Second time starter

[Aner]

Yesterday in the 5th race at CD (maiden race) all were first time starters except one. In his only try, Hero of Humor, ended up 9th beaten 14 lengths after showing early speed. He paid $45.00 to win. I have often heard a horse frequently runs much better the second time out. It might be my imagination, but I recall this happening a lot.

Does anyone have data showing how 2nd time starters do when they compete in a field where no other (or only one other) horse has ever been in a race before?

[PICSIX]

In my experience they always win....until I bet on them!

[Bennie]

Aner - I thought someone had done a study sometime ago and found that 1st time starters and those who had a start both win about 50% of the time giving no advantage to either. I usually look to see if the horse with a start was "well intended" the first time. meaning they took some tote action.
I have seen the opposite from time to time also, where a horse went off over 20-1 their first time out and are listed like 5/2 in their race because they finished in the money their first race, only to run like a 20-1 horse and finish up the track.
If todays race is a route, I will sometime include the horse with a start if it's first race was at a route distance. Sometimes the little extra "conditioning" helps.

[Ocala Mike]

My old pal from on-line contests years ago! How's it going, Aner? Please, not too much talk about 2nd-time starters, as you'll kill my prices.

Caught a $98 exacta at Belmont yesterday (5th race?) with two 2nd-timers.

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Aner - I thought someone had done a study sometime ago and found that 1st time starters and those who had a start both win about 50% of the time giving no advantage to either. I usually look to see if the horse with a start was "well intended" the first time. meaning they took some tote action.
I have seen the opposite from time to time also, where a horse went off over 20-1 their first time out and are listed like 5/2 in their race because they finished in the money their first race, only to run like a 20-1 horse and finish up the track.
If todays race is a route, I will sometime include the horse with a start if it's first race was at a route distance. Sometimes the little extra "conditioning" helps.

I think your data is correct. However, I am looking not at all 1st time starters in their next race, but in special cases where only one (or two) horses in the race competed before and all the rest are non-starters. I think in this specialized case the horse who has raced has an advantage. I just don't have data to confirm it.

[Robert Fischer]

You want to see something, or see everything go wrong on a well-bet FTS, and then you want to see him come back 2nd time with a little bit of a price.

I don't want to take 9-5 on a 2nd time starter just because he flashed speed 1st time out.

[JohnGalt1]

James Quinn has written the 2nd time starters improve an average of 5 lengths or 7-8 Beyer points in their second starts.

Even though it's an average improvement you can check it out for your self.
whenever you handicap a maiden race, or any race with horses with less than 10 starts. Look at how the horse did in it's second start compared to it's first start.

Mr. Quinn was pretty spot on.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

James Quinn has written the 2nd time starters improve an average of 5 lengths or 7-8 Beyer points in their second starts.

Even though it's an average improvement you can check it out for your self.
whenever you handicap a maiden race, or any race with horses with less than 10 starts. Look at how the horse did in it's second start compared to it's first start.

Mr. Quinn was pretty spot on.

Since almost all the 2nd-time starters run in sprints...5 lengths are at least 12 Beyer points.

[cj]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

James Quinn has written the 2nd time starters improve an average of 5 lengths or 7-8 Beyer points in their second starts.

Even though it's an average improvement you can check it out for your self.
whenever you handicap a maiden race, or any race with horses with less than 10 starts. Look at how the horse did in it's second start compared to it's first start.

Mr. Quinn was pretty spot on.

You have to be careful with averages. Horses that run well first out are way below this...horses that run poor are higher, especially under certain conditions. Second time starters are group where overlays can be found, but like everything else in this game, you have to do the work.

[Valuist]

Part of why second timers are often value is that first timers are invariably overbet. Everyone is the second coming of Secretariat, and even HE lost his first start. A horse can have a ton of talent and look good in workouts but may not know how to react to dirt in his/her face, racing between horses, or racing near the rail.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

You have to be careful with averages. Horses that run well first out are way below this...horses that run poor are higher, especially under certain conditions. Second time starters are group where overlays can be found, but like everything else in this game, you have to do the work.

I agree with you, but the one thing that has always bothered me is that you really don't what "good" is for any specific horse.

Some horse that's going to be a top Grade 1 horse could debut with a 90 (way above PAR) and move to a 100 next time out.

Some horse that has claimer talent could debut with a 75 and never get much higher than that.

Some horse that has very little talent could debut totally cranked up, get a 40, and it might be his lifetime top.

So there's a kind of underlying assumption that if the horse runs well and finishes close up he's probably not going to move forward as much in the 2nd start as if he showed speed and tired, made a little run and hung, had some issues from the rail etc...

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree with you, but the one thing that has always bothered me is that you really don't what "good" is for any specific horse.

Some horse that's going to be a top Grade 1 horse could debut with a 90 (way above PAR) and move to a 100 next time out.

Some horse that has claimer talent could debut with a 75 and never get much higher than that.

Some horse that has very little talent could debut totally cranked up, get a 40, and it might be his lifetime top.

So there's a kind of underlying assumption that if the horse runs well and finishes close up he's probably not going to move forward as much in the 2nd start as if he showed speed and tired, made a little run and hung, had some issues from the rail etc...

This is true...I'm just saying if YOU establish a parameter for a "good race" based on figure, or finish, or whatever, based on age and sex, those that meet the criteria will not improve as much as those that don't.

Of course all horses are unique, and trainers have different goals. I wouldn't want to be betting Pletcher horses to improve 5 lengths second time out, as an example.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by cj

I wouldn't want to be betting Pletcher horses to improve 5 lengths second time out, as an example.

Nor I, but I look carefully at Bill Mott, Linda Rice, and Nick Zito 2nd-timers.

[Tom]

I read a really interesting article on 2nd time starters a while ago.
Maybe it was in the C&X newsletter? Sounds like something Cramer would do.
Maybe Barrry Meadows?

anyway, it looked at what Beyer the horse ran as a FTS and then where it went as a 2TS....some ranges of horses likely to improve or decline....anyone remember it? I'll look through my Cramer files this weekend.

[tackleberry]

Originally Posted by Tom

I read a really interesting article on 2nd time starters a while ago.
Maybe it was in the C&X newsletter? Sounds like something Cramer would do.
Maybe Barrry Meadows?

anyway, it looked at what Beyer the horse ran as a FTS and then where it went as a 2TS....some ranges of horses likely to improve or decline....anyone remember it? I'll look through my Cramer files this weekend.

http://www.altiplanopublications.com/feature.htm

Would this be the article?