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Old 07-19-2018, 02:16 AM   #16
crestridge
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Steve Fierro's "Four Quarters" discusses, if my memory is correct, three types of races, A,B,C; the C races are the most volatile, with less certainty concerning the dominate contenders. A,B, races, observes more dominate contenders, hence lower return, but higher probability of win rate. Myself, I concentrated on C races and turf, with lots of entrants (actually, my rule was races with only 10 entrants or more). This increased my chances of a better price. But....reduces ones opportunities. My dream was to play Hong Kong, hoping to use my software to locate data from there. Of course, that never happened. My software isn't compatible. Maybe one day we'll be able to locate good software for Hong Kong.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:19 AM   #17
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Funny you mention the 4Q's - I have been trying to incorporate it's principle into my betting. Deciding on a three or four contender matrix is harder than it sounds, and actually picking the line to use is an eye opener. I am assigning odds to everything now, and it is a ral learning experience. This is major shift in my game - I was always of the Jim Bradshaw mindset - an overlay is any horse that wins.

But what I am finding is that underlays are so far making me more money than overlays! If I have a predictable race, no unknowns, fairly obvious pace scenario, speed figs......and one of the horse is severely under a reasonable line, I am going with the idea that there must be a reason. If there is not an obviously over-bet horse, then I am looking for an overlay.

The key is setting the right line.
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Old 07-19-2018, 01:07 PM   #18
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Tom

I can almost guarantee, if you utilize Bayesian odds line approach (which is more difficult to achieve) you will benefit greatly. It takes practice/work, but very helpful.
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Old 07-19-2018, 03:23 PM   #19
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I've done a lot of testing of win wagers over the years and if the goal is to find a profitable method that doesn't require long hours of traditional pp handicapping (in other words, using a computer), the profitable ROI tests tend to have win percentages between 10 and 20%. This, of course, means that although the end result is positive (ROI), long run outs are expected. You could adjust the method to include more favorites to try and increase the win percentage to keep your sanity, but that always ends up significantly reducing the ROI.
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Old 07-19-2018, 04:48 PM   #20
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And I was betting 3 horses a race. It surprised me it was profitable for almost 300 races.

hmmm. Can I suggest that using 3 horses per race is the equivalent of reducing the sample size , thus making short term performance more variable.



Just a thought.
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Old 07-19-2018, 07:30 PM   #21
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hmmm. Can I suggest that using 3 horses per race is the equivalent of reducing the sample size , thus making short term performance more variable.



Just a thought.
It's definitely reducing the sample size of races. No doubt. But it gets you a bigger sample size of bets far more quickly. And a bet is a bet...

I'm not doing that anymore of course.
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Old 07-22-2018, 01:06 AM   #22
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I didn't change. I was looking to improve.

11% winners isn't actually something to get all that excited about.

The long losing streaks tend to get disheartening.

I didn't say I abandoned it...far from it...it's now a cornerstone that I am trying to make better.
What is your targeted win rate?
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Old 07-22-2018, 11:53 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I didn't change. I was looking to improve.

11% winners isn't actually something to get all that excited about.

The long losing streaks tend to get disheartening.
I got similar results from a system I tested on paper recently. The system got about a 9% strike rate. It bet 1 to 5 horses per race -- probably an average of 3. It went a period of 400 races where it broke even or lost a little, but then the profits went vertical for the next 1200.

Breaking even or losing for 400 races (which was about 4 months worth of races in my test) would be enough to make most people think the system needs to improve.

Even though the profits go vertical, eventually, you know it could hit another losing streak.

You could be in a losing streak and your system is actually a winning one. Or you could win for a long time and then when it goes flat or south for a long time you think something has changed with the betting public.

It reminds me of the advice Dr. Z gave in his book in "Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack". The place and show system might work for awhile and then stop working because too many others are using it. Then it might reverse course and start working again because others stop using it. Even he was getting similar kinds of results back in the 1980s.

Diversification might be the key. Bet at multiple tracks.

Or on the other hand, remember what Sartin preached: Know thy track. In which case, bet fewer races, but bet bigger amounts. Because you know your track so well you can be more confident in the outcomes.

Those are two different ways of approaching the game.

Either way, it's a tough game to beat.
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Last edited by highnote; 07-22-2018 at 11:55 PM.
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Old 07-23-2018, 01:16 AM   #24
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I bet basically every track...the only tracks I don't bet are tracks that aren't supported by HSH in the way that I use it...I have to ask Dave about this...

Tracks like HST, FMT, ARP, FP, and probably one or two others...
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Old 08-04-2018, 12:29 AM   #25
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So I'm 130 races into my next 500 race serious run...and I thought I had tinkered with things enough to get my win % up a little bit, but it's not budging.

I'm a little unhappy about this. But it's still sort of early in the run.

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Old 08-04-2018, 01:06 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
So I'm 130 races into my next 500 race serious run...and I thought I had tinkered with things enough to get my win % up a little bit, but it's not budging.

I'm a little unhappy about this. But it's still sort of early in the run.
Making money and unhappy.....

I dont get it....
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Old 08-04-2018, 01:24 AM   #27
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PA,

Have you considered making a bet on a low-priced horse as well, even if that horse is a slightly losing proposition?


In the early '60s, Alan Wilson wrote a book called The Casino Gambler's Guide.

In that book he cited an example of adding a losing proposition to a winning proposition to raise the optimum bet.

Specifically, he said suppose you had a horse that was 20/1 in every race that won 10% of the time.

(BTW, I seem to recall in the book, he said that 20/1 was a $40 payoff, which threw all of his calcs off a bit but the point was clear.)

But let's stick with 20/1 paying $42.

So, you make 10 bets, betting $2 each time and win once, returning $42.

Code:
$42.00  return
-20.00  bet
--------
+22.00 profit

22/20 = 110% advantage

opt bet% = advantage / odds

OptBet%= 110%/20 = 5.5% of bankroll.

Wilson then introduces the idea that you also have a 2/1 horse in each race that wins 30% of the time.

By combining the two bets in each race you wind up with:

Code:
$42.00 return  from 1 winner at $42.00
+18.00 return from 3 winners at $6.00 each
---------
$60.00  total return
-40.00  total bet on both horses
---------
+20.00  profit

20/40 = 50% advantage

$60.00 return divided by 4 wins = 
average Odds= $15 / $4 = 3.75 - 1 = 2.75/1

OptBet% = 50% / 2.75 = 18.18% of Bankroll
The point being that even though you've given up half your profit, now, after 10 races, you are winning 4 times instead of just once.

This increased consistency allows you to bet over 3x more money!



Now, the really interesting thing is that, in theory, the low odds horses you bet do not have to be in the same races as the prime bets.


This means that you do not have to bet an equal number of losing bets!

Thus, if you're hitting 10% of your bets and want to increase the hit rate a little, you could occasionally add a low-odds horse.



Just a thought.


Dave

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 08-04-2018 at 01:26 AM.
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Old 08-04-2018, 01:28 AM   #28
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I bet low odds horses more than you might think. But even they find a way to lose...
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Old 08-08-2018, 11:03 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
So I'm 130 races into my next 500 race serious run...and I thought I had tinkered with things enough to get my win % up a little bit, but it's not budging.

I'm a little unhappy about this. But it's still sort of early in the run.
Need an update from you.....What's going on?
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Old 08-08-2018, 11:12 PM   #30
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here u go...with 1 more race to go tonight

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