You are mentoring a promising beginner...

[proximity]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What do you tell him?

before i tell him anything, i have him get wet and sandy and put him through a hard, sleepless weekend of pt.

toward the end i tell him that "this isn't about handicapping horses... my grandma wants to handicap horses..... IT'S ABOUT CHARACTER..."

i then beg for his d.o.r. and if i don't get it i issue him a copy of steve fierro's book, my own fierro based caveman template, both of bmeadow's books (blackjack autumn for the general ups and downs of a daily gambling life) and we start on wednesday gradually increasing the number of races handicapped per day as he gets "in shape" for the daily grind and also accumulating some percentages on contenders overall and in different race configurations.

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I would say that the most important considerations are:

1. Picking good contenders

For me this is # 1 too, it's what I spend the most time on.
There are those that can, & those that can't.

There's an old song from the 1940's-

"You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In-Between"

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I would say that the most important considerations are:
1. Picking good contenders
Dave Schwartz

And never leave off Rudy or Jacobsen on your mulit race wagers in NY.

[Robert Fischer]

I'd tell him to listen carefully, and to ask questions.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by EJXD2

I don't know if this falls under trite advice, but I think a big trap novice and casual handicappers fall into is worrying too much about picking a winner.

Not picking winners because ultimately you do have to have some opinion on that, but save the "on top" selection for the tip sheets and focus on how you can make the most money off each wagering opportunity (and sometimes that includes keeping money in your wallet).

I think poker literature does a much better job explaining this. It's not about winning the hand or folding losers. It's about winning as much as possible per pot/session (or, again, avoiding losing situations).

I couldn't disageee more about picking winners. You have to pick winners and pick them often. This waiting for a value bet is a nice theory, but in real life.... almost nobody can pass a lot of races in a row and then when have 8 or 10 value bets lose in a row, you start doing foolish things. Horse racing is not poker . In poker there is pot every few minutes, it easy to fold and wait for a hand, but try folding for 2 straight hours sometime. Bad things start to happen in many ways. In racing, it is 25-30 minutes between races. Sometimes you have to bet a winner even though the value isn't there, just to keep your head in the game. he has got to learn to pick winners before he starts betting exotics or his head will really get messed up. Betting Exotics for value is about step 4 in the learning process. It is not for beginners. You have start by betting 1 track, then step 2 is betting 2 or 3 tracks , if he gets that far.
Back in the days of online poker and poker forums, there was always someone posting about how they could not beat the bottom level because nobody ever folded to their bluffs, so they were going to move up in stakes in search of people who would fold to his bluffs. These posters soon disappeared for obvious reasons. You have got learn to crawl before you can walk and walk before can run. Picking winners at one track is crawling. Betting exotic for value is running really fast.

[DeltaLover]

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

[Robert Goren]

Nice post Delta.

I decide after few seconds of real reflection that you should tell him that you can't teach him anything and to go pester someone else. as the old saying goes " those can't do, teach" there a corollary to it I read someplace "those who can do make lousy teachers" In sports, the best players almost aways make lousy coaches.

[MaTH716]

All kidding aside, discipline is one of the most important thing that you need to learn. If you have no feel or don't like a particular race/sequance just pass on it.

Unfortunatley this is something that I still struggle with. But it's more of a factor of me being a couple a times a month player. If I get a free day to play, I want to take advantage of the opportunity and play. Obviously I look at it as a hobby/entertainment. But I have gotten much better since the days of walking into OTB and having my head on a swivel saying ok there's 3 minutes till Aqueduct, ok Now there 2 minutes to Laurel. Just capping on the fly and betting like a maniac.

Discipline should be lesson #1. Races are like buses, you miss one, there's another right behind it.

[Magister Ludi]

1. First, take the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment. If your type dynamics are INTJ, continue. Otherwise, go no further. You probably don't have the personality type to truly succeed in this business.
2. Do not read any books about horse racing or handicapping.
3. Go back to school to get the following minimal education:

one of these:
BSCS - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BSCS - Stanford
BSCS - Carnegie Mellon

and one of these:
MSCF - Carnegie Mellon
MSFE - Columbia
MEFE - Cornell

4. Now you have all of the skills that you need to make money in racetrack betting markets.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

There is a pretty good book hidden in there somewhere, my friend.

Maybe we should get together and write it.

[DeltaLover]

Why not Daskale??

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

Spot on!



-jp

.

[Robert Goren]

Learn computer programing and become very, very good at it. That way he can write his own programs to do what he wants them to do. I wish I was one every day. It would save me a lot of grunt work. Besides that skill is useful in a lot of jobs if the horse racing thing doesn't work out.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Learn computer programing and become very, very good at it. That way he can write his own programs to do what he wants them to do. I wish I was one every day. It would save me a lot of grunt work. Besides that skill is useful in a lot of jobs if the horse racing thing doesn't work out.

Rob, it is never late...

We can start a new thread about how one can learn how to program if there is some interest from our community..

It is quite achivable...

[barn32]

It takes years to beat this game. (If you even can.) You're better off going into real estate.

By the way picking good contenders is an overstatement. The public picks good contenders. Picking the winner out of those contenders is the key.

Again, it takes years to get a feel for this game.

Do you really want to devote a lifetime to a game that is as difficult to beat as anything you can imagine?

If yes, go for it. If you have any doubts at all, there are a lot easier ways to make money.