what the hell happened at the Big A

[46zilzal]

adapt during the card to what is, rather than what should be

[Valuist]

Was it a speed bias or a rail bias? Somebody mentioned the closer in the last race; he was inside for most of the race and only came out late. I do think some horses got leads w/comfortable paces. After scratches, Jet Prospector became lone speed. All Hail Stormy also went kind of slow, and he still almost got passed by a horse closing on the rail.

[cj]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

adapt during the card to what is, rather than what should be

I don't have a clue what you are trying to say, but I'm kind of slow.

If the hypothetical horse below showed up with those PP lines, how do you interpret them? The %E or %M ratings would be very different, yet could reflect the essentially exact same performance. Does Sartin use a separate pace variant to handle it? If not, how does this problem get fixed?

[PaceAdvantage]

46, do you think you could post some real time selections one day, to demonstrate how you adapt during the card to what is, rather than what should be? I think this would be very enlightening, and I for one would appreciate the effort.

[keilan]

46 – you don’t have to provide anyone with selections in real time, you have rights here. Redboard all you like, heck I myself hit a 87-1 just yesterday (the old grey in the mud angle). Tri paid 128k to the other two grey steeds. I wouldn’t call it a “gimme” but I’d have to say it was the ONLY wager if you’ve been following along.

[GaryG]

Originally Posted by keilan

46 – you don’t have to provide anyone with selections in real time, you have rights here. Redboard all you like, heck I myself hit a 87-1 just yesterday (the old grey in the mud angle). Tri paid 128k to the other two grey steeds. I wouldn’t call it a “gimme” but I’d have to say it was the ONLY wager if you’ve been following along.

Now THAT is a great post...ROTFLMAO!

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't have a clue what you are trying to say, but I'm kind of slow.

If the hypothetical horse below showed up with those PP lines, how do you interpret them? The %E or %M ratings would be very different, yet could reflect the essentially exact same performance. Does Sartin use a separate pace variant to handle it? If not, how does this problem get fixed?

To go into a race without ANY pre-conceived idea how the track is playing and only responding to what bias, IF ANY, one sees TODAY.

I now have no idea what you are talking about. THOSE pp lines?????? When % median varies they DO NOT represent the same performances..

You will have to help me understand the question before I can answer it.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by keilan

46 – you don’t have to provide anyone with selections in real time, you have rights here. Redboard all you like, heck I myself hit a 87-1 just yesterday (the old grey in the mud angle). Tri paid 128k to the other two grey steeds. I wouldn’t call it a “gimme” but I’d have to say it was the ONLY wager if you’ve been following along. :

My ONLY adversary in the parimutuel NO ONE else. I have never had the need to post selections, not now, not ever.

[46zilzal]

When there are certain characteristics of a track which various people have noted for years and years, then overnight those chararcteristics CHANGE dramatically, one wonders why. Having a numerical way of understanding how a bias presents itself helps a lot in adapting when it changes. As I mentioned, I was playing on line with two other people who use the same software as I do and they noticed EXACTLY the same thing and commented on it independently of my input. It would be one thing if I noticed it myself, but these other players are very experienced and very adept at the nuances of the program.

I was simply interested to know what factors might account for it. Plain and simple

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey 46, why is it that folks are more often than not confused by what you say, in that, they have no clue what you are talking about? Does this communication style of yours come naturally, or are you putting us on?

[46zilzal]

not putting anyone on

[traynor]

46zilzal wrote: <When there are certain characteristics of a track which various people have noted for years and years, then overnight those chararcteristics CHANGE dramatically, one wonders why.>

It's called randomness, an affliction that is prevalent in the real world. Models are averages, which are some up, some down, some in the middle. Models are not predictive--they represent historical trends, not future constraints. The very best a model can do is suggest a trend.

Without going all philosophical, you might be interested in searching Tversky's Law of Small Numbers and others on the fallacies in decision making that suppose short range results will replicate long range models. That is not meant to be insulting or demeaning in any way; the paper is a literate explanation of common fallacies that negatively influence decision making (a euphemism for "making losing bets").
Good Luck

[46zilzal]

I understand all that. I embrace randomness and quote that all the time. I just wonder if there was a logical explanation that's all.

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

I understand all that. I embrace randomness and quote that all the time. I just wonder if there was a logical explanation that's all.

It's called randomness, an affliction that is prevalent in the real world. Models are averages, which are some up, some down, some in the middle. Models are not predictive--they represent historical trends, not future constraints. The very best a model can do is suggest a trend. quote; traynor.

I like to think in terms of prevailing conditions in horse racing not models,trends or randomness. That means your opening your mind to a new race, not relying on the above mentioned models or randomness.

T.D.

[kenwoodallpromos]

More soil; unusual maintenance; sealing; rain; freezing; high winds; Deeper harrowing of part of the track.
Those are the main (human and weather or a combination) conditions that would make a track change dramatically overnight.
As I said, sealing and heavy rain is what I believe caused what you and the others found. A couple of years ago I found the most profound daily changes were at the Il tracks.