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01-30-2016, 05:10 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,132
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Smokey Image
Better pay attention..
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01-30-2016, 05:15 PM
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#2
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kash$
Better pay attention..
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For what, future Cal bred races?  He's a good horse but I don't think he is a Classics type, not even close.
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01-30-2016, 05:26 PM
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#3
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Sartin Methodology Fan
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Earth
Posts: 328
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Might be shaping up to being California Chrome redux.
__________________
"And there they go! It's Toupée going on ahead, Long Underwear has fallen behind, Toothpaste is being squeezed out on the rail as Banana joins the bunch, and Cabbage is trailing by a head."
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01-30-2016, 05:34 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,132
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
For what, future Cal bred races? He's a good horse but I don't think he is a Classics type, not even close. |
Frank screamed out his breeding during the stretch call..
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01-30-2016, 05:45 PM
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#5
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Psychotic Parakeet
Might be shaping up to being California Chrome redux.
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California Chrome was a faster horse at this point by a good margin, but stranger things have happened for sure. I'll be curious to see what number he ran today. He was certainly impressive visually.
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01-30-2016, 10:33 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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certainly looks legit... anyone wanna speculate on his next start?
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01-31-2016, 07:28 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Call me skeptical. Smokey ran six in 1:11.63 which is pretty pokey. No pace pressure to test the horse. A horse like Dortmund running his average race would be 5-10 lengths ahead of it at that point in the race. It is perhaps worth noting I said similar about AP after the Rebel last year but there is no comparison in talent level here. My guess is the G2 San Felipe March 12th next for Smokey. Even a place finish might secure connections enough Derby points if that's where they want to go.
Last edited by f2tornado; 01-31-2016 at 07:33 AM.
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02-01-2016, 01:39 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 506
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The chef-de-race site gave Smokey a -7. Mohaymen got a figure of -27 on the same day. CC got a -22 in the California Cup Derby in 2014. Judging by that, the triple crown trail looks like a futile quest. Maybe Smokey has just been running fast enough to beat who he is in against. Maybe his new trainer, Carla Gaines, can improve him many many lengths. The San Felipe should bring out some stronger competition. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does.
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02-01-2016, 03:23 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kevb
The chef-de-race site gave Smokey a -7. Mohaymen got a figure of -27 on the same day. CC got a -22 in the California Cup Derby in 2014. Judging by that, the triple crown trail looks like a futile quest. Maybe Smokey has just been running fast enough to beat who he is in against. Maybe his new trainer, Carla Gaines, can improve him many many lengths. The San Felipe should bring out some stronger competition. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does.
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whats those -7, -27, -22 number mean?
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02-01-2016, 04:10 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
whats those -7, -27, -22 number mean?
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Those are Dr. Roman's in house performance figures. These are not the same as speed figures (but they tend to be somewhat similar) as they take into account pace, energy, and speed. The more negative the PF the better the performance on Roman's house model. This stuff is all available at chef-de-race dot com. Don't go there if you think dosage is voodoo. I personally like how he extrapolates out to a 10F race and, sure enough, the horse in his top five modeled 10F time has won the Derby 12 of the last 17 years. Ironically, only half the Derby winners had a top 5 PF. In this case, the pieces of model data are superior to the final model figure.
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