The coronavirus

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by woodtoo

Attachment 27864

Some people were never very good at understanding math.

Perhaps this is one of the failures of the Public Education system?

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I wouldn't say "it's over" in Florida, but the curve has certainly been flattened. The past sever days, FL has averaged 48 covid deaths per day (500 Floridians die per day, on average).

48 per day has been the average in April, May and June too.

Heavens waiting room!

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Heavens waiting room!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8QDeY-CbLo

[taxicab]

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorsp...s-15396993.php

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Thanks for posting that.

I thought the following quote from the article was interesting:



I always suspected the actual HIT (herd immunity threshold) would turn out to be lower than the 60% to 70% numbers baked into the worst case scenario models governments everywhere decided to rely on.


-jp

.

Amazing that contrary to these other well understood diseases, the HIT of the croravierus would be that low



The author, JB Handley credentials are spotty....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Rescue

"Generation Rescue is a nonprofit organization that advocates the scientifically disproven[3] view that autism and related disorders are primarily caused by environmental factors, particularly vaccines.[4][5]."

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Heavens waiting room!

The hospitals are well stocked, elective surgeries are still on, the president of a large hospital chain said yesterday that their ICUs are at 80% which is normal and that they are well equipped to create extra ICUs if needed.

The old/underlying should hide out, everyone else goes back to school/work.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

Amazing that contrary to these other well understood diseases, the HIT of the croravierus would be that low

New research indicates that T-Cells play a huge part in immunity and explain why some people are infected badly and others are asymptomatic or have very mild cases. The science is over my head, but I've seen estimates that suggest up to 20%-25% of people are naturally immune, some because of other corona viruses they may have been exposed to in the past.

If you start at 25% immunity and 25% more get infected, you are already at the point where you are closing in on herd immunity. The virus will slow down rapidly because half the people a infected person comes into contact with are already immune.

In NYC for example, the estimate is that over 25% have been infected. Some zip codes are way higher than that. The spread has slowed to a trickle even though we are in Phase 3 of reopening and had many days and nights of large crowd demonstrations, riots, marches etc... with many people not wearing masks and shouting.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Heavens waiting room!

Oh, you mean Florida. Yes.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

New research indicates that T-Cells play a huge part in immunity and explain why some people are infected badly and others are asymptomatic or have very mild cases. The science is over my head, but I've seen estimates that suggest up to 20%-25% of people are naturally immune, some because of other corona viruses they may have been exposed to in the past.

If you start at 25% immunity and 25% more get infected, you are already at the point where you are closing in on herd immunity. The virus will slow down rapidly because half the people a infected person comes into contact with are already immune.

In NYC for example, the estimate is that over 25% have been infected. Some zip codes are way higher than that. The spread has slowed to a trickle even though we are in Phase 3 of reopening and had many days and nights of large crowd demonstrations, riots, marches etc... with many people not wearing masks and shouting.

Maybe. I think the chart I posted with relative herd immunity thresholds of well known infectious diseases is to the point. You and that new research has got a ways to go to establish a relatively low threshold of herd immunity for this virus.

Btw, I mentioned to you without using longer term epidemiological studies of pandemics, we can not assume we are "crushing" the corona virus. What does your machine learning site say about the current national spikes we are experiencing with the virus?

[PaceAdvantage]

So news is starting to be reported that Trump's TULSA rally has "probably" contributed to an increase in COVID-19 cases in and around TULSA.



Yup...no shock there.

Folks packed into the streets...protesting...HCAP and the MEDIA tells us definitely little to NO cause of COVID case increase (this despite charts in the last couple of weeks screaming with increased cases in younger adults, which hasn't been seen before).

But that TRUMP RALLY...definitely linked to an increase in cases.

Imagine that.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So news is starting to be reported that Trump's TULSA rally has "probably" contributed to an increase in COVID-19 cases in and around TULSA.



Yup...no shock there.

Folks packed into the streets...protesting...HCAP and the MEDIA tells us definitely little to NO cause of COVID case increase (this despite charts in the last couple of weeks screaming with increased cases in younger adults, which hasn't been seen before).

But that TRUMP RALLY...definitely linked to an increase in cases.

Imagine that.

You never explained why NYC and Wash DC, both with huge protests have declining new cases. While your at it, explain France, Germany, Denmark and Finland.

France and Germany specifically very large George Floyd protests no increases in cases. How come?

Maybe NYC, DC and those foreign countries were all par of the giant cosmic conspiracy to make Donald the False look bad?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So news is starting to be reported that Trump's TULSA rally has "probably" contributed to an increase in COVID-19 cases in and around TULSA.



Yup...no shock there.

Folks packed into the streets...protesting...HCAP and the MEDIA tells us definitely little to NO cause of COVID case increase (this despite charts in the last couple of weeks screaming with increased cases in younger adults, which hasn't been seen before).

But that TRUMP RALLY...definitely linked to an increase in cases.

Imagine that.

whats better is they will take a picture at a indoor bar with 200 people and say that is a super spreader but a crowd of 5000 or more doesnt do a thing. They will find some article written by one of their comrades to support their theory and away they go.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

Maybe. Btw, I mentioned to you without using longer term epidemiological studies of pandemics, we can not assume we are "crushing" the corona virus. What does your machine learning site say about the current national spikes we are experiencing with the virus?

What's happening now is that we are getting ROLLING spikes in different areas.

You can't look at the data on a country level.

Some areas of the country have an infection rate in low single digits and some areas (like NYC) have infection rates in the 25% range and there's everything in between.

The areas that were hit first and hard are doing WAY better now.

Some areas that didn't get hit hard early are getting hit now instead.

I would bet that states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California where the outbreaks and spikes are now are about half way to the point they have to get until things start turning around. Then cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will start dropping fast for them. Give it 4-6 weeks and we'll be talking about how Florida is making a huge comeback.

Then it might move to more rural states that haven't been hit yet and so on until the nation as a whole is done.

[myohmyjustify]

The rising number of Covid cases is irrelevant because the death rate has been plummeting while reaching record low levels from March highs. The death rate is the only statistic that matters, except to those that live and die by the words of Dr Anthony Fauci, who has been wrong on every prediction and analysis he's made ever since this all began.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

The rising number of Covid cases is irrelevant because the death rate has been plummeting while reaching record low levels from March highs. The death rate is the only statistic that matters, except to those that live and die by the words of Dr Anthony Fauci, who has been wrong on every prediction and analysis he's made ever since this all began.

we are at 1.75% overall in Arizona, and 0.62% if you take since the reopening. I wish they would list death rates by age from the reopening but they only do from the beginning so its tough to make a conclusion.