Handicapping Maiden Races

[coacht]

Looking for any advice, good books or software to handicapping maidens.

I found How To Master Maiden Races and wondered if any one has purchased this book and your results and thoughts. The price is only $24.95 on mr.handicapper.com .

I currently have a few articles that talk about FTS to look at pedigree, Sire and Dams AWD, auction price, lasix , blinkers, consistency of workouts, trainer record with first timers and jockey record as well.

Second time starters, etc are another challenge.

The above book appears to incorporate the tote board action.

Thanks and look forward to any input

[ElKabong]

Since no one else chimed in...

Paddock / physicality handicapping will be your best (IMO) way to make a profit with fts.

Get videos from Takach, Trillis Parker and any other you can find. Parker had a good book on it, but it's not a stand alone.

Lot of practice. Lot of practice...

much better live at the track but still works at the Simo (fewer bets available at Simo, since the looks at horses live will always be more reliable to you)

Workouts. Only look for works from the gate, ignore the others. Exception, fts going 7f or longer. If the horse has good gate works, looks strong and attentive in the paddock, bet it.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by coacht

Looking for any advice, good books or software to handicapping maidens.

I found How To Master Maiden Races and wondered if any one has purchased this book and your results and thoughts. The price is only $24.95 on mr.handicapper.com .

I currently have a few articles that talk about FTS to look at pedigree, Sire and Dams AWD, auction price, lasix , blinkers, consistency of workouts, trainer record with first timers and jockey record as well.

Second time starters, etc are another challenge.

The above book appears to incorporate the tote board action.

Thanks and look forward to any input

I’ve never read the book you’re referring to, but if the author makes reference to the impact of the tote board activities he’s definitely on the right track.

Elkabong’s excellent suggestions about physicality are also right on target, especially when dealing with Maidens.

My own take on not only Maiden races is described on Post #17:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=154513&page=2
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[coacht]

Thanks for replies

[MONEY]

I don't have the stats, but I'm sure someone has stats by auction & breeding price.
1st time starters on the turf that cost $250,000 or more are mostly low odds duds.

[jimmyb]

I always liked Beyer's 'change of pace' which he describes in his book, 'Picking Winners'. I've hit some nice priced maidens using that angle.

[coacht]

Thanks Money, that is interesting about the $250,000 auction price.

Jimmy, can you tell me the actual angle in Andy Beyers Picking Winners book, or which chapter. I believe I still have the book.

I look forward to your response.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by coacht

Thanks Money, that is interesting about the $250,000 auction price.

Jimmy, can you tell me the actual angle in Andy Beyers Picking Winners book, or which chapter. I believe I still have the book.

I look forward to your response.

I wouldn't say that a high auction price means the horse will be a dud, but more that anything obvious like that is going to get bet and it will suck the value out of it. I would definitely take note of a trainer's winning percentages in first and second starts of the horse's career. Again, with the well-known trainers the value gets taken away because everyone bets them, but there are some smaller barns that are quietly good with improving horses. You can still get a price there at times with second and third starters because some people can't bring themselves to bet a horse that lost by 15 lengths in its debut, even if that is that barn's "pattern".

[Robert Fischer]

Especially if you feel the high-auction horse wasn't originally intended for the Turf.

The First-Time-Starter stuff is tough. For me; It's a guessing-game, and info exists that I'm not privy to, which may or may not hit the tote.

There's value to be had, as some of those are nice payouts.
Stick to the fundamentals, and demand some value.


I do like the maidens who have run some races. There's a sweet spot, where you can apply some trip handicapping, and occasionally find some mispriced horses.

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by coacht

Thanks Money, that is interesting about the $250,000 auction price.

Jimmy, can you tell me the actual angle in Andy Beyers Picking Winners book, or which chapter. I believe I still have the book.

I look forward to your response.

Not sure where in the book it is, but here is an example.


Race 2 back: Speed and fade. Best when the horse lead for 2 calls.

Race 1 back: started slow and closed.

Today's race would be a play based on the change of pace.

[coacht]

Thanks Castaway and Robert for insights.

Jimmy , I will definitely apply your suggestion and look at the Beyer book to see if I can locate your example.

What about the tote board ? Nitro mentioned that it makes sense to consider.

Action on a first time starter could mean smart barn money, or maybe to much back stretch hype driving the odds down.

Any thoughts and what might be a good blueprint to follow. It appears the author of the book , I previously mentioned , focuses on the tote board action.

Thanks

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by coacht

Thanks Castaway and Robert for insights.

Jimmy , I will definitely apply your suggestion and look at the Beyer book to see if I can locate your example.

What about the tote board ? Nitro mentioned that it makes sense to consider.

Action on a first time starter could mean smart barn money, or maybe to much back stretch hype driving the odds down.

Any thoughts and what might be a good blueprint to follow. It appears the author of the book , I previously mentioned , focuses on the tote board action.

Thanks

Unfortunately a generic statement like “following the tote board action” can mean different things to the horse player. The majority of players take it to mean just following the odds of each entry in real time. While this may be acceptable at times because the changes are obvious it is not a “blueprint” for making any solid determinations.

I use a sophisticated and proprietary tote analysis that monitors and explores all of the mutual betting pools to determine which of the entries are the potential contenders. I only use the odds themselves to determine if there’s enough value in the race to make a play. I enjoy making Dutch win bets as well as playing vertical exotics.
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[ultracapper]

FTS are brutal for the simple fact everything they do in the mornings, everything all the folks on the backstretch "know", can mean so little when the horse gets it's first taste of the afternoon ritual. There's just no way to know if the horse has "got it all together" until it actual faces the starter and leaves the gate. So many of them are just not ready for the whole afternoon show until they've experienced it that first time.

[Tom]

I am actually seeking out MSW races with FTS in them.
FTS are my #1 profit group theses days. You need to have some structure to how to evaluate them, but they can be very profitable, and you don""t have to worry about pace, speed, running styles....

I'll tell what factors I use -

1. Trainer's W% with FTS
2. Sire's W$ with FTS (in BRIS Ult PPs)
3. Workouts (as a plus factor)
4. Jockey/trainer combo record
5. Par for the race

Some of it is copyrighted, so I will tell you go to Quinn's Complete Handicapper book for ##1 and #2

Go to Barry Meadows new book for the QWSLR description (#3)

As far a T/J combo, I use it a plus factor, not an elimination.
Here is the general method -

First, determine of anything in the race was ever run to par for the MSW race - if yes, do not bet a FTS - move on.

If a second time starter has run close to par, ie, the second race improvement would normally equal par, yo can bet it, if the trainer's W5 for FTS is at least 11%

In a race devoid of horse already proven to be able to meet par, you can start looking at the FTS. USe the factors above to find any FTS that make the cut. You may have none, you may have 3 or 4.

In that case, I separate pretty much on my gut feeling of a race. Is on of the FTS trained Chad Brown andis it getting action? Do I have 3 contenders and two of them have trainers who win at 12% and one who wins at 30%? You get the idea.
And odds is the bottom line.

I like to go to StatsMaster to supplement the w% stats, which are pretty general in DRF and BRIS. If I have a 15% FTS trainer, and today's race is a route, does the stat hold true? Or turf, can he do that too? ot have to worry about speed, pace, race shapes leave me more time to dig a little deeper into other stuff the average beer-totin' track player is not going to do.

I am hitting about 35% doing this for the last few months.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I use a sophisticated and proprietary tote analysis that monitors and explores all of the mutual betting pools to determine which of the entries are the potential contenders.

that sounds very interesting


I've seen you post some nice selections.