night played very hard on closers getting in the win photo and it was not an evening were you saw another horse come close to winning with the similiar trip ROCKLIMATION put in. Yannick by the way knew what kind of night it was last Saturday and snuck in the exotics with two horses by leaving and sitting the pocket.Those horses by the way in my opinion had no business being anywhere in those exotics.It also had PRINCE SHARKA a sharp longshot leave hard, and again, I am convinced lasted only because of his speed in the race and the bias.This night had C-2 pacer ANDY BARRAN blast and motor to the half in 53:4 on his own and almost win.This track was extremely fast and very speed favoring.Lets also remember their was fourteen races carded that night to make strong coclusions on observations.

Pat Berrys horse in my friends race defeated us easily the prior week and we had no excuse, but the following week the bias did him in, and Timmys early decision to get ALL MY LIFE in the race beat Berry horse, because of this strong bias.

Here is one that lost all chance due to this bias.

3rd VAVOOM MASTER 9-2 I threw out, only using a bit for third in his last race that night. Those top two finishers looked strong on paper and were the obvious leavers.This horse just does not leave hard at all and was parked the mile in a dead flow in that race. He had no chance in there, before,during, or after they crossed the wire as the beaten favorite. He raced a super mile and I believe that mile at Freehold on may 11th shows this horse to be very good right now. I just can't see the GP not on him again here.May have to look for exotics.The race this evening does not have those two sharpies who defeated him in the race tonight. In fact this race has very little competition at all!
I didn't like Vavoom in that race, he only has 3 wins in 43 career starts, but yes he did get dull cover and had no shot. He does have a better spot tonight but I'm not sure he's that much stock. It definitely was speed favoring compared to the normal Big M track but during the summer on hot and humid nights it will be that way, especially when the good horses are racing. A lot of the bias is the horses. Top class horses are simply tougher to catch.
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Old 06-08-2013, 09:58 PM   #5
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Speed Bias again tonight Botster.
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Old 06-09-2013, 06:27 AM   #6
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Cool Saturdays

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Originally Posted by pandy
Speed Bias again tonight Botster.
Yes indeed and you were "right on" about VAVOOM MASTER, his lack of class here showed.He had no excuses this evening. The speed was ruling again tonight, but it was cooler that last saturday and I assume they did get rain there on Friday.The horse ANDY BARAN won tonight with similiar tactics, but his bottoming the field showed a different tale. Saturday June 1, 88 degree night 26:2 54:4 1:22:3 1:52:1. Saturday June 8, 74 degree night 27:4 56:3 1:24.4 1:52.1.The final time was identical,but the splits were vastly different. It's funny because a friend of mine that night said that Jeff Duplaise should have rated ANDY BARAN better last saturday.I think he did the right thing night he was taking advantage of a heavy speed bias.He was beat by a better horse that evening in PASS THE DECK,whom was put into a tuck early and came at him uncovered to get by him. In fact we had a race early on get down to the half in 58:1 that could have never happened last week. What a beast who closed off those walkathon fractions to win there coming home in 26:2, WORD POWER.

Good Fortune Pandy

Last edited by botster; 06-09-2013 at 06:34 AM.
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Old 06-09-2013, 06:46 AM   #7
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Andy Baran got lucky because 3-5 Freddy Hanover broke, otherwise the pace would have been a lot faster. Rescue Plan and Abelard Hanover, both 5-2, were nice overlays, they both should have been around 8-5.
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